Yep. I live on north end but work in South Parkersburg. Once you cross the river here, Nick Swisher is not a welcomed word.Originally Posted by MartyFan
On a side note, I haven't watched the news yet, but I am willing to bet that Nick being traded will be the lead story over the WVU hire.
Last edited by WVRed; 01-03-2008 at 08:12 PM.
I'm confused, are you adding to what I said or correcting what I said? I certainly understand the big picture of the book and the philosophy. But it seems there are few places to go at this point.
Question is what is now the market ineffiency? I don't know if there is a big enough one, perhaps defense. I don't think people do enough to put together a great defensive team, there are very few teams who seem to care significantly about it. The Angels seem to put major emphasis on stellar baserunning.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Brilliant trade for Oakland.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
BTW, for those who think the As are going into chronic hibernation and Beane has become irrelevant, Mark Shapriro and the Cleveland Indians say
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Well, it certainly takes an owner who's fully on board to be given that sort of latitude. Though Doug Melvin says hi as well. Not that Milwaukee had any real success to risk.BTW, for those who think the As are going into chronic hibernation and Beane has become irrelevant, Mark Shapriro and the Cleveland Indians say
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Beane was never about drafting "college players" per se.
He's always been about drafting value.
It should come as no surprise that when teams started drafting college pitchers in a big way (and overvaluing them in the process), that Beane would find better value among the high schoolers.
Beane is following the Florida model of rebuilding. Tear it down to the core so that you have more to work with on the rebuild. But I bet OAK spends a little more money than FLA does when the time comes to make the push.
I'd be talking to Beane about Harden, Blanton, Street and Crosby, just for fun.
Mostly adding.
The answer to the question of what is the current market inefficiency is probably little known at this point, at least among the broad spectrum. Because whenever the current market inefficiency is discovered across the board, everybody else scratches their heads and realizes they should probably look into it themselves, thereby eliminating that factor as a current and short-term future market efficiency.
I'd say defense was the market efficiency around two to four years ago, but not anymore. There's been a recent shift to something else, and by the time we figure out where that recent shift landed, it will have started shifting in yet another direction.
The trick for people like Beane is always trying to stay one step ahead of the curve, because that's what allows him to take advantage of the inefficiencies. There will always be some sort of market inefficiency in baseball; usually there are quite a few. Anything that provides positive value to a franchise while being simultaneously undervalued by the market qualifies.
There may be some point in the next 20 years when rabbit ball and the stolen base becomes a market inefficiency. If the market starts undervaluing its positive worth to a baseball franchise, it will qualify. Babe Ruth and his style of offense was at one time a market inefficiency. Black players and Latin players were market inefficiencies too.
The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
That was more of my point. He saw that now high school kids, specifically pitchers were being undervalued by some and dipped his toes into those waters. The 'gasp' was more for those who think its the dumbest thing ever.
Wouldn't you expect them too?
Hamilton is incredibly risky when you consider his age and his history. I think the entire reason Hamilton was scooped up by Special K was for one year and then to spin for more "potential"...Could he have gotten more? Maybe
"Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."
I used to work in radio in Parkersburg nearly 20 years ago...lived in Belpre...still have a lot of good friends there.
I would bet you are right about the lead story on WTAP.
"Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."
I think what the A's are doing is very logical. They have a new stadium project that carries a need for $500k in financing and they want to be a team on the rise when they move in. To me it makes perfect sense to send off players who won't be around by 2012 for younger guys who should be jelling at about that time. All the while saving the cost of the Arb increases or already signed guarantees to help with the financing. This is big business and sometimes long term financial moves are necessary.
So, you want to acquire Joe Blanton without giving up the farm? Agree to take Mark Kotsay as part of the deal. I'm guessing Oakland would be after guys like Stubbs, Thompson and Valaika who will still be relatively cheap by 2012 more than they would be after guys like Bailey and Votto who are closer to the majors and could be deep into arb by then. Agree to take on Kotsay's $8 Million albatross for 2008 and that would be very attractive I'd think. With luck, you would have a plus defender for CF this year to boot. Its all my speculation of course, but it would seem to explain why they have agreed to take so many guys who are still a ways away from the big leagues in the Swisher and especially Haren deals.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
FWIW and it's mostly gut instinct but I think this may very well be what's "right now" in terms of market inefficiency. I don't know where I came up with it but I have been thinking this for at least a couple of months.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Who is saying that besides your strawman?BTW, for those who think the As are going into chronic hibernation and Beane has become irrelevant, Mark Shapriro and the Cleveland Indians say
You're right on the value point, but there's also a contextual side to things that doug really has never understood. There are times when a team can afford to select a potentially-higher upside HS arm versus a potentially-lower ceiling college arm. Heck, when your team is in a solid position at the MLB level from a player and/or financial resource position, taking a shot at a HS arm in the mid to late first round isn't a bad idea. That's how the Yankees were able to find a guy like Philip Hughes (who took little time to leapfrog Homer Bailey) at the 23rd slot in the first round of the 2004 draft.
If a market correction produced a paradigm shift in draft strategy, I might suggest that such a shift is limited to HS arms who might have slid into the mid-to-late first round. However, I'd need a lot more data to conclude that such a shift actually occurred recently.
From what we've seen, it's held that unless a HS pitcher is quite obviously the overall best arm in the draft, there's pretty much no chance that he'll turn into a long-term consistent ace if he's selected in the top 10 picks of a draft. The kids I describe have been consistently over-drafted throughout history. It's an inefficiency that refuses to die.
As for whatever "Moneyball" may have revealed about Beane's strategy of exploiting market inefficiencies as relating to drafting, that book was released in 2003. I hardly think it caught on quickly enough to create a quick shift in focus from HS arms to college arms. Even if it affected teams as early as 2004, here are the A's pitching selections from 2004 through 2007 through the first three rounds of each draft:
2004
Huston Street (Pick 40- College)
Michael Rogers (Pick 49- College)
Jason Windsor (Pick 97- College)
2005
Craig Italiano (Pick 53- HS)
Jared Lansford (Pick 69- HS)
Vincent Mazzaro (Pick 101- HS)
2006
Trevor Cahill (Pick 66- HS)
2007
James Simmons (Pick 26- College)
Sean Doolittle (Pick 41- College)
Sam Demel (Pick 120- College)
It's not like Beane has been hoarding early-draft HS arms recently. There are zero first round HS arms on that list. He didn't do it in 2003 either, BTW. And Trevor Cahill might end up being an interesting find there. He put up really good peripherals as a 19-year old in the Midwest League last season (0.26 HR/9, 10.00 K/9, 3.42 BB/9). If he were a Reds' prospect, we'd be all Homer Bailey-excited about him. But because Cahill was selected with pick 66 rather than pick 7, most folks have probably never heard of him.
The centerpiece of the deal was obviously Gio Gonzalez. Beane's not acquiring Gonzalez as if he were drafting a high school pitcher. He's allowed the White Sox and Phillies to push him through the equivalent of Minor League "college". Ditto for Ryan Sweeney. De Los Santos is reported to be 21 years old. In fact, the only arm Beane has acquired who's even close to HS age is soon-to-be 20-year old Brett Anderson (in the Haren Deal). The other two (Eveland, Smith) are 24 years old.
If Beane is an expert on exploiting market inefficiencies, do ya' think that maybe the current inefficiency is in the area of acquiring other young players (regardless of original HS/College status) that other teams have trained for you?
Beane isn't doing what you say he's doing. In fact, he's been busy this winter doing quite the opposite.
And considering the quality of the Nick Swisher trade, I have a feeling that he misses Paul DePodesta more than ever.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
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