Swisher to White Sox

[RedsManRick]

I don't disagree, but it's still no fun to put up a Rip Van Winkle sign on the franchise. The A's are going down for a long snooze.

Better a strong solid nap for a few years than a decade (decades?) of unproductive insomnia.

[RedsManRick]

I find it hard that Beane could be lauded by some as a genius for years and now is just clueless.

Earlier this offseason he made a quote that I thought was brilliant. It was something along the lines of "There's no use being in the middle." If you are just treading water and your ceiling is just being competitive, then what's the use of paying for a middle of the road team? Oakland had an $80 million payroll this past season according to USA Today. As an owner, I would be unhappy if I was paying that in Oakland and not making noise in the playoffs. Tear it down and build it back up.

If he thinks that they had no shot with the current roster and can allocate those funds to making the team a monster in 3-5 years, then he is a very smart and courageous man. I've wanted Cincy to do this the past few years.

See my sig

[lollipopcurve]

Nice run by Beane. Guess he realized Haren/Blanton/Harden weren't Hudson/Zito/Mulder.

[M2]

Better a strong solid nap for a few years than a decade (decades?) of unproductive insomnia.

Doubt Beane will be around when the franchise wakes up though. Plus, I suspect this nap will last a few years longer than planned. It's real easy to get stuck in a vicious unproductive cycle of selling off all your fourth and fifth year players. Ultimately, players like that are what helps you win.

Guess he realized Haren/Blanton/Harden weren't Hudson/Zito/Mulder.

And he doesn't have the juice bar offense of Giambi, Tejada and Chavez to put runs on the board either.

[Ron Madden]

I know there are question marks concerning Hamilton, but it looks like the A's got far more talent in return for Swisher than the Reds did for Hamilton.

I guess we'll have to wait and see how everything turns out. Time will tell.

[Mario-Rijo]

Doubt Beane will be around when the franchise wakes up though. Plus, I suspect this nap will last a few years longer than planned. It's real easy to get stuck in a vicious unproductive cycle of selling off all your fourth and fifth year players. Ultimately, players like that are what helps you win.



And he doesn't have the juice bar offense of Giambi, Tejada and Chavez to put runs on the board either.

I wonder that as well. But their new park opens in 2012 I believe, so I wonder if that's where he is trying to get them too. If they can field a good team that year it should do wonders for their attendance for a couple of years. Perhaps changing a lot for the small market phenomenon.

[M2]

I wonder that as well. But their new park opens in 2012 I believe, so I wonder if that's where he is trying to get them too. If they can field a good team that year it should do wonders for their attendance for a couple of years. Perhaps changing a lot for the small market phenomenon.

Perhaps, though we've seen the danger of picking a far off future year for the franchise to magically awake.

[RedsManRick]

Doubt Beane will be around when the franchise wakes up though. Plus, I suspect this nap will last a few years longer than planned. It's real easy to get stuck in a vicious unproductive cycle of selling off all your fourth and fifth year players. Ultimately, players like that are what helps you win.

And he doesn't have the juice bar offense of Giambi, Tejada and Chavez to put runs on the board either.

I don't about that. People said the same about him when he traded away the big 3. Of course, I agree that ownership probably won't be as patient with him during this rebuild as they were with the current failed one.

The latter point is a big one. That cornerstone offensive talent is perhaps the most underappreciated part of the "Big 3" era. They were scoring 800 runs a year, nearly 900 in 2001. The big offense, no pitching Reds of the 2000's have averaged around 750.

[westofyou]

I wonder that as well. But their new park opens in 2012 I believe, so I wonder if that's where he is trying to get them too. If they can field a good team that year it should do wonders for their attendance for a couple of years. Perhaps changing a lot for the small market phenomenon.

It's an iffy gamble, they move down south and suck they might be having the same trouble with a new park that Cincinnati had with theirs, a crappy team.. add in no direct public transportation and you get a reason for many die hards to not make the trip.

[Mario-Rijo]

It's an iffy gamble, they move down south and suck they might be having the same trouble with a new park that Cincinnati had with theirs, a crappy team.. add in no direct public transportation and you get a reason for many die hards to not make the trip.

I am not familiar with the area so I'll have to take your word on that. But yeah that's always the thing, put a good product on the field and they will come.

There's the part in moneyball where they are in their pre-draft meetings the year they ironically chose Swisher. And someone states that "in 5 yrs everyone will be drafting this way" or something of that nature and Depodesta I believe it was said "I hope not". Well just a shade over 5 yrs and not everyone is doing it but enough teams have adopted enough of a similiar philosophy to thin out Beane's talent pool.

I think it's time to re-invent yourself there Billy.

[dougdirt]

I am not familiar with the area so I'll have to take your word on that. But yeah that's always the thing, put a good product on the field and they will come.

There's the part in moneyball where they are in their pre-draft meetings the year they ironically chose Swisher. And someone states that "in 5 yrs everyone will be drafting this way" or something of that nature and Depodesta I believe it was said "I hope not". Well just a shade over 5 yrs and not everyone is doing it but enough teams have adopted enough of a similiar philosophy to thin out Beane's talent pool.

I think it's time to re-invent yourself there Billy.

He has. While he still values OBP, he seems to be targeting different types of players on his MLB roster and targeting, gasp, high schoolers in the draft.

[Cedric]

I find it hard that Beane could be lauded by some as a genius for years and now is just clueless.

Earlier this offseason he made a quote that I thought was brilliant. It was something along the lines of "There's no use being in the middle." If you are just treading water and your ceiling is just being competitive, then what's the use of paying for a middle of the road team? Oakland had an $80 million payroll this past season according to USA Today. As an owner, I would be unhappy if I was paying that in Oakland and not making noise in the playoffs. Tear it down and build it back up.

If he thinks that they had no shot with the current roster and can allocate those funds to making the team a monster in 3-5 years, then he is a very smart and courageous man. I've wanted Cincy to do this the past few years.

What's brilliant about saying "there's no use in finishing third or fourth in our division every year."

Billy Beane as a GM has been refreshing and something major league baseball needed. I'm just beginning to wonder if he can build a decent lineup. People would be eating him alive if he was the Reds GM and relying on players like Jay Payton and Eric Chavez to produce runs. His contract for Chavez looked terrible at the time and it looks even worse now. I seriously doubt he ever wins without ever chasing a high ceiling bat. You aren't going to consistently win in that division with Dan Johnson and Bobby Crosby types as your young, star talent.

We all heard how amazing those players are and neither have turned out to be even league average. Is that bad luck or relying too much on statistics and not scouting for players with high ceilings and some flaws in their game? Tough question IMO.

[Cyclone792]

I am not familiar with the area so I'll have to take your word on that. But yeah that's always the thing, put a good product on the field and they will come.

There's the part in moneyball where they are in their pre-draft meetings the year they ironically chose Swisher. And someone states that "in 5 yrs everyone will be drafting this way" or something of that nature and Depodesta I believe it was said "I hope not". Well just a shade over 5 yrs and not everyone is doing it but enough teams have adopted enough of a similiar philosophy to thin out Beane's talent pool.

I think it's time to re-invent yourself there Billy.

The landscape of market inefficiencies are markedly different today than they were five years ago when the book was written and published. Moneyball wasn't about on-base percentage or drafting a certain way; it was about taking advantage of the current market inefficiencies in the game. When the book was being written, on-base percentage and a certain drafting style were the market inefficiencies. Nowadays, that's not the case and the market inefficiencies have shifted.

Also, it should be noted that whenever the "current" market inefficiency becomes somewhat known, it's no longer the current market inefficiency. The keen observer can find traces of the current market inefficiency, but by the time it becomes obvious it either is a thing of the past entirely or has evolved with a new twist.

[Cedric]

He has. While he still values OBP, he seems to be targeting different types of players on his MLB roster and targeting, gasp, high schoolers in the draft.

It's hard to win over the long haul without having some star power in your lineup. Beane is about five years late in realizing that he should have been going after some raw players with high ceilings. Filling your minor leagues with no high ceiling offensive players isn't very smart. I don't advise the Bowden method, but somewhere down the line you need to take risks like that in the draft nistead of going after Milton Bradley types because you are that desperate.

[dougdirt]

It's hard to win over the long haul without having some star power in your lineup. Beane is about five years late in realizing that he should have been going after some raw players with high ceilings. Filling your minor leagues with no high ceiling offensive players isn't very smart. I don't advise the Bowden method, but somewhere down the line you need to take risks like that in the draft nistead of going after Milton Bradley types because you are that desperate.

Sounds like he is going after those players from other teams systems currently. Maybe he figured out that they didn't have any of those types.