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View Poll Results: Who is the Reds #25 Prospect?

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  • Brett Bartles

    2 2.38%
  • Scott Carroll

    3 3.57%
  • Tzu-Kai Chui

    1 1.19%
  • Chris Dickerson

    21 25.00%
  • Richie Gardner

    9 10.71%
  • Rafael Gonzalez

    1 1.19%
  • Sean Henry

    0 0%
  • Danny Herrera

    2 2.38%
  • Evan Hildenbrandt

    2 2.38%
  • Paul Janish

    6 7.14%
  • Derrik Lutz

    7 8.33%
  • Juan Rafael

    0 0%
  • Ramon Ramirez

    3 3.57%
  • Justin Reed

    6 7.14%
  • Justin Turner

    19 22.62%
  • Phil Valiquette

    1 1.19%
  • Other (please specify)

    1 1.19%
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Thread: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by BigRed07 View Post
    Only 1 outfielder in the Reds system had more errors than Dickerson (11) and that was Szymanski (13). Hopper made 1 error in 190+ chances in the big leagues. I think I would take Hopper over Dickerson or Patterson.
    Errors are a fairly poor way of evaluating defense. Some players have a lot more range, therefore make more plays on balls than others, which could lead to more errors, but likely more outs.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    I agree with you on that, but 11 errors won't win you any Gold Gloves either. Would you say that Dickerson is a better defensive outfielder than Hopper?

  4. #18
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Errors are a fairly poor way of evaluating defense. Some players have a lot more range, therefore make more plays on balls than others, which could lead to more errors, but likely more outs.
    Range Factor might be a good compromise. Is there some way to determine the RF of Chris Dickerson? I have noticed that only MLB players seem to have a RF stat, and I am not sure if they track that statistic in the minors.

  5. #19
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by BigRed07 View Post
    I agree with you on that, but 11 errors won't win you any Gold Gloves either. Would you say that Dickerson is a better defensive outfielder than Hopper?
    Yes, I would.

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Range Factor might be a good compromise. Is there some way to determine the RF of Chris Dickerson? I have noticed that only MLB players seem to have a RF stat, and I am not sure if they track that statistic in the minors.
    There used to be a site that did it, but range factor is actually still a pretty poor stat unless you are trying to compare two players from the same team at the same position.

  7. #21
    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    I went with Janish, not because I believe he has much of an upside, but because I feel he's the safest bet to actually make it to the Major Leagues. I fully expect him to see some time as a spare glove in Cincinnati this year. I don't expect his bat to ever be more than Castroesque, but if any infielder goes down (and one will) he's going to get the callup.

  8. #22
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    I went with Janish, not because I believe he has much of an upside, but because I feel he's the safest bet to actually make it to the Major Leagues. I fully expect him to see some time as a spare glove in Cincinnati this year. I don't expect his bat to ever be more than Castroesque, but if any infielder goes down (and one will) he's going to get the callup.

    I think Janish is a good pick here. This poll is very stats driven so it makes sense he would fall, he had some poor offensive numbers last year, but my guess is the Reds internally have him higher on their list.

    Obviously an excellent fielder, Janish played last year as a 24 year old. At AA he had an OBP of .358. He had 54 Ks in 324 at bats, with no power. One could argue that, since he hits so many balls in play, if his "luck" factor improved he could have some decent seasons as a backup infielder. If he gets his walks up a bit more, that would help too.

    Janish didn't do as well at AAA. But he is still only 25 and perhaps next year he will adjust to AAA pitching.

    Minor league stats often don't tell the whole story. When a utility type player can keep the ball in play offensively, better things can happen for him.

  9. #23
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think Janish is a good pick here. This poll is very stats driven so it makes sense he would fall, he had some poor offensive numbers last year, but my guess is the Reds internally have him higher on their list.

    Obviously an excellent fielder, Janish played last year as a 24 year old. At AA he had an OBP of .358. He had 54 Ks in 324 at bats, with no power. One could argue that, since he hits so many balls in play, if his "luck" factor improved he could have some decent seasons as a backup infielder. If he gets his walks up a bit more, that would help too.

    Janish didn't do as well at AAA. But he is still only 25 and perhaps next year he will adjust to AAA pitching.

    Minor league stats often don't tell the whole story. When a utility type player can keep the ball in play offensively, better things can happen for him.
    Anybody who attended ST in "07 would tell you the Reds sure played him alot. Janish started or played significant innings in the 4 games I went to. Maybe they were just giving him another shot, or maybe they see something they like....Dunno.

  10. #24
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    I have yet to vote for anyone who hasn't had success at AA. It is a long way from Billings to Cincinnati. Guys like Dickerson or Pelland may be role players at best in the bigs but they will get a shot and some of the guys already on our list will never see the bigs.
    Can we take this to mean you voted for Dorn fairly high up? I sure did. I have a couple of friends who played Minor League ball, and they both say that AA is the make or break point. If you are successful at AA, you've got the talent to play MLB. Then, it becomes a mental question of do you want it bad enough to focus your life around making the Big Leagues.
    Last edited by gedred69; 01-08-2008 at 10:02 PM. Reason: additional thought

  11. #25
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    I have yet to vote for anyone who hasn't had success at AA. It is a long way from Billings to Cincinnati. Guys like Dickerson or Pelland may be role players at best in the bigs but they will get a shot and some of the guys already on our list will never see the bigs.
    Thank You.

    There are many good reasons to love this poll, there are just as many reasons to take it with a grain of salt.

    I see no harm in having fun with it but let's hope nobody takes it as a depth chart.


  12. #26
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    How does Marcus McBeth still count as a prospect? He has been in the the majors and is 28

  13. #27
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by bearcatfan24 View Post
    How does Marcus McBeth still count as a prospect? He has been in the the majors and is 28
    He still qualifies as a rookie. Fwiw, he didn't start pitching until relatively recently.

  14. #28
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect vote #25

    Quote Originally Posted by bearcatfan24 View Post
    How does Marcus McBeth still count as a prospect? He has been in the the majors and is 28
    He won't be 28 until August. But the real issue is that he still qualifies for a rookie and has just 163 professional innings under his belt. Compare that to say, Tyler Pelland (494 IP), Homer Bailey (353 IP), Matt Maloney (376.1), or Johnny Cueto (348.1).

    His age is certainly the #1 factor in why he's ranked where he is, but it would be wrong to assume that he's not going to have a decent major league career just because he got a late start as a pitcher.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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