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Thread: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

  1. #1
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    Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    M's, Reds still interested in O's Bedard
    by Ken Rosenthal
    Updated: January 7, 2008, 11:34 PM EST 3 comments

    Andy MacPhail, the Orioles' president of baseball operations, left his options open when he said last month that there was a "strong likelihood" the team would not trade left-hander Erik Bedard.

    Smart move.

    The Mariners are continuing their aggressive pursuit of Bedard, major-league sources say, and there are growing indications that the teams could be moving closer to a deal.

    The Reds also remain interested in Bedard, but the Mariners are willing to trade their top outfield prospect, Adam Jones, while the Reds will not part with their best minor-league outfielder, Jay Bruce.

    For the Orioles, the final approval for a Bedard deal would rest with owner Peter Angelos, who has long resisted trading veterans for prospects but hired MacPhail last June with the understanding that the team needed a new direction.

    The Orioles' trade of shortstop Miguel Tejada to the Astros for five younger players in December signaled that Angelos might finally be willing to endure a lengthy rebuilding process.

    But Bedard, a homegrown product, has greater sentimental value for the Orioles than Tejada — and trading him likely would lead to a separate deal involving second baseman Brian Roberts, an Angelos favorite.

    Without Bedard, who went 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA last season and set a franchise record with 221 strikeouts, there would be little reason for the Orioles to keep Roberts, who also is two years away from free agency.

    The Cubs remain the most likely fit for Roberts. The Mets made a strong run at Bedard at the general managers' meetings in November. The Indians, who have explored trades for impact players all off-season, like both Roberts and Bedard.

    Perhaps the Indians could land one of the Orioles' stars, but it is highly unlikely that they could put together a blockbuster to obtain both, the way the Tigers did in acquiring third baseman Miguel Cabrera and left-hander Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins.

    Mariners GM Bill Bavasi has said it is unlikely that he will trade his top pitching prospect, right-hander Brandon Morrow. But even if the M's decline to part with Morrow, they can put together an attractive package for Bedard.

    Jones, compared by some scouts to Torii Hunter, would become the Orioles' long-term answer in center field, developing alongside right fielder Nick Markakis.

    The Mariners also are willing to include catcher Jeff Clement and third baseman Matt Tuiasosopo, sources say. The Orioles, however, might prefer a choice of left-hander Tony Butler, right-hander Chris Tillman and 17-year-old shortstop Carlos Triunfel.

    The A's strong returns for right-hander Dan Haren and outfielder Nick Swisher in recent trades seemingly has increased the Orioles' leverage. The addition of Bedard, meanwhile, would give the Mariners a potentially dynamic rotation to compete with the Angels in the American League West.

    The M's recently signed free-agent right-hander Carlos Silva, and righty Felix Hernandez, lefty Jarrod Washburn and right Miguel Batista are their returning starters. Morrow is a candidate for either the rotation or the bullpen.

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7...0813162&ATT=49

    I think the die was cast when we traded Josh Hamilton. He could have been an essential trading piece along with Bailey/Cueto to land Bedard. The Mariners are now willing to trade 2 of their top prospects in Jones and Clement, and we no longer have the center fielder the Orioles want unless we are willing to trade Bruce to land Bedard. It seems unlikely at this point, so I expect we will soon see Bedard in Seattle.
    Last edited by AmarilloRed; 01-08-2008 at 12:32 AM.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    That's basically the equivalent of Cueto and Votto and a guy in the 15-20 range in prospects.

    Votto = Clement
    Cueto = Jones

    Assuming 6 years of Cueto will be equal to 2 years of Bedard, that's like giving away 6 years of Votto for free.

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Let Mariners have him we will be OK without him.

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Bedard is a good pitcher and if the M's can get him without giving up Morrow that would be impressive. The Orioles get a stud in Adam Jones. The M's would be extremely wise to hold onto Triunfel, down the road he'll likely have more value than any of the players in that deal.

    The Reds are winners if they can stay out of it. They can not get Bedard without losing Bailey and Bailey is currently underrated while Bedard is hyped a bit.

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Quote Originally Posted by BEETTLEBUG View Post
    Let Mariners have him we will be OK without him.
    I agree! Bedard won 13 games last year. ONLY 4 were against teams w/ winning records (if I'm not mistaken).
    SECOND PLACE DOESN'T CONCERN ME

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Why are'nt the Yankees.Red Sox,others involved in pursuing Bedard? Is Bedard's value not worth aquiring? Does Santana's contract exclude most teams,therefore overvaluing Bedard?Are the rich still oppressing the poor?

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Santana is only worth trading for if he signs an extension and it was made clear to teams that he wants NY so effectively most teams are out. Bedard is overvalued due to scarcity. There is just not any quality pitching that is available. Pitching is at a premium plus Bedard has a nice contract

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Quote Originally Posted by wlf WV View Post
    Why are'nt the Yankees.Red Sox,others involved in pursuing Bedard? Is Bedard's value not worth aquiring? Does Santana's contract exclude most teams,therefore overvaluing Bedard?Are the rich still oppressing the poor?
    It's my understanding that the Orioles management will not trade Bedard within their own division and that totally eliminates the Yankees and Red Sox from the trade table.
    "I tried to play golf, but I found out I wasn't very good." -Joey Votto on his offseason hobby search

    An MLB.com reporter asked what one thing Votto couldn’t do. “I can’t skate or play hockey,” Votto said. “Well, I can skate ... but I can’t stop.”

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Quote Originally Posted by larryboy View Post
    Santana is only worth trading for if he signs an extension and it was made clear to teams that he wants NY so effectively most teams are out. Bedard is overvalued due to scarcity. There is just not any quality pitching that is available. Pitching is at a premium plus Bedard has a nice contract
    He has no contract. He is arbitration eligible, and will be getting HUGE salary raises for the next two years, then will more than likely apply for Free Agency.

    This is basically a rent-a-player for two years, but not at a bargain price. The only way he stays, IMO, is if we win, and we offer to pay him as the highest pitcher on the staff. I'd give it 40% chance that we could keep him longer term.

    That being said, I'd take the gamble, as 2 years of Bedard would mean more to this Franchise than 2 years of BOTH Bailey and Cueto shuffling between the Minors and cutting their teeth in Majors.

    We need MO-mentum, and the window is small IMO, small enough for 2 years of a Bedard-type to help out perfectly. Even if he walked in 2010, we will have a better idea of who's left (at least 3 of 4) of Bailey/Cueto/Maloney/Wood to fill out the #5 SP position - or look at FA/trades again. Meahwhile, we're challenging for the playoffs, increasing attendance, which increases payroll, which increases our abillity to sign/extend good players, which helps us challenge for the playoffs, cycle continues...

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    The Red Sox then won't move towards Bedard for fear of allowing the Yankees a cheaper acquisition.(in terms of talent traded for Santana) It's a soap opera I'm tired of.

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    2 years of club control at arby prices rather than free agent prices is a nice contract for a pitcher of this quality, go see Zito's contract or the numbers Santana will get

    I agree he's not at a bargain price and I would not give up the reported pakage the M's may pay or give up Bailey for Bedard. I just feel Bailey's upside is underpriced in the market and he may be as good as Bedard in two years (minority view on my my part). That's a longer view than Bleeds but that's why there always buyers and sellers for the same talent.

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    He has no contract. He is arbitration eligible, and will be getting HUGE salary raises for the next two years, then will more than likely apply for Free Agency.

    This is basically a rent-a-player for two years, but not at a bargain price. The only way he stays, IMO, is if we win, and we offer to pay him as the highest pitcher on the staff. I'd give it 40% chance that we could keep him longer term.

    That being said, I'd take the gamble, as 2 years of Bedard would mean more to this Franchise than 2 years of BOTH Bailey and Cueto shuffling between the Minors and cutting their teeth in Majors.

    We need MO-mentum, and the window is small IMO, small enough for 2 years of a Bedard-type to help out perfectly. Even if he walked in 2010, we will have a better idea of who's left (at least 3 of 4) of Bailey/Cueto/Maloney/Wood to fill out the #5 SP position - or look at FA/trades again. Meahwhile, we're challenging for the playoffs, increasing attendance, which increases payroll, which increases our abillity to sign/extend good players, which helps us challenge for the playoffs, cycle continues...

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    Ageed,only if the long term commitment is there from ownership to spend money and continue to improve organization in all aspects.We must spend more for less for the time being,hoping for long term goals.

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Quote Originally Posted by wlf WV View Post
    The Red Sox then won't move towards Bedard for fear of allowing the Yankees a cheaper acquisition.(in terms of talent traded for Santana) It's a soap opera I'm tired of.

    There is more than one team in NY. I think the Mets get Santana - eventually. Either way it will be interesting.

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    Quote Originally Posted by larryboy View Post
    2 years of club control at arby prices rather than free agent prices is a nice contract for a pitcher of this quality, go see Zito's contract or the numbers Santana will get

    I agree he's not at a bargain price and I would not give up the reported pakage the M's may pay or give up Bailey for Bedard. I just feel Bailey's upside is underpriced in the market and he may be as good as Bedard in two years (minority view on my my part). That's a longer view than Bleeds but that's why there always buyers and sellers for the same talent.
    I wouldn't prefer to give up Bailey either - I'd trade Cueto. He's more of a control guy, but Bailey has WAY more Stuff and Upside.

    Doing that would also allow Bailey to start - and possibly end - his season in AAA, while our SP roster looked like this:

    Harang
    Bedard
    Arroyo
    Belisle
    Volquez

    Arroyo and Belisle are ABOVE average at #3 and #4 respectively, and Volquez is WAY Above average at #5. Otherwise, we are forced to "stand pat" with:

    Harang
    Arroyo
    Belisle

    2 of 4: Volquez/Bailey/Cueto/FA TBD(Hernandez Leiber)??

    Arroyo at #2 and Belisle at #3 respectively, are overmatched - as they were last year - in attempting to be AVERAGE starters, at best, for their spots in the rotation. Then you have to rely on a FA TBD to step in at #4 assuming it's not an injury risk, or you're asking Volquez to be #4 and a rookie to be #5.

    The first lineup challenges for the Division RIGHT AWAY, with wiggle room since every pitcher 2-5 is ABOVE Average to start.

    The second lineup is BELOW AVERAGE 2-5, and you PRAY that ALL of them improve through the year - just to be AVERAGE, and 1-2 of them to have breakout years.

    I'll take #1, and give up ONE of my PROSPECT top 4 AAA pitchers included in a deal, for 2 years of #2/#1 SP quality. No Hesitation.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS

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    Re: Could the Reds lose Bedard to the Mariners

    If Bailey has more upside ,does that mean Cueto is upsidedown.


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