As to Dickerson's exagerrated defensive ability- ZiPS only projected him to be an average defensive major league CF. Now I know, it is tough to project minor leaguer's defensive ability, and that is exactly what Dan Szymborski said when I asked him about it, but he had Stubbs and Bruce as very good CF's. Those guys are less advanced than Dickerson, so maybe the stats say something about Dickerson's defense that the scouting reports don't?
What does Dan use to project these 'defensive' projections?Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*
I've been looking for the last half hour and the only things I can come up with are the STATS and BIS zone ratings. maybe this will help: when asked about Encarnacion's defense, Dan anwsered:
I have Encarnacion at 3 runs worse than average the last 2 years. I'm projecting him at 5 runs worse, which is just above my threshold for FR.
PMR has him at roughly 10 runs worse total over the last 2 years (and really good in 2005, oddly enough). CHONE has him significantly worse (12 runs below average for 2008). I can't rightly use either of these totals together with my system, simply because I'm fairly certain the creators wouldn't be huge fans of that (I wouldn't ask either as it would put them in an awkward position, especially Chone).
Also, when asked about Hunter Pence's CF defense he had this to say:
PMR had Pence 2 outs worse than average. The Dial LW method had his range at 3 runs worse than average and an arm 1 better than average. The only UZR I've got is MGL's mid-season update with Pence 1 run better than average.
There is no ZR for minor leaguers to my knowledge, so if thats what he uses then it doesn't apply to Dickerson or Bruce for that matter.
You've got a point, but there has to be some method to his madness. I don't think he just throws a dart at a dartboard to determine his defensive projections...
Don't pay much attention to those ZIPS defensive ratings. He basically just guesstimates.
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"Sit over here next to Johnathan (Bench)...sit right here, he's smart."--Sparky Anderson
Wow, this is pretty close we might end up having to call a tie.
maybe one of these guys could cry like Hillary and wrap this thing up
Chris Dickerson calls for change!maybe one of these guys could cry like Hillary and wrap this thing up
BIS does it. Not sure if it is published to the public though. I thought it was somewhere. I'll look though.
Interesting. Let me know what you find out.
I voted Dickerson with the rationale being that he's one step away from the majors while Turner will need to make three jumps. Dickerson also played quite well in the AFL. He WILL play in the majors in his career, maybe not for long, but he'll have an entry in the Baseball Encyclopedia. That's something you can't say with surety about Turner.
Last edited by M2; 01-10-2008 at 04:30 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
My thoughts exactly.
Let's end this, Dickerson has now won twice -- in the first poll by two votes and he is up 3 on this won.
I voted for Justin Turner again. I just don't think Dickerson can hit in the major leagues.
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