Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard

[M2]

Popped for Montreal. His peak was 140 points higher in Colorado.

And from what I have heard, a .371 Babip at home and .335 Babip on the road is not something you should count on every year. Unless you move to Coors the next season, where career Babips of .385 are all the rage.

First you say Walker didn't develop power until he went to Colorado, now it's he had more power at his peak (hardly a surprise), which happened to be spent in Coors.

And now it's Coors BABIP. For the record, Coors in those years never produced anything like a .358 overall BABIP. Walker also finished with a career .332 BABIP. It's the sign of an outrageously good hitter, which Walker was.

Of course, this all still overlooks that if you normalize for Coors, if you compare Walker to a Coors-inflated average, what you end up with is a guy with an OPS+ identical to Ken Griffey Jr. and Duke Snider, who, and this can't be said enough, had the same total career as Larry Walker.

The thing with Walker is that he was all over the map. While talented, he was severly inconsistent.

1) Only 4 years with over 26 HRs.
2) Only 6 years with over 86 RBI.
3) What happened to the power in 1998 and 2000?

I didn't see him as a true great. A good player all around? Sure...but I don't think you can discount that Coors advantage. Look at some of those home/away splits when he was at Colorado. Except for 1997, they were obscene. Who the hell has routine Babips well over .400 for half the season?

I think you're more all over the map than Walker ever was. Walker's 52nd in career HR and 89th in career RBIs, hardly the mark of a guy who struggled in those categories.

He got injured and played half seasons in 1996 (which I assume you meant instead of 1998, which was a monster season for him) and 2000. Big deal, blips in the overall excellence of his career. Mind you, all those injuries did is turn him into a good hitter instead of a dynamite one.

He spent his career well outside media hotbeds and apparently you took him for granted, which is too bad. You missed one hell of a player, probably the prototypical RF.

[SteelSD]

An aside from this ringing endorsement, I find it funny that these sorts of once in a generation talents, as guys like Bruce are frequently described, tend to come around every year...

Baseball America citations from the 2006 top 3 prospects list:

1. Delmon Young: "Delmon's going to be as good as Delmon wants to be. He can do whatever he puts his mind to do." --anonymous scout

2. Justin Upton: "If you stick him in center field right now, he could be an all-star in two years." --anonymous scouting director

3. Brandon Wood: "He's still going to get better. He looks like the next Cal Ripken to me." --San Jose manager Lenn Sakata

Hyperbole is always in vogue for prospects. Brandon Wood is the next Cal Ripken. Justin Upton is a 2008 All Star. Delmon Young can, via sheer willpower, do whatever it is he wants. That's why Young was dealt for Matt Garza. Jay Bruce is the next Larry Walker- which isn't even an original comparison considering that he's been touted as such since before he was drafted. And if Bruce does become the next Larry Walker, then that pretty much sucks for us, because Larry Walker didn't become what we think of as "Larry Walker" until he was 27 years old.

[dougdirt]

Come on now steel.... sucks for us? Larry Walkers first 6 seasons in the majors he had OPS+ numbers of 112, 127, 142, 120, 151 and 130.... Yeah, that is something that would really suck for us a whole lot.

[edabbs44]

First you say Walker didn't develop power until he went to Colorado, now it's he had more power at his peak (hardly a surprise), which happened to be spent in Coors.

And now it's Coors BABIP. For the record, Coors in those years never produced anything like a .358 overall BABIP. Walker also finished with a career .332 BABIP. It's the sign of an outrageously good hitter, which Walker was.

Of course, this all still overlooks that if you normalize for Coors, if you compare Walker to a Coors-inflated average, what you end up with is a guy with an OPS+ identical to Ken Griffey Jr. and Duke Snider, who, and this can't be said enough, had the same total career as Larry Walker.

Walker had a .385 Babip career at Coors. In 1999, it was .422. 1998, .435. Much more Coors driven than you think.

And when I talked about power, I was talking about HRs. He started hitting doubles in 1994. Colorado gave him the doubles and HRs.

I think you're more all over the map than Walker ever was. Walker's 52nd in career HR and 89th in career RBIs, hardly the mark of a guy who struggled in those categories.

Top 10 in the last 20 years?

He got injured and played half seasons in 1996 (which I assume you meant instead of 1998, which was a monster season for him) and 2000. Big deal, blips in the overall excellence of his career. Mind you, all those injuries did is turn him into a good hitter instead of a dynamite one.

No, I meant 1998. I can't see a monster year being 23 HR and 67 RBI in that park. You want to be top 10, how do you manage to go from 1 HR in every 11 ABs in 1997 to 1 HR every 11 games in 2000?

He spent his career well outside media hotbeds and apparently you took him for granted, which is too bad. You missed one hell of a player, probably the prototypical RF.

I remember him and he was a great player to watch. His problems are that his peak was a little too related to his arrival in Denver and that he was injured a lot. Sounds questionable to me.

[princeton]

At age 20, Austin Kearns was putting up good numbers. Good numbers in low A ball that is. He didn't reach AAA for any extended period of time until he was 24.

um, Kearns debuted in the majors at age 21, was nearly ML rookie of the year that year

[RedsBaron]

Larry Walker's career splits, which in fairness include a number of seasons in which Coors Field was not his home park, are pretty extreme. He had almost exactly the same number of at bats, 3429 at home, 3478 on the raod, with a big edge in home runs, 215-168, and RBI, 747-564, while at home. As for batting average, OBP and SLG, Walker's numbers at home, .348 .431 .637, dwarf his road numbers of .278 .370 .495.

[RedsBaron]

I certainly didn't say that. I'm all for cheap, productive outfielders while they are cheap and productive...but in a trade off, pitching wins championships.

Baloney.
"Pitching wins championships"---just once on RedsZone I would like for someone to provide some basis for that cliche.
People like to point out that the Mariners won no World Series titles with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodiguez and then offer that as proof that pitching is what wins championships, while ignoring that those very same Mariner teams also had one of the greatest starting pitchers of all time in Randy Johnson. It would make as much sense to argue that the failure of the Mariners to win a championship even though they had Johnson means that pitching doesn't matter and something else, maybe just being scrappy, wins championships.
Major league baseball teams have won championships with average hitting and great pitching, with great hitting and average pitching, with above average hitting and above average pitching---it ordinarily takes hitting and pitching and fielding (and some luck) to win a championship.
Teams that have won a championship with a truly below average offense or a truly below average pitching staff are very few and far between, and some of those that appeared to do so, such as the 1965 Dodgers, represent in part the illusion of park effects.

[RedsBaron]

Don Sutton: 324 wins
Phil Niekro: 318 wins
Gaylord Perry: 314 wins
Early Wynn: 300 wins
Tommy John: 288 wins
Robin Roberts: 286 wins
Ferguson Jenkins: 284 wins
Eppa Rixey: 266 wins
Ted Lyons: 260 wins
Juan Marichal: 243 wins
Luis Tiant: 229 wins
Jim Bunning: 224 wins
Total wins by these 12 pitchers: 3336
Number of winning World Series teams played on by these 12 pitchers: 0

[jojo]

His problems are that his peak was a little too related to his arrival in Denver and that he was injured a lot. Sounds questionable to me.

Except that when normalizing for environment, he is a golden delicious when compared to other HOFer's apples for apples.

You draw some funny statistical lines in Sandland sometimes...

[bucksfan2]

Baloney.
"Pitching wins championships"---just once on RedsZone I would like for someone to provide some basis for that cliche.
People like to point out that the Mariners won no World Series titles with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodiguez and then offer that as proof that pitching is what wins championships, while ignoring that those very same Mariner teams also had one of the greatest starting pitchers of all time in Randy Johnson. It would make as much sense to argue that the failure of the Mariners to win a championship even though they had Johnson means that pitching doesn't matter and something else, maybe just being scrappy, wins championships.
Major league baseball teams have won championships with average hitting and great pitching, with great hitting and average pitching, with above average hitting and above average pitching---it ordinarily takes hitting and pitching and fielding (and some luck) to win a championship.
Teams that have won a championship with a truly below average offense or a truly below average pitching staff are very few and far between, and some of those that appeared to do so, such as the 1965 Dodgers, represent in part the illusion of park effects.

I agree. The greatest teams had a good ballance between pitching, hitting, and defense. You also need a lot of luck. Over the past 5 or so season the best team over the course of the regular season has won the World Series once (Boston this season). The other times it has been the team that got hot at the right time. Pitching is a very important cog to a WS team and more than likely you need a top notch pitcher to get hot during the playoffs but you also need to score some runs.

[princeton]

Baloney.
"Pitching wins championships"---just once on RedsZone I would like for someone to provide some basis for that cliche.

the princetonism is not that pitching wins championships, but that pitching can steal championships.

a single pitcher can dominate a playoff series in a way that a position player rarely does, causing a less talented team to topple a more talented team. There are many examples of a pitcher completely dominating a series, and many fewer examples of a position player doing the same.

even if your team has limited resources, as a small market team is apt to have, you have a chance if you can get into a series with a potentially dominating pitcher. If you have two or three, all the better.

[edabbs44]

Except that when normalizing for environment, he is a golden delicious when compared to other HOFer's apples for apples.

You draw some funny statistical lines in Sandland sometimes...

I was questioning his power surge not only based on his home field advantage but also based on his hooking up with some other questionable characters in Denver. I think everyone has heard the whispers around Helton and Bichette.

I am looking at his career logically instead of through a statistic. Whether it is due to Coors or something else, his career doesn't really pass the sniff test.

[REDREAD]

Plus, I've always viewed parks like that as a double-edged sword. It's got to be hard to adjust to other parks when you go on the road. To Walker's credit, when he went back down toward sea level, he still hit like a fiend. Coors didn't make him, it just changed the mix on how he got his numbers. He just happens to be the best player ever to don a Rockies uniform and that shouldn't be held against him.

I remember hearing Eric Davis talk about Coors. Davis always hit very well there.. I can't remember the exact numbers, but really well. Davis said that he got several triples there which would've should've only been singles, because the hit ball moved way to fast for the OF to react (and naturally Davis had decent wheels).
He also said thought that he once hit a bals hard which should've been a triple but they it the OF wall and bounced to the OF so fast that it was just barely a single.

I know that story wasn't particularly relevant, but it was interesting to hear Davis talk about playing in Coors.

[REDREAD]

And since Hamilton is now gone for something the Reds didn't need, Bruce is apparently going to get dumped into the majors at 21......another reason to worry big time.

I like the Hamilton trade less and less each day.

Sure, in two years, maybe I'll be proven wrong.

But right now, we gave up a CF who was very impressive
in the ML last year (albeit just one year) with just as much
unlimited upside as Bruce for a "project" pitcher with flaws.

As you point out, the temptation is now overwhelming to throw
Bruce in the lineup at 21 years old, whether he's ready or not.

I never thought I'd be so glad to have Norris Hopper, but I am.
At least he's one body that Wayne seems to love who could fill
in at CF if need be. He won't be great, but he might stop
the Reds from wasting a year of Bruce's service time. Since
Freel is coming off injury, I don't feel so comfortable with him.
Likewise, I feel Dickerson won't hit even as good as Reggie Taylor did.

[TRF]

Don Sutton: 324 wins
Phil Niekro: 318 wins
Gaylord Perry: 314 wins
Early Wynn: 300 wins
Tommy John: 288 wins
Robin Roberts: 286 wins
Ferguson Jenkins: 284 wins
Eppa Rixey: 266 wins
Ted Lyons: 260 wins
Juan Marichal: 243 wins
Luis Tiant: 229 wins
Jim Bunning: 224 wins
Total wins by these 12 pitchers: 3336
Number of winning World Series teams played on by these 12 pitchers: 0

How many of those guys PLAYED in a WS?

I hate it when people argue against the pitching wins Championships POV. it's just silly. Ask the Diamondbacks if pitching wins Championships. Yes great pitchers can miss out on a WS Ring. Neikro played his entire career on crappy ATL teams. Perry was quite frankly a victim of timing. His Giants were good enough for the post season had divisional play begun 4 years earlier.

I can give a laundry list of why there were no WS wins for these pitchers, a lot which is mostly circumstance. But I'll ask this instead: When was the last time a team with mediocre or crappy pitching but was an offensive powerhouse won a WS? How often does that happen?