Very nice thread BaseClogger! I read the entire "Needs and Luxuries" concerning the Reds and also all of the comments....whew! What the Orioles fans need to understand, for those who say keep Bedard and build around him, they are fooling themselves because from everything I've read Bedard can't wait to leave Baltimore after the '09 season. So if that happens Baltimore will receive comparatively unknown talents in the compensatory rounds of the draft. Asking for Bruce, Bailey AND Cueto is preposterous but it's ok to ask, if indeed McPhail has asked Krivsky for what many Oriole fans are hoping for.
Truth be known, I strongly believe the Reds and Mariners are more than happy to have the great quality and quantity of young, future stars. Baltimore is so envious, they're being greedy in their demands. If and when Bedard is traded, a smart GM will not fork over anything close to what we all have read as an asking price from the Reds and/or Mariners. Bedard is amazing, especially having come back from Tommy John surgery 4 years ago but that curve he throws will once again take its toll on Erik Bedard. Then throw in the oblique muscle injury last year and who knows what the overall effect that had or will have on his arm and shoulder in 2008 and beyond.
I am convinced the Reds are better off keeping all of our young players for the next 5 to 6 years depending on the individual payer than having Bedard for 2 years as it would stand now. Just think of the daily returns from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto as Reds! Man I can't wait to watch these two on offense and defense! Add to that the fun we'll have watching Bailey, Cueto, Volquez and Maloney blossom into Major League pitchers behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo! Even Matt Belisle could improve. One of Belisle's strongest supporters was none other than Greg Maddux who said of Belisle when both were teammates on the Braves-"the kid gets it". The future looks brighter for the Reds than it has in many, many years.
If Bedard is so great, Oriole fans, please by all means, just hang on to him.
OBTW- Yes, the Reds will be better in 2008 but doubtful they even come close to winning the division. Now watch out in '09! Dusty Baker will know his players better and make better decisions, as will Walt Jocketty and Wayne Krivsky. Bob Castellini has proven that he puts his money where his mouth is and will bring in those 2008 post-season free agents that we need. At that point I look for the Reds and Arizona Diamonbacks to battle it out for the 2009 National League crown.
Ken Griffey Junior - no way we pick up his optoin
Dunn (?) - who knows, definitely not for sure
Hatteberg - cheap, veteran LH Bat off the bench if nothing else
Valentin - cheap, veteran LH Bat/platooning Catcher
David Ross - starting catcher, unless you plan on paying him $3.5M
David Weathers - cheap, veteran set-up guy if nothing else
Due HUGE raises:
BP - 2nd year of Arbitration
Belisle - 2nd year of Arbitration
EE - 1st year of Arbitration
Other big salaries:
AGon - $5.75
Freel - $4M
Stanton - $2.5M (unless he DOESN"T get 71 appearances in 2008)
and a WHOLE LOT of ????'s, especially in the OF. Replacing Junior and Dunn's offense is no small task, especially now that Hamilton is gone.
We've "promoted" Belisle to #3, even though he posted a 5.32 ERA - I know, I know, he was "UNLUCKY", and his Defense Independent ERA is as good as yada yada... let me clue you in to something: "HE'S GOT THE SAME DEFENSE BEHIND HIM THIS YEAR".
We traded for Volquez, who MAY earn a SP spot, but that's more IF's. We traded away an arguably All-Star capable CF for him.
The Cubs just signed Jon Leiber, that's more significant than anything we've done yet to help our starting pitching.
The Astros got Miguel Tejada.
The Cards traded Rolen for Glaus. A guy who may not have started for the Birds for a guy who can hit 30 HRs in his sleep.
I wouldn't call us "Most Better" quite yet...
Lohse at the end of the year could have a 4.50 era but how he gets tehre is the most important part. Dominating starts of 1 hit ball followed by awful starts of no outs ball.
You might think the rotation is worse but i fail to see how it honestly is. This year we at least have 5 pitchers instead of running crap like sarloos, ramirez, dumatrait, and santos out there to suffer through 4 innings of automatic loss.
Belisle problems werent stuff related it was experience and mental mistakes related plus the unlucky thing, but I expect him to be more polished this time around.
Jon Lieber is a joke coming off injuries and will be lucky to have 3 quality starts for the cubs next year. Not to mention i made my post before the signing
The Cards traded for Glaus who best days are behind him because he stopped taking roids, have a huge question mark in center because they are going to rush Colby and who has any clue on if Carpenter is going to ever be back.
Tejeda.. congrats on adding another aging player to your team Astros make sure he gets some B12 and can plan the whole left side of the infield
Last edited by Bip Roberts; 01-16-2008 at 01:21 PM.
I love how you just ignore that we have Bruce, and Votto which should make up for the lost production of the often injured RF and Adam Dunn if we were to lose him. To project much farther is just a losing battle because we cant predict progression of some of our other guys in the minors that fairly right now
Last edited by Bip Roberts; 01-16-2008 at 01:30 PM.
If you think Bruce will hit 30 EXTRA HR"S in 2009 to make up for Griffey, and Votto will hit 40 EXTRA HR"S in 2009 to make up for Dunn, then you need to go back and check your Madden MLB Manager video game son...
""I respectfully disagree. This is a team that last year went for the big stuff, the starting pitcher, Soriano, spent a lot of bucks. Now they are wisely filling in the missing pieces, a needed lefty bat, back-end of rotation guys, extra arms for depth (in the case of Wood, a high-risk and very high-reward guy).
This is how you try to win and, sooner or later, it will click and the Cubs will have a very big year. Maybe this year, maybe next, but soon.
Obviously the Cubs have a financial advantage, but I find their aggressiveness refreshing. I'm just not one to bank on pitching improving because "luck" may change and the other straws that people sometimes grasp at here. ""
The Cubs are leaps and bounds "THE BETTEREST" in the off-season so-far, and especially if they get Roberts. We'd be wise to make a play to WIN, instead of hoping for everyone to have career/rebound years and "LUCK"...
09 position line up if we lose Dunn and or Junior
ss Gonzales i guess
CF Lots of mediocre options
Ok so we lost 1 major position. Could be filled by resigning Dunn, or taking Griffeys option
Then we have our rotation
all the young guys could have a lot of MLB experiance by 09
Coffey (question mark)
Stanton just because of the contract.
You have to assume that the young guys get better or its all for nothing anyways. You will never get better if the young guys never do.
Seriously we are nit picking, Cubs added Jon Lieber and Fukudome this season. The Reds added a closer and have better young players. Lets be serious cubs were a better team to start of the offseason but imo we filled our holes better than any other club in the division
Looks like you replaced Griffey with "Lots of Mediocre Options" and Dunn with ???
Looks like two ???'s to me...
Also, you forgot Catcher, BOTH Ross and Valentin are FA's after this year. Let me guess, that's not a ??? either?
We need to take advantage of what we've got in 2008, and set things up for the future as well.
And, just for the record, I AM excited about our young guys - moreso Votto and Bruce - but the pitchers can't be thrown to the wolves if you want them to succeed. That's why we need a Veteran SP, at a MINIMUM, and should go for a #2 SP so everyone - including Arroyo - drops down a slot in the rotation. THEN we can compete for 2008 AND 2009, and beyond...
Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, all signed through 2010, with options for 2011, then they are all ???'s too. Getting a Bedard/Blanton for 2-3 years would be the BEST core to add to our pitching staff - then alow us to bring along the young pitchers so that they can DEVELOP slowly and possibly be groomed to replace these guys.
I would also sign Dunn to an LTC right now - 4 years minimum, to match this window - and then take my chances with only having to consider Griffey and some bench depth, in addition to Catcher.
We aren't really THAT far apart, and we have the same goals, I'm just not ready to say we're there yet and think we have everything set up for the short/long-term just yet.
WK and Jockety need one more BIG play in FA/Trade, then sign Dunn LTC, then I'll be pacified - for now.