Adam Dunn is Clutch.
Ok, back to the point of my post then. How do you intend to compare players to arrive at a conclusion on who is the most clutch, by your definition.
You say it should be measured, but you don't want to use a number to do it. Maybe you prefer a color or sound... And if you really don't want to measure it, how exactly should we compare players on their clutchiness?
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Why does it have to be quantified?
Watching baseball tells me that Papi tends to come up big more often in clutch situations than Adam Dunn. I don't need a stat to tell me that.
I didn't say it should be measured and that's it. I said it should be measured on coming through in pressure situations. If someone wants to quantify that statement, then have fun trying to do it.
But I already know how to measure it. It can be measured by watching the games and seeing when that person performs well in those situations.
"measured and that's it"? Huh? What does that even mean and when did I suggest it? Of course any measurement is going to be based on some definition of the thing you're trying to measure. That goes without saying. So... "coming through in pressure situations". Sounds like all we need to do is define coming through and define pressure situations, compare them on a player by player basis, and viola!
Why do we want to quantify it? Because no single person has watched every game, watched every at bat, and remembers them all clearly. Because we all have different definitions of what a "pressure" situation is and what "coming through" looks like in those situations. Because some people view clutch as performing the best overall in those situations and some people see it as raising one's game in those situations. People are incredibly biased even when it comes to intuitively measuring things that have fixed definitions. Throw in a vague definition of the thing being measured and we might as well be asking what good music sounds like.
We all have our own biases and definitions. The use of a metric allows us to accept a common definition and measuring stick. The metric itself is certainly up for debate. I think we can all agree that no metric could possibly capture every pressure situation in all their varying degrees and all the types of "coming through". But we have to start somehwere. And given that, I think Tango has taken an interesting approach. He's not trying to measure it absolutely. He simply wants us to answer the following question: If your team is at bat and faces crucial situation in a ballgame, who do you most want to be hitting?
My answer is:
1.) Scott Hatteberg
2.) Adam Dunn
3.) Ken Griffey Jr
Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-16-2008 at 11:19 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Not trying to be argumentative here, just curious.
Now that we know Papi is some level of "more clutch" than Dunn ... what does anyone do with that? Does it have any more relevance than saying Dunn is "more tall" than Papi? For Joe-fan it might, and maybe thats enough. It exists, I see it, I don't care if you can measure it.
For an armchair GM or an actual GM, what does it mean to them? If you can't put a price/value on clutch than its pretty much useless to a lower payroll organization like the Reds. If you can't value it how do you know who to acquire or retain?
Lets say Papi commands $20M/yr and Dunn commands $15M/yr. How do I choose between them knowing Papi is "more clutch", but also more expensive?
Is it more valuable to be a clutch LF, a clutch SS, or a clutch closer? If I can only have 2 of the 3 clutch guys I want, which of the two do I choose?
GL
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