That is the problem with "clutch analysis." There are to many variables and different different kinds "clutch situations" to quantify it with one idea. People have different definitions of clutch and what a clutch player does in those situations.
Most think that Adam Dunn is not clutch. I do, however, because of his tendency not to make outs in those situations (.436 career OBP with RISP w/2 Outs), thus extending the window of opportunity.
I guess what I am am saying is that clutch is often based on peoples opinions, tastes, and personal definitions. It isn't a concrete thing and therefore cannot be measured.
Last edited by CaiGuy; 01-16-2008 at 12:49 PM.
I think you have some valid points and I think that your questions can only be answered by the people who actually have to answer them. What does the owner think? How about the GM?
Is the player a decent, all-around SS who doesn't fold when the heat is on? Then maybe a contender who needs a SS would pay a little extra for that guy. Is the closer a guy who has shown that he has struggled in a pennant race, kind of like Gagne last season? Why would a contender overpay for someone like him?
For the Reds, you are right. At this time, I don't think you need to go and get someone who makes there living from thriving in the postseason. They need people who can help them get there. Then they can worry about the postseason performance later.
A more interesting clutch project would be to combine game threads with an evalutation of cluth situations. Those in the game thread could track "clutch" situations and performance in those situations. A runny tally could then be kept thoughout the year.
a partial thought on Dunn and clutch. As a power hitter he is expected to tie the score if he is up and the team is down a run. No such expectation for Juan Castro. The greater expetation leads to a greater sense of disappointment in the 7 times out of ten when he doesn't get a hit.
So, my original statement was not an indictment on Dunn, but rather on the hitters around him, as well, as his sometimes unfortunate place in the lineup.
I'm just like everybody else. I have two arms, two legs and 4,000 hits."
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Get into a discussion about Ortiz's clutchness and you'll hear numerous situations about how Papi won games with HRs, base hits, etc.
Ask some fans about Dunn's clutchness and you'll hear about how he walks in clutch situations to extend the inning.
Such a difference.
Leave it to the SunDeck to get our ORG panties in a twist...
I'm almost convinced clutch doesn't exist, except for the obvious hitters you don't want up in a clutch situation. Juan Castro, David Ross, Alex Gonzalez, Chris Dickerson, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper. All examples of guys that I don't want up in a clutch situation. Anyone else, I can deal with, in hopes of a positive outcome.