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Thread: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

  1. #46
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I don't know...the latest stat du jour that has been thrown at me is OPS+, which shows that there isn't a huge gap between the two over their careers.
    9 points of OPS+ really isn't all that trivial. Ortiz hasn't had an OPS+ below 144 since he got to Boston, which, coincidentally, is where he has gained notoriety for being clutch. He's really turned it on after some mostly mediocre years in Minnesotta.

    Here is a breif explanation of how OPS+ works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base...S_.28OPS.2B.29

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  3. #47
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    I am so glad there have been less than ten replies to this thread.

    Total waste of time.
    You had to mock them didn't you?
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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    Perhaps Ortiz has more "clutchness" (i like that word) than Dunn, but that doesn't mean that I want to throw stuff at the TV when Dunn steps in to hit.

    Maybe there are different levels of clutch. Both Adam and Ortiz could be considered clutch, but to different degrees.
    Depends on your expectations for when Dunn gets up. If you expect him to not make an out, then he does a good job. If you expect him to get a hit then you're probably gonna be disappointed.

  5. #49
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    I think there'd have to be at least two sliding scales, one for the situation and one for the performance. On situation, the closer the score the more points, the later in the game, the more points. On performance, not making an out gets you a point. Getting the job done yourself gets you more points.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    9 points of OPS+ really isn't all that trivial. Ortiz hasn't had an OPS+ below 144 since he got to Boston, which, coincidentally, is where he has gained notoriety for being clutch. He's really turned it on after some mostly mediocre years in Minnesotta.

    Here is a breif explanation of how OPS+ works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base...S_.28OPS.2B.29
    Thanks.

    If 9 points equals "much better hitter", than Carlos Delgado is a much better hitter than Clemente, Boggs and Dunn?

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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Thanks.

    If 9 points equals "much better hitter", than Carlos Delgado is a much better hitter than Clemente, Boggs and Dunn?
    Well, my "much better hitter" comment is really aimed at Ortiz compared to Dunn since the former has been in Boston. Career-wise, Ortiz has an edge but they are similar. OPS+ is good metric in that it allows you to compare OPSes among players independant of park factors. OPS itself is flawed, though, because (1) it counts hits twice and (2) it weighs OBP and SLG equally. It's not a bad metric, it's just not as accurate as many assume.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Well, my "much better hitter" comment is really aimed at Ortiz compared to Dunn since the former has been in Boston. Career-wise, Ortiz has an edge but they are similar. OPS+ is good metric in that it allows you to compare OPSes among players independant of park factors. OPS itself is flawed, though, because (1) it counts hits twice and (2) it weighs OBP and SLG equally. It's not a bad metric, it's just not as accurate as many assume.
    I agree...I think a lot of stats are flawed.

  9. #53
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    You had to mock them didn't you?
    Someone had to. You were late to the dance.

  10. #54
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Depends on your expectations for when Dunn gets up. If you expect him to not make an out, then he does a good job. If you expect him to get a hit then you're probably gonna be disappointed.

    And that's the rub right there. Tie game, bases loaded and Dunn walks, the ballgame's over and the Reds win. His batting average doesn't increase overall or with RISP but he did drive in a run. Same thing for those scrappy sac flies. And sometimes extending an inning is as important as that big hit.

    "Clutch" is a nebulous thing. Wasn't Eric Davis' first inning HR in the 1990 World Series clutch? Nobody was on at the time but it set the tone for the entire Series.
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    And that's the rub right there. Tie game, bases loaded and Dunn walks, the ballgame's over and the Reds win. His batting average doesn't increase overall or with RISP but he did drive in a run. Same thing for those scrappy sac flies. And sometimes extending an inning is as important as that big hit.

    "Clutch" is a nebulous thing. Wasn't Eric Davis' first inning HR in the 1990 World Series clutch? Nobody was on at the time but it set the tone for the entire Series.
    I'm with you 100%. Sure ED's bomb was clutch. It all depends on the situation. That's why I think clutch is very hard to quantify. Watching someone's performance on a day to day basis is a better way to determine clutchness. That or watching Sportscenter.

  12. #56
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    There's a difference between outright paying for intangibles and paying a little bit more for someone who has playoff experience when your team is a playoff contender.
    Not really.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Not really.
    OK.

  14. #58
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    And that's the rub right there. Tie game, bases loaded and Dunn walks, the ballgame's over and the Reds win. His batting average doesn't increase overall or with RISP but he did drive in a run. Same thing for those scrappy sac flies. And sometimes extending an inning is as important as that big hit.

    "Clutch" is a nebulous thing. Wasn't Eric Davis' first inning HR in the 1990 World Series clutch? Nobody was on at the time but it set the tone for the entire Series.
    Exactly. My take is that certain abilities are more valuable in certain situations. However, certain skills are more broadly applicable. The ability to avoid making outs and the ability to hit the ball for power are the two that are most often useful. The situations that can be described as clutch vary incredibly so as to make use a wide variety of skills. Sometimes a stolen base is clutch. Sometimes bat control is clutch. Sometimes homers are clutch. Sometimes walks are clutch. Sometimes being in the right place in the field is clutch. Bottom line, give me the better player as measured by how he performs across the board and I'll take my chances in the wide variety of "clutch" situations.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-16-2008 at 05:45 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #59
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Dunn:
    Bases empty OPS= .883
    RISP OPS= .884
    Men-On OPS= .913

    I nominate Dunn for Mr. Anti-Clutch. Anyone second the motion?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Dunn:
    Bases empty OPS= .883
    RISP OPS= .884
    Men-On OPS= .913

    I nominate Dunn for Mr. Anti-Clutch. Anyone second the motion?
    If walking is clutch, then consider Dunn as Miles Davis.


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