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Thread: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

  1. #76
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He would probably rather see a .300/.400/.500 guy than a .250/.400/.500 guy, which is what I am picking up from him.
    Is there really a meaningful difference between those two?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #77
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    No it's not....there are lots of kinds and it's obvious that not all are equal. Are you arguing that you'd want the guy with the highest batting average?
    Nope. Sometimes a single is what you need, sometimes you need a HR.

    Nice try.

  4. #78
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    So the Reds haven't actually had a clutch situation since 1999?
    No, that was just one example.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Given such a narrow definition of clutch, I'd suggest there isn't enough facts and circumstances to even entertain a discussion about how to measure clutch.
    I agree that it is difficult to measure clutch. Haven't you read my posts?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    No disrespect intended but that's a pretty strange position to have since clutch would presumably be contingent upon performance.
    Sure it would. If you can find a stat to measure succeeding in what you set out to do, let me know. For now, I'm going to watch games and determine who is successful in the clutch by (gasp!) watching the game.

  5. #79
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't know if he is saying that, but I think he wants a well rounded hitter in that situation, as opposed to an Adam Dunn type who won't hit for average at all, but still get on base and slug well. He would probably rather see a .300/.400/.500 guy than a .250/.400/.500 guy, which is what I am picking up from him.
    Thanks man.

    In certain situations, quantity of successful ABs is better than quality of successful ABs. Man on 3rd, 2 out in the 9th, tie game. Would you rather have a HR or a single? Obviously it makes no difference in the win column. But stat junkies give the a ton more credit to the HR.

    Now, given two of those situations, would you rather have a HR and an out or 2 singles? OPS for one situation is 2.000, the other is 2.500. Give me the lesser any day in that situation.

    Again, clutch is all about doing what it takes.

  6. #80
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Is there really a meaningful difference between those two?
    To me? Yeah, there is. One guy is a well rounded hitter and one guy is a slugger who knows how to take a walk.

  7. #81
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Is there really a meaningful difference between those two?
    Here are 3 generic models of how you can get to a .955ish OPS. Which is more clutch? Which is more valuable? Which costs more in the market. Fun stuff

    Code:
    			PA	BB	1B	2B	3B	HR	K	Non-K Outs 	 BA	 OBP	 SLG	 OPS
    The "Dunn" Model	600	105	55	30	2	40	150	218		 0.257 	 0.387 	 0.568 	 0.954 
    The "Teixiera" Model	600	85	80	35	4	32	90	274		 0.293 	 0.393 	 0.563 	 0.956 
    The "Utley" Model	600	65	105	40	5	24	60	301		 0.325 	 0.398 	 0.553 	 0.952
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #82
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I agree that it is difficult to measure clutch. Haven't you read my posts?
    Yes and you've argued it's a tangible entity that can't be defined. Color me perplexed.

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Sure it would. If you can find a stat to measure succeeding in what you set out to do, let me know.
    Uhh, OK.

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    For now, I'm going to watch games and determine who is successful in the clutch by (gasp!) watching the game.
    And there you go.... it's a tangible entity that can be clearly seen with the eyes but can not be measured statistically and people who try are just geeks who can't even be bothered with watching a game.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #83
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    To me? Yeah, there is. One guy is a well rounded hitter and one guy is a slugger who knows how to take a walk.
    I didn't mean do you prefer the shirt in red or blue but rather is there really a meaningful difference in production between those two lines?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #84
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    And there you go.... it's a tangible entity that can be clearly seen with the eyes but can not be measured statistically and people who try are just geeks who can't even be bothered with watching a game.
    Dude, you are the king of distortion. Keep trying to twist my posts into something you want me to say.

    Ain't happening.

  11. #85
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Dude, you are the king of distortion. Keep trying to twist my posts into something you want me to say.

    Ain't happening.
    Truthfully, all I'm seeing is someone trying to be as vague as possible while being specific enough to not have to consider Dunn in his definition of clutch.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #86
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I didn't mean do you prefer the shirt in red or blue but rather is there really a meaningful difference in production between those two lines?
    Yeah, likely over the course of a seasons worth of 'runners on base' situations.

  13. #87
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yeah, likely over the course of a seasons worth of 'runners on base' situations.
    What do ya figure the difference between the two might be?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #88
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Truthfully, all I'm seeing is someone trying to be as vague as possible while being specific enough to not have to consider Dunn in his definition of clutch.
    Then maybe then I don't view Dunn as being clutch.

    But instead of looking for the conspiracy, look at what I am posting.

  15. #89
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What do ya figure the difference between the two might be?
    Depends on the situation.

    A hit vs. an out could mean multiple runs each time, especially in a clutch situation.

  16. #90
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What do ya figure the difference between the two might be?
    The extra 5-10 hits with runners on base versus 5-10 walks in the same scenario.


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