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Thread: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

  1. #121
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    I think it's important to do work on things like clutch so that GMs don't waste money pursuing the myth during free agency.

    That said, as fans, debunking the myth can kinda suck. It's like playing the guitar. Sometimes learning how to play one of your favorite songs can kill it for you.

    This is where the stats crowd misses the boat from a "PR" standpoint. Sometimes a little myth adds to the ambience-like Santa during the holiday season. It's hard enough discussing an argument when the premises are based upon metrics that many fans haven't considered or are complex making it difficult to sum in a sentence. Then ya go and kill Christmas with your conclusions too?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #122
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Cluch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That's an important distinction though. Clutch isn't something you are, it's something you've done. Asking for people who are clutch suggests that people themselves are clutch, as if clutch were some ability to come through more often than others in those situations.
    It's a really big step from "that was a really clutch at bat" to "that guy is clutch" (and therefore more likely than others to perform well in other clutch situations).
    I guess what we mean, is that anyone who comes through in a time when it is needed, they are called clutch?

    So wouldn’t that have to be a player that can show higher percentages?

    How about these below to define or measure clutch ?

    Contact%
    The percentage of at bats during which the hitter makes contact with the ball. The league average in 2007 was 80.8%.

    BABIP
    Batting average of balls in play; the percentage of batted balls that result in a hit, excluding home runs (as they don't fall in the field of play). The league average in 2007 was .306.

    So if you had percentages that indicated that you have more clutch moments than I do, then you would be the clutch hitter?

    BABIP/Contact% = Clutch % ? would the math work out ?
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 07-04-2008 at 06:12 PM.

  4. #123
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Couldn't we get a percentage by dividing the number of times a player succeeds in driving in a runner (or more) by the number of chances he has? Would that be an RBI%? Wouldn't that number be a primary indicator of clutch?

    Because, although a walk is vaulable in clutch situations, I don't think it's as valuable as knicking in the runner. And Dunn, despite his solid OPS, does not knock in the runner as often as ARod, Ortiz, or others, I'm guessing. (Although, admittedly, I don't know that for certain.)
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  5. #124
    Resident optimist OldRightHander's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    I've often thought that rather than there being such a thing as clutch, there is such a thing as players who don't choke under pressure. Those players are going to perform as well during any situation, while there are players, and we've all seen them, who perform worse during situations that involve pressure. In short, they don't have the mental toughness to block out the so called pressure of certain situations and just treat the game the same way. It's the player who just goes about his business the same way regardless of the situation that we tend to label as a clutch performer, rather than the player who has the ability to "rise to the occasion." That's the way I see it at least.

    I also think that when it comes to baseball, we have to consider how a hitter is pitched to during certain situations. A slugger is going to see more pitches to hit when his team is either up or down by a large number of runs, hence the "meaningless" homer. In a tight game, the pitcher is going to pitch around certain hitters or just not give them much to swing at. That's why I think you see some "clutch" hits from unsuspected sources. The pitcher bears down more against the better hitters and occasionally one of the lesser hitters gets a good pitch to hit and becomes the hero for the day. Do that a few times during the year and you might get a clutch reputation.
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  6. #125
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Couldn't we get a percentage by dividing the number of times a player succeeds in driving in a runner (or more) by the number of chances he has? Would that be an RBI%? Wouldn't that number be a primary indicator of clutch?

    Because, although a walk is vaulable in clutch situations, I don't think it's as valuable as knicking in the runner. And Dunn, despite his solid OPS, does not knock in the runner as often as ARod, Ortiz, or others, I'm guessing. (Although, admittedly, I don't know that for certain.)

    What about the game where it has been close all night, where neither team could seem to buy a hit.

    Bottom of the eighth or ninth, two out, down 2-1,
    player X-bot comes through with a solid double to keep your team in it,
    next guy player Y-not drives him in to tie the game.
    Wouldn’t both deserve clutch pts ?

    Next inning Rocket-man your closer blows it
    when Slackero-for20 comes through with a single, steals second,
    and Fantasy guy triples, and the other guys win 3-2

    Are the batters in the top of the next inning the most clutch since their team wins
    Or do both teams batters that effected the scores get clutch points?

    Or does baseball already have a clutch stat in OBP ? Or RC, RC27 ?
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 07-05-2008 at 12:33 AM.

  7. #126
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by OldRightHander View Post
    I've often thought that rather than there being such a thing as clutch, there is such a thing as players who don't choke under pressure. Those players are going to perform as well during any situation, while there are players, and we've all seen them, who perform worse during situations that involve pressure. In short, they don't have the mental toughness to block out the so called pressure of certain situations and just treat the game the same way. It's the player who just goes about his business the same way regardless of the situation that we tend to label as a clutch performer, rather than the player who has the ability to "rise to the occasion." That's the way I see it at least.

    I also think that when it comes to baseball, we have to consider how a hitter is pitched to during certain situations. A slugger is going to see more pitches to hit when his team is either up or down by a large number of runs, hence the "meaningless" homer. In a tight game, the pitcher is going to pitch around certain hitters or just not give them much to swing at. That's why I think you see some "clutch" hits from unsuspected sources. The pitcher bears down more against the better hitters and occasionally one of the lesser hitters gets a good pitch to hit and becomes the hero for the day. Do that a few times during the year and you might get a clutch reputation.
    I agree with you on that idea about there being some who do crack under the pressure who often may be viewed as superior players. But I also feel that there are those who although aren't the best players all the time persay, invite moments of pressure and do rise to the challenge. I liken it to a person who taps into something extra that they do not usually have at their disposal in moments of fear. They are not always that physically strong as an example, but at that moment they find something extra within themselves.

    A guy who maybe lacks self esteem for reasons unknown drives himself to "prove" himself in as many areas as possible. He takes every challenge as if his self respect depends on it, it's his way of proving something to himself through proving his worth to others. To some men self respect be it through the respect of others or not is more important than life itself. And it's in those moments when others expect him to fail that he relishes the moment instead of hiding from it or wilting. He isn't afraid to fail like others might because he's too busy licking his chops at the possible fortune awaiting, respect. He says you might win many of the battles but eventually I'll win the war.

    Those who discount that this exists is probably because they aren't afflicted with feeling constantly disrespected or unappreciated.
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  8. #127
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    What about the game where it has been close all night, where neither team could seem to buy a hit.

    Bottom of the eighth or ninth, two out, down 2-1,
    player X-bot comes through with a solid double to keep your team in it,
    next guy player Y-not drives him in to tie the game.
    Wouldnít both deserve clutch pts ?

    Next inning Rocket-man your closer blows it
    when Slackero-for20 comes through with a single, steals second,
    and Fantasy guy triples, and the other guys win 3-2

    Are the batters in the top of the next inning the most clutch since their team wins
    Or do both teams batters that effected the scores get clutch points?

    Or does baseball already have a clutch stat in OBP ? Or RC, RC27 ?
    Yes, there are some stats that address situational performance in a more comprehensive fashion.

    My favorite is WPA or Win Probability Added. Simply put, the batter is credited with the difference in his team's Win Probability before and after his PA. Those Win Probabilities are determined based on standardized tables or historical data.

    In the cases you state, both the "guy that gets on to keep team in it", like the "guy that drives him in" would garner a good amount of WPA.

    However, the "meaningless HR", down or up by 8 in the 9th, doesn't earn you much WPA.

    The "blown save" can cost a closer a good amount of WPA.

    Other things... a leadoff walk in the ninth of a tied game, for example...lots of WPA. Sac Bunts...usually don't help WPA much (since they usually don't increase Win Probabilty much...even when successful).

    The guys at fangraphs.com have been tracking WPA for a while now and the leaderboard reads like a who's who for players.
    Guys who make few outs and "turn games around" (slugging) will accumulate a lot of WPA.

    No surprise that Lance Berkman is the current ML leader. Pat Burrell is second.

    A strikeout is pretty much another out for WPA...although advancing a runner with an out CAN help (or at least be LESS negative).
    GIDPs...usually very bad.

    The always controversial Adam Dunn leads the REDS hitters in 2008 in WPA currently with 1.47.
    Corey Patterson is last with -1.64.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?...ds&season=2008

    Sorry for deadhorse
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  9. #128
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Yes, there are some stats that address situational performance in a more comprehensive fashion.

    My favorite is WPA or Win Probability Added. Simply put, the batter is credited with the difference in his team's Win Probability before and after his PA. Those Win Probabilities are determined based on standardized tables or historical data.

    In the cases you state, both the "guy that gets on to keep team in it", like the "guy that drives him in" would garner a good amount of WPA.

    However, the "meaningless HR", down or up by 8 in the 9th, doesn't earn you much WPA.

    The "blown save" can cost a closer a good amount of WPA.

    Other things... a leadoff walk in the ninth of a tied game, for example...lots of WPA. Sac Bunts...usually don't help WPA much (since they usually don't increase Win Probabilty much...even when successful).

    The guys at fangraphs.com have been tracking WPA for a while now and the leaderboard reads like a who's who for players.
    Guys who make few outs and "turn games around" (slugging) will accumulate a lot of WPA.

    No surprise that Lance Berkman is the current ML leader. Pat Burrell is second.

    A strikeout is pretty much another out for WPA...although advancing a runner with an out CAN help (or at least be LESS negative).
    GIDPs...usually very bad.

    The always controversial Adam Dunn leads the REDS hitters in 2008 in WPA currently with 1.47.
    Corey Patterson is last with -1.64.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?...ds&season=2008

    Sorry for deadhorse
    More people should beat the horse for WPA....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #129
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Yes, there are some stats that address situational performance in a more comprehensive fashion.

    My favorite is WPA or Win Probability Added. Simply put, the batter is credited with the difference in his team's Win Probability before and after his PA. Those Win Probabilities are determined based on standardized tables or historical data.

    In the cases you state, both the "guy that gets on to keep team in it", like the "guy that drives him in" would garner a good amount of WPA.

    However, the "meaningless HR", down or up by 8 in the 9th, doesn't earn you much WPA.

    The "blown save" can cost a closer a good amount of WPA.

    Other things... a leadoff walk in the ninth of a tied game, for example...lots of WPA. Sac Bunts...usually don't help WPA much (since they usually don't increase Win Probabilty much...even when successful).

    The guys at fangraphs.com have been tracking WPA for a while now and the leaderboard reads like a who's who for players.
    Guys who make few outs and "turn games around" (slugging) will accumulate a lot of WPA.

    No surprise that Lance Berkman is the current ML leader. Pat Burrell is second.

    A strikeout is pretty much another out for WPA...although advancing a runner with an out CAN help (or at least be LESS negative).
    GIDPs...usually very bad.

    The always controversial Adam Dunn leads the REDS hitters in 2008 in WPA currently with 1.47.
    Corey Patterson is last with -1.64.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?...ds&season=2008

    Sorry for deadhorse
    Thanks, I did not realize that existed, seems right to me.

  11. #130
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    how exciting are we to see Griff nestled between Valentin and Cueto (the hitter) on that graph?
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  12. #131
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    how exciting are we to see Griff nestled between Valentin and Cueto (the hitter) on that graph?
    It was a lot worse before his walk-off against the Pie-rats.
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  13. #132
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    More people should beat the horse for WPA....
    Only if beating said horse is somehow a celebration of its death.
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  14. #133
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Which Reds players have the best WPA, anyone have that readily available? Helps if I read, I found it.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 07-05-2008 at 11:08 PM.

  15. #134
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    Code:
    Adam Dunn	 1.47
    Jerry Hairston	 1.15
    Jay Bruce	 0.87
    Edwin Encarnaci	 0.71
    Joey Votto	 0.57
    Brandon Phillips 0.25
    Andy Phillips	 0.11
    Jolbert Cabrera	 0.10
    Ryan Freel	 0.10
    Scott Hatteberg	 0.06
    Paul Janish	 0.05
    
    
    Jeff Keppinger	 -0.04
    Juan Castro	 -0.13 
    Dave Ross	 -0.14 
    Norris Hopper	 -0.36 
    Javier Valentin	 -0.39 
    Ken Griffey Jr.	 -0.39 
    Paul Bako	 -0.65 
    Corey Patterson	 -1.64
    WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.

    +WPA (win advancement): The amount of positive wins a player contributed to his team, including only the plays where he increased his team’s win expectancy.

    -WPA (loss advancement): The amount of negative wins a player contributed to his team, including only the plays where he decreased his team’s win expectancy

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

    So the Reds actually have players with a -WPA. Are we correct in thinking that those players tend to hurt a teams chances of winning?

    If that is true, then how can individuals on the board continue to imply that we cannot track and accurately assign responsibility to the Reds losses?

  16. #135
    Member harangatang's Avatar
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    Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

    [/sarcasm]Brandon Phillips in 6th on the Reds in WPA? C'mon he's the most clutch hitter the Reds have, end of story.[/sarcasm]


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