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Thread: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

  1. #151
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    The need for Bedard is as acute as ever. If you are going to spend millions on your bullpen, you need a rotation that can get you there. The Reds are still depending on two pitchers and a bunch of throw ins.
    I already stated Affeldt is an OK but not terribly exciting idea if a similar use as Colorado is planned. However, it really has no impact on the purpose of the Cordero signing, as eddabbs seems to funnel each and every transaction through. So the Reds shouldn't sign anyone until they land the big fish? That didn't work out real well for Captain Ahab, and I suppose that the Reds would have a similar fate.

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  3. #152
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    I think some of you are making too much of the starter/reliever splits. His increased effectiveness the last couple of years could have just as much to do with maturing as a pitcher. If there's anything we all should have learned by now, it's that pitchers are on their own timetables. Some of them take longer to get it. Maybe the light just started to go off recently, and that coincided with his move to the bullpen.
    Where does this notion that Affeldt has turned a corner the last couple of years keep coming from?

    He's been what he's always been-a flamed out starter with "good stuff" but lousy command. He should've gotten a boost as a reliever due to the less demanding nature of the role on his skills. Unfortunately as a reliever, he's still had below average peripherals (NL '07 average for a reliever: K/9= 7.40; BB/9= 3.61; K/BB= 2.04). All he has done the last several years is managed to be some what serviceable due to being forced to change roles while managing an ERA last season that apparently impresses people (or is it the 5 post season innings that has every one gaga?). Being a lefty with "stuff" has given him a lot of rope but his stuff hasn't translated into anything suggestive of consistent high leverage performance.

    He's a reasonable flyer for the Reds pen because of the short commitment he required and the fact that the Reds pen is pretty bad. That said, at 28, it's time to stop hoping for what he could be and start accepting him for what he is-an arm that projects to once again be below average for a reliever but who might be useful given his stuff and the volatility of relievers.

    There is absolutely nothing that suggests he should be successful in the Reds rotation.

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    And adding a good arm on a low-cost one-year deal to compete for a starting spot is a good thing. Period.
    Maybe. But the arm that's added definitely can speak volumes about a GM's ability to judge major league talent.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #153
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    I hate that starting is even an option. It most likely means that the search for additional starting help is over.

    As far as Affeldt in the pen goes, I personally have wanted this signing. I have no illusions that Affeldt is a stud reliever, but given the internal options and the avaiability of an upgrade from the left side, it seems like a decent idea. Based on the projections available to date (ERA for 2008 pen potentials below), Affeldt would be the second best lefty (though not by a lot compared to Coutlangus).

    Code:
    Name	James	Chone	Marcel
    Cordero	3.54	3.36	3.80
    Weath	3.84	4.20	4.06
    Bray	4.05	3.91	4.38
    Burton	4.20	4.50	3.83
    Salmon	N/A	4.30	4.38
    Affeldt	4.42	4.43	4.64
    McBeth	N/A	4.42	4.63
    Stanton	4.05	4.73	5.02
    Coffey	4.86	4.15	4.97
    Roen.	N/A	4.67	N/A
    Coutl.	4.80	4.66	4.60
    Maj	4.75	4.50	4.91
    Herrera	N/A	4.98	N/A
    Viola	N/A	5.00	N/A
    Brower	N/A	5.10	5.59
    Pettyj	N/A	5.46	N/A
    Pelland	N/A	5.59	N/A
    Ramirez	N/A	5.74	N/A
    Since Salmon is likely to get no legit shot, Affeldt would be firmly in the role of 7th and 8th inning guy. Its possible if the young guys come quicky (if given a chance) that Affeldt may end up the needed multi-inning lefty that can come in early and turn a line-up around. There really is no other decent option there right now. $3 Million is a lot for the mop-up long man, but I could see it playing out that way. Of course for that to happen, the younger guys would need to be trusted in the 7th and 8th and I'm not sure that will happen now,
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #154
    Member Phhhl's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    How much worse is this rotation than the 1999 club that won 96 ballgames? Aren't Harang and Arroyo generally as good as the tandem of Harnisch and Naegle? Is it ridiculous to think that any combination of Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Belisle and/or Affeldt could potentially pitch as well or better than the chemical reaction of Steve Avery, Steve Paris, Dennys Reyes, Juan Guzman and Elmer Dessens? It looks like the bullpen is finally taking shape, and there is reason to think that games can be won when the pen has to take over early in games.

    We have already lost a potentially devastating offensive force in Hamilton in this quest for pitching stability. I am not fond of sacraficing much more, given the potential of the young arms we currently have. In my lifetime, I have never known a Reds team to have as many power arms on the cusp of their major league careers than right now. I want to win as bad as anybody, but frankly I want to see how this plays out in the hopes of establishing long-term success for my beloved Reds.

  6. #155
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Where does this notion that Affeldt has turned a corner the last couple of years keep coming from?
    I wish I had that answer as well. Affeldt's 2006 was absolutely awful and his 2007 isn't likely to be repeated should his BABIP normalize and/or his HR/9 rate increase to 2006 levels. And after reviewing the data, Affeldt's HR rate looks to normalize in 2008 as his HR/FB rate was about half (5.3%) of what we can reasonably expect.

    He's been what he's always been-a flamed out starter with "good stuff" but lousy command. He should've gotten a boost as a reliever due to the less demanding nature of the role on his skills. Unfortunately as a reliever, he's still had below average peripherals (NL '07 average for a reliever: K/9= 7.40; BB/9= 3.61; K/BB= 2.04). All he has done the last several years is managed to be some what serviceable due to being forced to change roles while managing an ERA last season that apparently impresses people (or is it the 5 post season innings that has every one gaga?). Being a lefty with "stuff" has given him a lot of rope but his stuff hasn't translated into anything suggestive of consistent high leverage performance.
    And I'd suggest that Affeldt's "stuff" has always been overrated. He's never been a high K-rate pitcher, even while advancing through the minors. His command has generally been lousy. And he's oft-injured to boot. Not just blisters. Tweaked groin here, tweaked ribs there, etc. He's allowed high OBP-Against numbers to both LH and RH hitters because he simply walks too many folks. And his numbers as a Starter have been consistently awful. KC last tried him in that role to begin 2006 and he got his brains beat in.

    He's also not a multiple-Inning arm in the pen. His usage pattern was this in 2007:

    < 1 IP: 31 Games
    = 1 IP: 39 Games
    > 1 IP: 5 Games
    = 2 IP: 2 Games

    He ended up with 59.0 IP in 75 appearances. Those are "LOOGY" numbers, but he's not actually one of those.

    He's a reasonable flyer for the Reds pen because of the short commitment he required and the fact that the Reds pen is pretty bad. That said, at 28, it's time to stop hoping for what he could be and start accepting him for what he is-an arm that projects to once again be below average for a reliever but who might be useful given his stuff and the volatility of relievers.

    There is absolutely nothing that suggests he should be successful in the Reds rotation.
    Agreed completely. And if such a rotation suggestion were made to Affeldt in order to get him to sign, I sincerely hope Krivsky had his fingers crossed behind his back.

    Maybe. But the arm that's added definitely can speak volumes about a GM's ability to judge major league talent.
    Again, bingo.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
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  7. #156
    You're being very UnDude. sonny's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    The Reds took a flyer on a guy who was one of the best available. No problems here.
    Witty signature.

  8. #157
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by sonny View Post
    The Reds took a flyer on a guy who was one of the best available. No problems here.
    This is my take as well. I assume, the Reds wanted a veteran to hold down a rotation spot so that they would not be forced to having Bailey in the rotation to start the season. Given the available talent and the associated costs, this was their choice. Had they gone with Tomko, Fogg, or Hernandez, it would have been no better, and possibly worse.

    The upside involved here is Bailey learning to actually pitch while in the minors instead of Cincy. If Affeldt can keep his ERA under 5 and throw 5.5 innings a start, all the better.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #158
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    This is my take as well. I assume, the Reds wanted a veteran to hold down a rotation spot so that they would not be forced to having Bailey in the rotation to start the season. Given the available talent and the associated costs, this was their choice. Had they gone with Tomko, Fogg, or Hernandez, it would have been no better, and possibly worse.

    The upside involved here is Bailey learning to actually pitch while in the minors instead of Cincy. If Affeldt can keep his ERA under 5 and throw 5.5 innings a start, all the better.
    While I agree with you that spending only 3M for one year of a decent Starting Pitcher is preferable to spending more longer-term on junk like Tomko, Fogg, and Hernandez, if the the "upside" only adds 3 million dollars onto the minor league development cost of Homer Bailey by signing a replacement-level Starter, the I'm in complete "Do Not Want" mode.

    At this point, the rotation should be completely out of the question for Affeldt until he establishes himself in the pen over time and does so over a goodly number of multiple-Inning stints.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  10. #159
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Stanton? He's likely not going to make it through ST.
    Only if the Reds trade him, or eat the 3.5M dollars that's left on his contract. (3M due in '08, plus the .5M buyout on his '09 option.)

    One other thing, Mike Stanton is a mere 71 appearances away from having the 2009 team option guaranteed. He made 69 appearances in 2007. Sweet dreams everyone.

    And pedro thinks I worry too much.
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    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

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  11. #160
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2 View Post

    And pedro thinks I worry too much.
    about Keppinger's defense at first.

    as for Stanton, I'm not worried about his contract, I'm worried about the Reds keeping on the roster if he continues to suck.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  12. #161
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    While I agree with you that spending only 3M for one year of a decent Starting Pitcher is preferable to spending more longer-term on junk like Tomko, Fogg, and Hernandez, if the the "upside" only adds 3 million dollars onto the minor league development cost of Homer Bailey by signing a replacement-level Starter, the I'm in complete "Do Not Want" mode.

    At this point, the rotation should be completely out of the question for Affeldt until he establishes himself in the pen over time and does so over a goodly number of multiple-Inning stints.
    I guess in an "it's not my money" mode. If he keeps ERA under 5, he's perfect trade bait. I'd take another Matt Maloney. I have no illusions that he's a good answer to an open rotation spot. But he's better than the other AAA worth non-prospects like Shearn.

    Or perhaps not. The closer you look the uglier he gets. The low hit rate has to be in part b/c of the Rockies stellar defense. 2006 was just UGLY. Oh, going back to "it's not my money", having another arm is better than not having it....
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #162
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    about Keppinger's defense at first.

    as for Stanton, I'm not worried about his contract, I'm worried about the Reds keeping on the roster if he continues to suck.
    I think it's a pretty safe bet that he's going to continue to suck at this point. I also think he's a safe bet to make the Reds roster because of financial considerations. I'm more worried about the total appearances he makes for the Reds in 2008.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  14. #163
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    eh. probably won't be worse than Stanton, and at the very least, gives the organization an even better reason to realease Stanton if he struggles in the Spring or in early April.
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  15. #164
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    I like this move. It brings about quite a bit of competition to spring training. If Affeldt earns a starting spot then good for him. If he is in the pen well it gives another live arm in the pen.

  16. #165
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire lefty, Jeremy Affeldt ...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I like this move. It brings about quite a bit of competition to spring training. If Affeldt earns a starting spot then good for him. If he is in the pen well it gives another live arm in the pen.
    The only thing that scares me about guys like Affeldt in ST is when they pull a "Victor Santos". Santos pitched lights out in ST last year. Not so much during the regular season.
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08


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