Reds Insider

[OnBaseMachine]

Affeldt would be strong addition
Could be in line for spot in the rotation

Some fearless predictions 27 days before pitchers and catchers report:

Jeremy Affeldt's imminent signing could go down as one of Wayne Krivsky's better moves. No. 1, he's a left-hander. No. 2, he had a 3.51 ERA pitching for the Colorado Rockies last year. Coors Field rates slightly higher on pitcher fright scale than Great American.

The best thing about signing Affeldt is it probably means the Reds aren't going to sign one of the remaining free agent starters.

None of the free agents still out there - Josh Fogg, Livan Hernandez, Steve Trachsel, Kris Benson, Brett Tomko - put up very good numbers last year. Fogg (10-9, 4.94 ERA) was the best of the bunch, in fact.

Tomko, for instance, was 4-12 with a 5.55 ERA. If Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto can't put up those kinds of numbers, the Reds should have gone ahead and traded them.

Affeldt's signing would mean the Reds would have five guys competing for two spots in the rotation. That can be a good thing.

The Reds' new spring home will be the same as their old spring home - Sarasota.

We'll know a lot more Tuesday. That's when the Sarasota city and county commissions vote on whether to go forward with the new plan.

The reality of the Reds leaving has sunk in in Sarasota. A poll by the Sarasota Herald-Tribune shows that people in the area favor the new plan - just slightly.

So this is no slam dunk. Two of the county commissioners went on the record as saying they were against the plan. And, as the rules stand, it takes a 4-1 vote to approve the new plan.

There's been an informal lobby effort to make them to come around. I think they will.

If they don't, the Reds likely will end up in Arizona.

Other cities in Florida face what turned Sarasota against the original plan: A housing downturn, rising insurance rates, a lot of foreclosures. That's not a climate to get taxes approved. So it's unlikely that any city in Florida can match the offer the Reds will get from Goodyear, Ariz.

Jay Bruce will be the starting center fielder on Opening Day. Bruce is a bright guy. He has a firm grasp on the opportunity before him. He'll be ready from the start, he'll put up big numbers in spring training and win the job. He's going to have to do that because the Reds' baseball brain trust would be content with him starting the season at Louisville.

The Reds will sign Brandon Phillips to a long-term deal before he gets close to his arbitration hearing.

It just makes too much sense not to. Players like Phillips will almost always take a lot of security for less money up front. (Aaron Harang and Adam Dunn did.)

That means the Reds probably could get Phillips for closer to the $2.7 million they're offering than the $4.2 million he's asking for this season. So don't be surprised if a three-year contract for, say, $20 million or so gets done before the Reds head south. The breakdown would be something along the lines of $3 million, $6 million and $10 million per year with $1 million to sign.

Phillips is very happy in Redsland. Remember how well he took it when the Reds renewed his contract last March?

Phillips is a guy the Reds definitely want around long-term. One of their marketing people told me he's the best guy they've ever worked with. The fact that he's on the Reds Caravan speaks to that.

Hitting .288 with 30 homers, 94 RBI and 32 steals isn't bad, either.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...L09/801200418/

[Benihana]

I hope every one of those predictions comes true.

[jojo]

If John Fay is down with Affledt starting then the issue should be settled.

[Heath]

...and you wonder why CTRosecrans is missed........

Bank President hours and research is great.

[wolfboy]

...and you wonder why CTRosecrans is missed........

Bank President hours and research is great.

so go to c. trent's new blog. http://ctrentrosecrans.com/

[jojo]

so go to c. trent's new blog. http://ctrentrosecrans.com/

Trent has an interesting take....

It was blisters that relegated Affledt to the pen (because he otherwise was awesome as a starter) and the biggest risk with inserting him into the rotation now is that he'll be so tremendously awesome that he'll get a raise....

At age 27, his ERA was a full two runs worse than replacement in his 9 starts with KC. Those are some mongo blisters....

[lollipopcurve]

It was blisters that relegated Affledt to the pen (because he otherwise was awesome as a starter) and the biggest risk with inserting him into the rotation now is that he'll be so tremendously awesome that he'll get a raise....

At age 27, his ERA was a full two runs worse than replacement in his 9 starts with KC. Those are some mongo blisters....

If you'd seen Affeldt throw when he first came up, you'd understand why there was hype about him. The fastball and curve were both plus pitches, the curve probably plus-plus. I mean, he looked like he could be scary good. Obviously, the success was lacking -- because of the blisters, because of the control issues.

At worst he's an experienced lefty out of the pen. But he's worth taking a shot on as a starter -- it takes longer for some guys with big stuff.

[Heath]

so go to c. trent's new blog. http://ctrentrosecrans.com/

And right there, combined with Mr. Fay's work should be a lesson in journalism school.

But, that's Just My Opinion.

[KronoRed]

Wow I don't think half those things will happen.

Can I get a Job writing hope articles?

[KronoRed]

so go to c. trent's new blog. http://ctrentrosecrans.com/

Excellent

[wolfboy]

Trent has an interesting take....

It was blisters that relegated Affledt to the pen (because he otherwise was awesome as a starter) and the biggest risk with inserting him into the rotation now is that he'll be so tremendously awesome that he'll get a raise....

At age 27, his ERA was a full two runs worse than replacement in his 9 starts with KC. Those are some mongo blisters....

Well, he didn't have the blister problems in 2006 at age 27. He had the blister problems during his first two seasons in '02 and '03. The blisters would get to him the longer he stayed in games, so the Royals put him in the bullpen. He did "pretty well" as a starter, not "tremendously awesome". Of course, no one claimed that he was "tremendously awesome".

[RFS62]

so go to c. trent's new blog. http://ctrentrosecrans.com/

Awesome!!!! Thanks for the link!!

[jojo]

Well, he didn't have the blister problems in 2006 at age 27. He had the blister problems during his first two seasons in '02 and '03. The blisters would get to him the longer he stayed in games, so the Royals put him in the bullpen. He did "pretty well" as a starter, not "tremendously awesome". Of course, no one claimed that he was "tremendously awesome".

He's been somewhere between significantly below average to replacement level as a major league starter.

Affeldt's career as starter: ERA: 5.41 ; FIP: 5.00; K/9: 5.30; BB/9: 4.00; K/BB: 1.33; IP/GS: 5.1;

For comparison-the average NL starter in '07: ERA: 4.64 ; FIP: 4.64; K/9: 6.30; BB/9: 3.20; K/BB: 1.97; IP/GS: 5.74;

[RedLegSuperStar]

He's been somewhere between significantly below average to replacement level as a major league starter.

Affeldt's career as starter: ERA: 5.41 ; FIP: 5.00; K/9: 5.30; BB/9: 4.00; K/BB: 1.33; IP/GS: 5.1;

For comparison-the average NL starter in '07: ERA: 4.64 ; FIP: 4.64; K/9: 6.30; BB/9: 3.20; K/BB: 1.97; IP/GS: 5.74;

Nice work jojo.. I've been wanting to see Affeldts stats as a starter.

I guess it can't hurt to have him in the rotation to at least start the year unless a move is made to the rotation. I still have a hunch with the additions of Volquez and Affeldt that maybe just maybe they could salvage one or two arms out of the Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney bunch to add to the rotation..

[wolfboy]

He's been somewhere between significantly below average to replacement level as a major league starter.

Affeldt's career as starter: ERA: 5.41 ; FIP: 5.00; K/9: 5.30; BB/9: 4.00; K/BB: 1.33; IP/GS: 5.1;

For comparison-the average NL starter in '07: ERA: 4.64 ; FIP: 4.64; K/9: 6.30; BB/9: 3.20; K/BB: 1.97; IP/GS: 5.74;

I wasn't defending his performance. I just thought I'd let you know that no one has called the guy "tremendously awesome". You seem unclear on that point.

I think there are two things we can all agree on: We did not just trade for Erik Bedard. You do not care for this signing.

For the record, his stats in 2003 (when he had blister issues):

 I Split         G  GS GF  W  L  S CG SHO   IP    ERA   H   R   ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP
+-+------------+---+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+------+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+
   as Starter    18 18  0  6  5  0  0   0  94.1   4.39 104  49  46  9  29   0  63   5 
   as Reliever   18  0  5  1  1  4  0   0  31.2   2.56  22   9   9  3   9   1  35   0 

 I Split         G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP  SB CS Pk   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+---+----+----+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
   as Starter    18  405  365  49 104 22  2  9  29   0  63   5   2   4   3  11  13  6  4  .285  .342  .430  .772  .320   102   114 as Starter   
   as Reliever   18  128  118   9  22  6  0  3   9   1  35   0   0   1   2   1   1  0  0  .186  .242  .314  .556  .235    51    54 as Reliever

Those numbers are pretty good. Not bad, not terrible. Now if you want to talk '06, that's an entirely different story. Miserable. I don't think he's the missing piece to a Reds dynasty, but I'm not going to jump off of a bridge because he was signed.