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Thread: Talent to win in '08?

  1. #1
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    Talent to win in '08?

    How many believe the Reds have the talent to make the playoffs in '08?

    With the addition of Affeldt, Cordero, Volquez, and another year of maturity for Belisle and Bailey, and a healthy Bray, I think the talent is there.

    It's not unrealistic to imagine one of Volquez or Bailey breaking out this year, or to imagine Belisle improving, or to imagine Bray and Burton locking down the 8th inning every night.

    I believe the potential is there for this team, as is, to have the best rotation and strongest pen in the Central. Am I just wearing Rosy Red colored glasses?

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    My opinion is pretty biased but I really think the Reds have the talent to win the division this year. I think the only problem with the Reds is the starting rotation and a few bad eggs on the team (Stanton and Castro).

    They've got a good infield with Votto, Phillips, Gonzo, and Edwin but the guys behind the plate are a problem. If David Ross can return to his 2006 form then the Reds will be fine.

    The outfield will be fine offensively but defensively not so much. Dunn, Griffey, and possibly Bruce will be a feared outfield at the plate. Defense is a problem here though.

    The rotation on the other hand is a big question mark behind Harang and Arroyo. My guess is Belisle or Affedlt will be the 3rd starter and the other will be the 4th. Then one of the young guns will be the 5th.

    The bullpen looks pretty good with the addition of Cordero. So the Reds have a legit closer now and a good experienced Set-up man. Hopefully Burton continues doing what he was doing in the 2nd half of the season. Coffey has been working hard in the offseason from what I've read so he could be back to 2006 form. Bray is a good lefty to have in the pen. They've got some young bullpen arms that could make an impact this year like Burton, Coutlangus, Bray, Coffey, McBeth and a few others.

    So the Reds are probably one starter away from going to the playoffs in 2008. They have a good mix of young guys and some veterans.
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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    We have the talent its just a matter as if they perform like it.

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    We DEFINATELY have the talent, but I wouldn't put our chances too high- maybe 15%?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    I don't want to get this thread off-topic, but catcher isn't a problem and I wouldn't say that it is a concern going in to 2008...
    Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 01-20-2008 at 03:05 PM.
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I don't want to get this thread off-topic, but catcher isn't a problem and I wouldn't way that it is a concern going in to 2008...
    Ross 07: .203/.271/.399 (670 OPS)
    Average MLB starter at catcher: .285/.342/.435 (777 OPS)

    Ross might be solid defensively but he is WAY below average at the plate, catcher is definitely a weak spot. I don't think it is our biggest problem right now, not at least until we get the pitching straightened out. But it is a problem.

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Ross 07: .203/.271/.399 (670 OPS)
    Average MLB starter at catcher: .285/.342/.435 (777 OPS)

    Ross might be solid defensively but he is WAY below average at the plate, catcher is definitely a weak spot. I don't think it is our biggest problem right now, not at least until we get the pitching straightened out. But it is a problem.
    Those numbers for the average catcher seem WAY too high. That is more like an all-star catcher. I'm not sure where to find the line for a league average catcher, but ZiPS has the projected average catcher for 2008 at .258/.328/.403. The only place Ross comes up short is batting average, and I would expect that to come up thanks to his microscopic .226 BABIP last year. With a .235 average and his excellent power/defense, Ross is easily league average...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bip Roberts View Post
    We have the talent its just a matter as if they perform like it.
    Yeah that's my point. For the first time in a long time we have the talent on the roster needed to make the playoffs. If they're ready, if they perform we won't be talking about '09 this summer.

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    I am a Cubs fan, so obvioulsy I like their chances still. Live closer to Cincy though so I naturally follow the Reds even though I am not a fan.

    The Reds definitely have some good young talent on the way, but I think things would have to go REALLY wrong with the Cubs and Brewers for the Reds to compete for the division next year. I think the future is looking up, but 2008 may be a bit too early.

  11. #10
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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    The tools are there. Though I'd be much more confident with one less ? in the rotation.

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Those numbers for the average catcher seem WAY too high. That is more like an all-star catcher. I'm not sure where to find the line for a league average catcher, but ZiPS has the projected average catcher for 2008 at .258/.328/.403. The only place Ross comes up short is batting average, and I would expect that to come up thanks to his microscopic .226 BABIP last year. With a .235 average and his excellent power/defense, Ross is easily league average...
    Go to ESPN team sortable stats and select "As C" as the split, then look at the bottom to find:

    Code:
    LEAGUE AVERAGES   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS 
    American League .252 .317 .393 .710 
    National League .256 .318 .393 .711 
    MLB             .254 .317 .393 .711
    We'll be fine if Ross can find the happy medium between his last two seasons and put up about a .750 OPS. It will be slugging heavy as always though.
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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    The main key will be the pitching. The bullpen seems to be improved, and we seem to have improved depth in the starting rotation. It is very important that the young starters keep us competitive, however.

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    Yes the Reds have the talent but I don't think that talent will ferment until 2009.
    "Pitching is the art of instilling fear by making a man flinch." - Sandy Koufax

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    The Cubs have too much talent for the current Reds of today to overtake. I do believe the Reds can move ahead of the Brewers in '08 if the Reds stay healthy and have some clutch hitting and pitching.

    My prediction for order of finish in the NL Central 2008:
    1- Chicago Cubs 92-70
    2-Cincinnati Reds 8GB
    3-Milwaukee Brewers 9 1/2 GB
    4-Houston Astros 14 GB
    5-St. Louis Cardinals 16 1/2 GB
    6-Pittsburgh Pirates 24 GB

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    Re: Talent to win in '08?

    Quote Originally Posted by tomd63 View Post
    Go to ESPN team sortable stats and select "As C" as the split, then look at the bottom to find:

    Code:
    LEAGUE AVERAGES   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS 
    American League .252 .317 .393 .710 
    National League .256 .318 .393 .711 
    MLB             .254 .317 .393 .711
    thanks. Those numbers look much closer to my ZiPS projections and Ross can easily put up that OPS with a little more luck and a batting average around .235...

    Quote Originally Posted by tomd63 View Post
    We'll be fine if Ross can find the happy medium between his last two seasons and put up about a .750 OPS. It will be slugging heavy as always though.
    Yeah, even if the OPS is a little lower than league average he is great defensively... so not a problem!
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."


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