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Thread: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

  1. #1
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    This is something that should be done and would be smart on the Reds front to sign Brandon Phillips to a long-term contract. Rockies just locked up Tulowitzki for six years 30 million. Now I think Phillips could be had for maybe around 25 million over 4 years which would still be a bargain considering he wants 4.2 million this year. After a 30-30 year with a decent average he could potentially make 2x/3x that next year if his numbers look similar to 07. Brandon Phillips is a player you build around and a face of the franchise type player. He seems really happy here and has stated he loves it here. If the Reds decide to just go to arbitration with him and do a one year deal they are only hurting themselves.
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    They will not go to arbitration with Brandon....it just won't get that far.

    However, I agree, signing him to a long term deal is something they should be (and probably are) looking into.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    This discussion has already started here: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64938.

    Personally, I don't pay him 2007 worthy money until I get a better feel for him. There's a lot more room for him to decline than improve and his counting stats belie good, but not great rate stats thanks to a ton of PA. If he is what he appears to be, we can make another run at a long term deal next winter. But I wouldn't want to risk him going on the Felipe Lopez / Christian Guzman career track with $25M guaranteed.

    He's a Red through 2010 in any case. No need to jump the gun.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post

    He's a Red through 2010 in any case. No need to jump the gun.
    This is too simple, yet needs to be emphasized. He is already a Red for 3 more seasons, and he won't cost them $12 mil next year, or even $8 mil. If you are going to sign him to a LTC, you do it for more than just 1 year of free agency. Wait til another decent year, then do it for 4 years. You have to sign a LTC for the purpose of keeping him past free agency by at least two years.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    This discussion has already started here: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64938.

    Personally, I don't pay him 2007 worthy money until I get a better feel for him. There's a lot more room for him to decline than improve and his counting stats belie good, but not great rate stats thanks to a ton of PA. If he is what he appears to be, we can make another run at a long term deal next winter. But I wouldn't want to risk him going on the Felipe Lopez / Christian Guzman career track with $25M guaranteed.

    He's a Red through 2010 in any case. No need to jump the gun.
    A lot of people were suspect of Phillips after his first season as a Red. He backed it up pretty well. I wonder how long people are going to want to get a better feel for Phillips? I mean if Phillips improves as much as he did over this year as he did last year then he could be a very very good player.

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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    A lot of people were suspect of Phillips after his first season as a Red. He backed it up pretty well. I wonder how long people are going to want to get a better feel for Phillips? I mean if Phillips improves as much as he did over this year as he did last year then he could be a very very good player.
    For me, one more year should be a good test of his value. Signing a LTC after a career year that may not be repeatable is never a good idea. My guess is his stats will sink slightly to somewhere between '06 and '07 levels in 2008 -- say .280/.330/.450 with decent power out of the 2B position. Those are still valuable contributions, to be sure, but they aren't Tulowitzki-level stats.
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    A lot of people were suspect of Phillips after his first season as a Red. He backed it up pretty well. I wonder how long people are going to want to get a better feel for Phillips? I mean if Phillips improves as much as he did over this year as he did last year then he could be a very very good player.
    He really didn't improve that much. Don't get me wrong, he's a good player that's an asset to the team, but I would still be wary of paying him as a franchise player.

    For starters, he made no improvement in his plate discipline last year. His walked rate decreased from a bad 6.1% to an even worse 4.8%. In addition, his strikeout rate stayed over 16%, giving him a poor 0.3 BB/K last year. Secondly, while the .058 point jump in SLG% last year was nice, I question how much of that was actual improvement, but just some nice luck. His LD% and GB% stayed about the same, so he wasn't hitting any additional fly balls last year. The only thing that really showed a jump in power was his increase in HR/FB% from 10.6% to 15%, a nearly 50% increase. HR/FB% is not usually a very repeatable stat for batters, so I would question the validity of his improvement.

    His counting statistics were nice last year, especially for a good fielding second baseman. However, his mediocre discipline and age make me question how much better he's going to become. In addition, since Phillips played half his games in Cincinnati, his stats look better than his true performance, since GABP is conducive to offense. Because of that the Reds may have to pay a premium on this inflation, which I wouldn't be all that excited to do. Since Phillips is under our control until 2010 and there are still some questions that could be answered in regards to his performance, I would prefer to wait in regards to a contract.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    A lot of people were suspect of Phillips after his first season as a Red. He backed it up pretty well. I wonder how long people are going to want to get a better feel for Phillips? I mean if Phillips improves as much as he did over this year as he did last year then he could be a very very good player.
    His OPS was 70 points higher in 2007 than it was in 2006. Why lock yourself in to 2007 pricing when the arbitration system lets you go year by year? If we wait a year, will his price go up? Do you honestly think he's going to get much better?

    Let's say we give him a long term deal now that looks like this:

    08: $2.5M
    09: $5.5M
    10: $9.0M
    11: $12.0M

    I'm intersted to see what his PECOTA looks like, but let's play with it a bit. Here are the RMR percentile projections:

    90th: .290/.360/.500
    50th: .275/.330/.460
    10th: .250/.300/.400

    What will he cost moving forward if he goes 90th percentile on us? What cost savings will we have given up if we go year to year and he does that? I can swallow paying fair market for a guy who explodes and earns that bigger paycheck. Of course, he'll still be arb eligible in 09 and 10, so we still have bargaining room.

    But what if he goes 10th percentile on us? What cost savings will we have given up if we go long term and he does that? Do you want a $12M sunk cost for a low 700s OPS 2B? Teams like ours can't afford have unproductive sunk costs and compete. I would hope that the Eric Milton and Ken Griffey Jr. deals would have shown that. I'm not saying don't go long term with anybody. I'm just saying that when you have flexibility, don't give it up so easily in your zest for a potential bargain.

    Basically, my point is that given his somewhat shallow performance record and that he still has multiple years of arbitration, there's a lot more to lose there than is to gain by going long term at this point unless the terms are extremely favorable (say, $9M in 2010 with a $10M team option in 2011). If you can get a Tulowitski like deal, then by all means. I just don't want to see us buy high unnecessarily.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-21-2008 at 06:05 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    I see no reason to sign him to a long term deal right now. I think they should be fair with him but guaranteeing a guy under your control for 3 more years 12 million 4 years from now just isn't good business IMO.
    Last edited by pedro; 01-21-2008 at 06:12 PM.
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Phillips will almost entirely be paid for his bat (GMs tend to ignore defense when it comes to paying a guy). Next season he's more likely to hit fewer than 20 hrs than he is to duplicate his 30 hrs of '07. Why risk overpaying for his bat by buying out all of his arb years?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Phillips is the type of guy that will likley always be paid more than his actual worth, as his "counting" stats are quite good for someone with his OPS.

    I think that it will likley for us to flip him when he gets too expensive as we could likley geta ton for him at that time.

    If we could trade him today for a guy like Cain, I would do it.

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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Phillips is the type of guy that will likley always be paid more than his actual worth, as his "counting" stats are quite good for someone with his OPS.

    I think that it will likley for us to flip him when he gets too expensive as we could likley geta ton for him at that time.

    If we could trade him today for a guy like Cain, I would do it.
    Why should he be penalized for his "counting" stats which are a result of being healthy and productive - am I wrong in thinking those are good things? I can understand some not liking his game because he rarely walks, but every player has their weaknesses - in spite of that, he was still very good last year. The fact of the matter is he's one of two players at his position ever to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases, while also playing exceptional defense at a premium position.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Boss-Hog View Post
    Why should he be penalized for his "counting" stats which are a result of being healthy and productive - am I wrong in thinking those are good things? I can understand some not liking his game because he rarely walks, but every player has their weaknesses - in spite of that, he was still very good last year. The fact of the matter is he's one of two players at his position ever to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases, while also playing exceptional defense at a premium position.
    Because they tend to omit the negative values associated with it. For example, Phillips was among the lead leaders in making outs and hitting in to double plays last year. Sure, durability is a great thing because he's significantly better than his replacement. However, if you compare Phillips to another player, and normalize their "counting stats" based on opportunity, you find he's not as good as you might have thought he was. When a guy gets more PA than our working, assumed baseline, it tends to make him look a bit better than he actually was.

    For example, both Phillips and Junior hit 30 HR last year. Phillips hit a HR every 23.4 PA. Junior hit one every 20.8 at bats. So if you fill in the 82 PA Phillips had over Junior with somebody else, the Reds actually get more HR production out of a comparable number of PA from Junior and Player X than they got from Phillips. In a given plate appearance, Junior was more likely to homer than Phillips.

    Taken to the extreme, if Phillips was somehow able to get 1000 PA and hit 45 HR, would that make him as good as Adam Dunn (HR wise)? Would you want to pay him accordingly? Of course not. You have to first standardize to opportunity and then you can account for the value of durability. And on the most basic level, the classic counting stats tend to ignore valuable things (like walks) and give credit for things which aren't necessilary reflective of the ability/value of the player (RBI are heavily influenced by opportunity). Phillips did not walk very much last year (or ever), and counting stats ignore that reality and it's impact on his offensive value. He also hit 4th for most of the season. However, while Dunn got railed on for not driving in 100 runs, Phillips drives in just 94 while batting clean up and people view it as an accomplishment, because he's a 2B.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-21-2008 at 06:56 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    The way I look at it is if he continues to put up the following:

    .280 AVG / 20+ HR / 80+ RBI / 25+ 2B / 25+ SB / .985+ FIELDING%

    Phillips will get raises every year in arbitration. Say they come to terms this year at 3.5 million. Next year he should be able to get 6+ million and the next 9+. That's around 19 Million. I'd like to see something on the lines of a 5 year deal for about 32 million which would average out to 6+ million per year.

    3.5 million in 2008
    5 million in 2009
    6.5 million in 2010
    8 million in 2011
    10 million in 2012

    If we wait and he does put up numbers the price tag would raise and most likely 1-2 million per year so you are looking at a 5 year deal at around 40 million.. This team has been criticized for having to much money tied up to Griffey and Dunn.. well those two may or may not be here next year and what better way to have your 2nd baseman locked up and have flexability to add to the team.
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    Re: Brandon Phillips And Long Term Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Phillips is the type of guy that will likley always be paid more than his actual worth, as his "counting" stats are quite good for someone with his OPS.

    I think that it will likley for us to flip him when he gets too expensive as we could likley geta ton for him at that time.

    If we could trade him today for a guy like Cain, I would do it.
    I have to disagree with you there my friend. I love Phillips and what he brings to this team, not just in terms of stats, but his leadership and energy. I think he's a positive influence in this clubhouse and can be an important piece in a contending team for quite a while.


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