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View Poll Results: Who is the #29 prospect?

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  • Paul Janish

    38 46.34%
  • Justin Reed

    44 53.66%
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Thread: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

  1. #16
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Here is a list of some other athletic outfield prospects in the Reds' system:

    Jay Bruce
    Drew Stubbs
    Sean Henry
    Brandon Menchaca
    Shaun Cumberland
    Chris Heisey
    Jerry Gil
    Cody Strait
    Denis Phipps
    B.J. Szymanski
    These guys may be athletic players, but Reed is reputedly a truly superior athlete. He was a high school running back with football scholarship offers. Dickerson is also a truly superior athlete, already taken in this "draft."

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    I would say that Dickerson and Stubbs are the best athletes in the system. Reed would probably be near the top of the next group.

  4. #18
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Janish. He's a defensive whiz who can take a wal Sure he's a backup IF who might luck in to a starting gig for a season sometime once. But Reed hasn't played a game above rookie ball and has a lot of hurdles to climb over. And while he did well, it's not like he was destroying the league or anything.

    I think we sometimes discount just how many players are weeded out between rookie ball and AA, let alone the majors.
    So, should we rank guys like Janish ahead of Lotzkar, Mesoraco, or Soto? Those guys haven't played a game above A ball yet either.

  5. #19
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    So, should we rank guys like Janish ahead of Lotzkar, Mesoraco, or Soto? Those guys haven't played a game above A ball yet either.
    I think in the Lotzkar/Mesoraco thing, the potential alone gets them ranked where they are and Soto has shown the ability to hit quite well, albeit in limited time. Reed struggled big time (although he certainly was quite unlucky in 2006) his first season and while he rebounded pretty well, there are still some lingering questions with him.

  6. #20
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think in the Lotzkar/Mesoraco thing, the potential alone gets them ranked where they are and Soto has shown the ability to hit quite well, albeit in limited time. Reed struggled big time (although he certainly was quite unlucky in 2006) his first season and while he rebounded pretty well, there are still some lingering questions with him.
    Now that argument I can buy and it's probably where RMR was coming from.

  7. #21
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    I voted for Reed because of Janish's underwhelming numbers at AAA. It was his first year, but he will have to hit better to make the majors.

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    So, should we rank guys like Janish ahead of Lotzkar, Mesoraco, or Soto? Those guys haven't played a game above A ball yet either.
    Well, not to be obtuse, but what makes those guys 10, 11, and 16 but Reed 29 at best?

    I'd say at that very low level, performance is less important than scouting report.

    I see a 4th round pick out of High School who has played two years in Rookie ball. Outside of a decent walk rate, nothing jumps out at me in the stats. I don't see anybody talking about how slick a fielder is, how nice his swing is, or even what a great frame he's got. He just gets the athlete tag. I'm sure Reed is a great athlete, but as others have pointed out, being a great athlete and being a great baseball player are two very different things.

    Maybe if I was hearing more about why he's a good baseball player I'd have more confidence in taking him over a guy who at least can play major league defense, if nothing else.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #23
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post

    Outside of a decent walk rate, nothing jumps out at me in the stats.

    Maybe if I was hearing more about why he's a good baseball player I'd have more confidence in taking him over a guy who at least can play major league defense, if nothing else.
    When an athlete like this has a .371 OBP and .799 OPS at age 19, he shows a lot of promise. This kid just turned twenty in November and has already put up those numbers -- showing marked improvement from his first year.

    There are 22 and 23 year old prospects rated much higher because of performances at Billings or, in somecases, Dayton. Reed's a kid who played at 19 and was pretty successful at the two Rookie ball levels and appears ready to play at Dayton as a very young prospect.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-22-2008 at 04:42 PM.

  10. #24
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    When an athlete like this has a .371 OBP and .799 OPS at age 19, he shows a lot of promise. This kid just turned twenty in November and has already put up those numbers -- showing marked improvement from his first year.

    There are 22 and 23 year old prospects rated much higher because of performances at Billings or, in somecases, Dayton. Reed's a kid who played at 19 and was pretty successful at the two Rookie ball levels and appears ready to play at Dayton as a very young prospect.
    So why is he all they way down at 29? Shouldn't he be up in the teens with the rest of the Rookie ball crowd?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #25
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    So why is he all they way down at 29? Shouldn't he be up in the teens with the rest of the Rookie ball crowd?

    Probably because his first year, 2006, when he was 18, was not good offensively. But Reed improved much in 2007.

  12. #26
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Reed isn't all that big. Apparently he's got some speed, but as far as offensive production goes, I'm not one to put much stock at all into speed unless the guy is absurdly fast and capable of being a major stolen base threat. I just think people are falsely assuming "star potential" from the guy just because he was labeled as a good "athlete". Norris Hopper seems like a pretty good athlete too. That doesn't mean he has great tools when it comes to baseball though.

  13. #27
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    IMO Reed hasn't done anything to show that he is a future major leaguer. Which is greater than Janish who has enough of a track record to show that he isn't really. Janish probably has a career as a AAA MI who will probably see some big league time occasionally when his organization is decimated by MI injuries and hopelessly out of it or dumps many of its players in a rebuild move. But I don't see him ever having a role in a "we want him on our major league team" kind of a way.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #28
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Janish has two MLB-plus tools now - glove and arm. That places him ahead of Reed for me.

    His bat was poor in 2007, but he did hit OK in 2006 (.304 BA, .830 OPS between low A, high A, and AA).

    http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=457926

    I am not convinced that 2007 is his offensive ceiling.

  15. #29
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think we sometimes discount just how many players are weeded out between rookie ball and AA, let alone the majors.
    Looks to me like Janish got weeded out in AA and AAA last season. He all but proved he's got no major league future (there is no team that wants Juan Castro Lite).

    Reed may get weeded out in the future, but he could also flourish before that, something I don't think anyone reasonably expects from Janish. My take is that, of the two, Reed's the one who profiles better when it comes to having some sort of future value.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  16. #30
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote #29 RUNOFF

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Well, not to be obtuse, but what makes those guys 10, 11, and 16 but Reed 29 at best?
    Devin Mesoraco, Kyle Lotzkar, and Todd Frazier were first round draft picks, and unless an organization's farm system is stacked (as it is in the Reds' case), they shouldn't have much trouble cracking an organization's top-ten prospects list. Neftali Soto was a third-round pick, which usually means he would need at least a full year of professional baseball before being considered a top-ten prospect, but scouts have been raving about his talent and he has had good numbers to match.

    Justin Reed, however, hasn't yet had those numbers. Supposedly, he got a late start to baseball (from what I've heard, he didn't start playing baseball until his mid-teens) and his biggest knock has always been that he may be too raw and will possibly never make up for his late start.

    Being athletic raises hype while having a lack of success and/or experience brings it down. To this point, being a fourth-rounder with very limited success, Justin Reed has had little hype.

    Last year, Juan Francisco probably would have ranked somewhat similarly to Justin Reed, but Francisco busted out in a big way in 2007 while Reed advanced only a little. Unless Reed does something great, he will always be considered a lower prospect because he wasn't signed with the hype of a first round talent, and the more time that passes without encouraging numbers, the lower down the list Reed will fall.


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