Vote between these two players only
Vote between these two players only
classic upside vs. safe bet
I think there are a few better choices at this point than either of these guys, but I'll vote for Reed in a "say no to Janish" type of a way.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Janish got thoroughly exposed in the upper minors last year (he currently owns a .325 SLG in AA and AAA). Juan Castro might be able to take his lunch money.
Meanwhile Reed made the Pioneer League top 20, not a bad accomplishment given that it's a league usually dominated by college talents.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I know Janish will play in the Major Leagues at some point, very likely this year. I don't know that Reed will. That's the difference for me.
My thoughts exactly.Originally Posted by Danny Serafini
Justin Reed has the potential to be a star, and Paul Janish has the potential to be average. Average Major Leaguers are everywhere and can be had cheaply, relatively speaking. Personally, I'd rather have Torii Hunter + Reggie Abercrombie instead of Tad Iguchi + Melvin Mora. Granted, having Iguchi and Mora makes you average at two positions (imo), but Hunter and Abercrombie give you a star and AAA fodder.
It's doubtful that Reed will become a star, but it's not impossible, and unlike Janish, he has a chance to become one. If Reed blossoms into a Torii Hunter- or even a Carl Everett-type, there is a very slim few who could replace him at the same level. If Janish "blossoms" into a Mickey Morandini-type, well, there are many more players of equal value available for practically nothing in trade or just a little money in free agency.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that very few teams have a lack of average players, but almost every team has a lack of stars, and that's why I put so much emphasis on high-ceiling prospects. For that reason, Justin Reed was a fairly easy choice for me.
I'm not so sure about that. Janish was horrific in AA and AAA last year. He profiles as a guy who won't be able to hold down any sort of job in the bigs (as opposed to Chris Dickerson who very well could be a 5th OF type).
Janish, given what he's done to date, would be lucky to have as much of a major league career as Gookie Dawkins, with Rainer Olmedo's major league service time a seemingly unapproachable goal.
Reed may not do any better in the coming years, but he put some considerable tools into action in 2007 as a 19-year-old kid. A good year in Dayton and he'll have gained some serious prospect status.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Nice duel here. Across the prospect spectrum, I think it's important to have both kinds of players -- the "baseball players," to use a George Grandism, and the "tools" guys.
I took Janish here because I think his plate discipline will allow him to improve some as a hitter. But M2 makes a good case for Reed, and I agree that a standout year in Dayton could get him to the top ten next year. To be an everyday player he's going to have to go the OBP route, and he's got some work to do there, but as a kid who didn't play a lot of baseball growing up, you have to think he's got a chance to make important strides. Right now I'm suffering from a little Kenny Lewis hangover with this kind of player, so I still fear he could hit a wall at any time, especially with that K rate.
I don't expect Janish to ever hit. He may be Juan Castro lite. But his glove will get him some Major League time. If any infielder gets hurt in Cincinnati this year, Janish is getting the call.
Justin Reed may develop into something better. He's got the higher ceiling with the bat, I don't think that's in question. But the percentages also say most minor leaguers don't make it to the Majors, and he's a long ways away. Since the point of the minor leagues is to produce Major Leaguers, at this point in the rankings my personal stance is to go with the guy most likely to make it.
Personally, I like Justin Reed more, but I can certainly understand why someone would go with Janish. I wouldn't be disappointed with either prospect being #29 (although there are probably a dozen prospects or so I'd rank ahead of those two).
I think of the rankings as "who would I rather have in my farm system". In this case, Janish at best offers nothing that a minor league free agent can't offer. I know that people here can't wait to get Juan Castro off the roster, and always have, and to me, that's basically Janish's upside. IMO, he is without value, in that a replacement for Janish could be had for basically nothing.
As for Reed, he could become a valuable commodity. I have serious reservations about him (ie. contact rate), but he can field (likely in a skill position), speed, and has a touch of patience at the plate. That type of package could make him a nice starting CF if he comes together. Those types of guys have some value and could not be acquired simply for nothing. Janish may be more likely to make the majors, but that's mainly due to lack of infield depth on the Reds part than any discernable skill that Janish has. Not to mention that you could find a dozen guys that could do what Janish will for zip.
Reed is apparently a great athlete. That doesn't mean he will be a great player, but other than Chris Dickerson I don't know how many such athletes the Reds have in the system. If he learns to hit, an athlete like this can also have a real impact defensively and on the bases. He had a .371 OBP in rookie ball which shows that he has some idea up there and doesn't just hack.
I have Reed over Janish, but Janish hit decently (.358 OBP) at AA, just not in AAA. He could adjust and hit better at AAA next year. He'll never be a great hitter, but he has had passable hitting years at some levels.
I think Reed rates higher for sure, but both are ok as top 30 picks.
After Reed comes off the board, I'm advocating Jordan Smith. Doesn't get the hype, but good prospect.
Last edited by Kc61; 01-22-2008 at 12:35 PM.
Janish. He's a defensive whiz who can take a wal Sure he's a backup IF who might luck in to a starting gig for a season sometime once. But Reed hasn't played a game above rookie ball and has a lot of hurdles to climb over. And while he did well, it's not like he was destroying the league or anything.
I think we sometimes discount just how many players are weeded out between rookie ball and AA, let alone the majors.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Here is a list of some other athletic outfield prospects in the Reds' system:
Jay Bruce
Drew Stubbs
Sean Henry
Brandon Menchaca
Shaun Cumberland
Chris Heisey
Jerry Gil
Cody Strait
Denis Phipps
B.J. Szymanski
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