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Thread: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

  1. #1
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    Baseball America says so.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=702

    The guys over at BA broke down how each team acquired their top 30 prospects and in the notes that the Reds had 2 Rule V guys listed, Jared Burton (how he didn't go over the roster time, I don't know) and Sergio Valenzuela. Its interesting to note the breakdown of the Reds prospects though:

    Code:
    ORG 	COLL 	JC 	HS 	D/F 	NDFA 	INTL 	TRADE 	RULE 5 	INDY 	FA 
    Reds 	15 	0 	7 	0 	0 	3 	3 	2 	0 	0
    Here is where the Reds rank among the 30 teams in each category
    College - 6th (tie)
    JC - 22nd (tie)
    HS - 13th (tie)
    D/F - 20th (tie)
    NDFA - the most any team had was 1
    International - 19th (tie)
    Trade - 9th (tie)
    Rule V - 1st
    Indy - only three teams even had 1.
    Free agents - only the Pirates had more than 1

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  3. #2
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    Interesting...I'd really like to see that intl number start to creep up. Only 7 teams have less than Cincy's 3.

    Those seven: Baltimore, Detroit, Florida, Pitt, Cards, TB and Washington.

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    Re: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    Why wouldn't Valenzuela make the top thirty? The Reds obviously thought highly enough of him to draft him and give him a shot at the 25-man roster.

    Thinking about it, would have been surprised if his name were not included in top thirty by BA.

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    Member chicoruiz's Avatar
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    Re: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    I guess he's a prospect; I don't really know what to call him.

    ...Except a story; he and Adam Pettyjohn are the stories I'm looking forward to following this spring.
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by chicoruiz View Post
    . . . he and Adam Pettyjohn are the stories I'm looking forward to following this spring.
    I find it simply amazing that Pettyjohn hasn't been given more of a chance in the Major Leagues. He may turn out to be the best minor league free agent signing for 2008. I'm not saying he's an ace, but on a Jim Bowden-managed Reds team, people would be talking like Pettyjohn has a good chance to be the #3 starter (for whatever that's worth).

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I find it simply amazing that Pettyjohn hasn't been given more of a chance in the Major Leagues. He may turn out to be the best minor league free agent signing for 2008. I'm not saying he's an ace, but on a Jim Bowden-managed Reds team, people would be talking like Pettyjohn has a good chance to be the #3 starter (for whatever that's worth).
    What's the difference between him and Shearn?

  8. #7
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I find it simply amazing that Pettyjohn hasn't been given more of a chance in the Major Leagues. He may turn out to be the best minor league free agent signing for 2008. I'm not saying he's an ace, but on a Jim Bowden-managed Reds team, people would be talking like Pettyjohn has a good chance to be the #3 starter (for whatever that's worth).
    I sincerely doubt that.

    Pettyjohn really hasn't been good throughout his long minor league career. The guy will be 31 in June, and his BB rate (2.29 per 9 IP) is the only thing even mildly interesting. The guy has played a ton versus younger competition, but still can't strike hitters out at a decent enough pace consistently. His MiLB HR/9 rate of 0.91 simply doesn't project.

    He's fodder.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    Convince me that Pettyjohn isn't a slightly better version of Ricky Stone.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #9
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Sergio Valenzuela, Reds top 30 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Convince me that Pettyjohn isn't a slightly better version of Ricky Stone.
    Firstly, let me clarify what I meant: Amongst people in Pettyjohn's situation (which is a minor league free agent starting pitcher), Pettyjohn might have been the best player available.

    Secondly, let me state for the record that I am not personally excited about Adam Pettyjohn--all I'm trying to say is that amongst minor league free agent pitchers, I think he was possibly the best option available.

    Code:
    	  W   W% GS    IP WHIP  H/9 BB/9 SO/9 K/BB
    TOTAL	 16 .737 28 161.1 1.20 8.91 1.90 7.64 4.03
    RANK*	  1    4  2     3    2    6    2    4    2
    
    The rank is amongst minor league free agent pitchers with at least 10 starts in AAA in 2007.
    As for comparing him to Ricky Stone, for starters, Stone doesn't have the control of Pettyjohn, resulting in Stone walking more than one batter per nine innings than Pettyjohn.

    Second of all, Ricky Stone has already established himself as a failed starter and is in the process of proving he has little-to-no value as a reliever; meanwhile, Pettyjohn hasn't been given a shot at the bullpen and move prove to be valuable there.

    Third of all, there is a three-year difference between the two players, and you could argue that Pettyjohn could be a late bloomer entering his prime while Stone has been exiting his prime since 2003.

    Fourth of all, have you seen Stone pitch? Outside of Phil Dumatrait, I'm not sure I've ever seen worse pitching in a Reds uniform. How could Pettyjohn not be a noticeable upgrade?

    My prediction, and I think someone may have already said the same thing, is that Pettyjohn will be 2008's Victor Santos. That's not very high praise, but even Santos had value as a mopup pitcher and was traded late in the year for cash. One difference between Pettyjohn and Santos, though, is that Pettyjohn hasn't been given over 600 innings to prove himself. Heck, he hasn't even be given 100 innings. I just wouldn't be surprised if he put up Matt Belisle-type numbers at a league minimum, and I think he deserves a chance if he puts up good numbers in spring training and/or Louisville.


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