not hopelessness -- KC's drafted pretty well lately -- nobody drafts well all the time, nobody bombs all the time -- there's no "system" to ityour numbers show that the Reds produced three pretty good ballplayers, when the Royals had absolutely none. That's a huge difference. That's hope vs. hopelessness
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
If you assume a 25% success rate for first rounders become decent major leaguers, the chances of getting no decent major leaguers is .75^11.7 (350/30) = 3.5%. That means if players were assigned randomly, you'd likely get at least 1 team with no good major leaguers. The average team will get 3.
Now, I understand that the Royals tended to pick in the upper half of the draft. I also understand that talent evaluation and development is hardly random. However, I think understanding that if it were random, at least 1 team would probably get nobody of value is an important point. It's a real crapshoot out there.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
the pattern that is patternlessness counts toough. I worry about pattern recognition by Americans
Just a minor note about "making the majors" as being a meaningful category. Bad organizations have a real stake in getting their high picks into the majors, however briefly. It makes them look less bad than they really are.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Thanks RMR, you had to remind us about Chad Mottola.
I had completely forgotten about that horrendous pick.
Paul Janish and Chris Dickerson should expect similar career paths.
23 Years and Counting...
IIrc, Sardinha being on the Major League roster had more to do with him having a Major League contract (and in 2003, the Reds didn't have another team playing in September).