not hopelessness -- KC's drafted pretty well lately -- nobody drafts well all the time, nobody bombs all the time -- there's no "system" to ityour numbers show that the Reds produced three pretty good ballplayers, when the Royals had absolutely none. That's a huge difference. That's hope vs. hopelessness
Here's an exercise. Take 350 first round draft picks over 10 years. Assign them randomly to 30 teams. See how many teams end up with how many good major leaguers.
If you assume a 25% success rate for first rounders become decent major leaguers, the chances of getting no decent major leaguers is .75^11.7 (350/30) = 3.5%. That means if players were assigned randomly, you'd likely get at least 1 team with no good major leaguers. The average team will get 3.
Now, I understand that the Royals tended to pick in the upper half of the draft. I also understand that talent evaluation and development is hardly random. However, I think understanding that if it were random, at least 1 team would probably get nobody of value is an important point. It's a real crapshoot out there.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
the pattern that is patternlessness counts toough. I worry about pattern recognition by Americans
Just a minor note about "making the majors" as being a meaningful category. Bad organizations have a real stake in getting their high picks into the majors, however briefly. It makes them look less bad than they really are.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Thanks RMR, you had to remind us about Chad Mottola.
I had completely forgotten about that horrendous pick.
Not that it has any bearing on your overall point, but lots of times players will get a free pass to the bigs at premium defensive positions. Sardinha is a perfect example of that -- most teams can afford to have a weak-stick backup catcher on the roster if injury creates a need for a warm body on the 25 man. You can also look at guys like Bergolla and Olmedo -- defense-first players who couldn't hit a lick and only get ML service time because injuries required a backup be summoned from AAA.
Paul Janish and Chris Dickerson should expect similar career paths.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
IIrc, Sardinha being on the Major League roster had more to do with him having a Major League contract (and in 2003, the Reds didn't have another team playing in September).
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