Yankess and Robinson Cano contract...

[BLEEDS]

If you want to see a contract for comps for BP, let's look at Robinson Cano:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...v=ap&type=lgns

Cano and Yankees close to $30 million, 4-year contract

includes two option years.


Cano is a bit more "proven" than BP, and is much better hitter for power, average, and OBP/OPS.

Fay threw out 3 years $20M which is highway robbery compared to what the Yankees - yes I said YANKEES - are giving to Cano.

I'd be all about the Option years for Brandon. He could easily go back to slugging .~420 (his average and 2006 number).

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[FlightRick]

I brought up Cano in another thread related to our handling of Phillips... at the time, I found it odd that Cano and Phillips were asking for the same dollar figure in arbitration, despite the fact that I thought it patently obvious that Cano was the superior player.

The question of "valuation" came up, and somebody posted that $8m per year would probably be about where we should be when offering Phillips an LTC. I was dubious about that, but had no real concrete thought process in place in order to counter with a different figure.

If this deal with Cano and the Yanks goes down: we have our thought process. The Yankees will have shown us the amount we *DON'T* have to pay to retain Brandon Phillips' services.

Cano: 1600 major league ABs, accumulated in 3 relatively consistent seasons (all above average, offensively, and trending upward in the power department). Aged 25.

Phillips: Also 1600 major league ABs, bue acculated in 2 full seasons (only one of them above average, offensively, with no clear trends as to sustainability) and 4 season fragments. Aged 27.

If Cano is worth $7.5m, I say we start thinking of Phillips being worth a max of 4 yrs/$24m (maybe something like $3.5m in 2008, then $5m, $6m, and $7m; throw in a seven-figure team option year w/ $2m buyout). If that deal can be done, I'd grudgingly do it. Anything more than that and Phillips is playing on the cheap this year, and we'll reprise the debate after we see what he does in 2008.


Rick

[*BaseClogger*]

I just threw $8 million out there. Plus that was for five seasons, which buys out more FA years...

[crazybob60]

I would love to see them lock up BP for a handful of years.

And I can see the Cano connection big time. And well the similar dollar amounts don't surprise me either, as long as it doesn't get too out of control on the Cano side, ya know?

[mlbfan30]

Also keep in mind that BP is a better fielder than Cano and might be 1/2 a win better in defense. Also Cano is a super 2 which means he has an extra year of arb eligibility (4 years) compared to 3 for BP. It might be alright to give BP a similar deal, but I'm a lot more worried about his offense compared to Cano. Also keep in mind that BP is older and a extension would go into his decline phase.

[BLEEDS]

Also keep in mind that BP is a better fielder than Cano and might be 1/2 a win better in defense. Also Cano is a super 2 which means he has an extra year of arb eligibility (4 years) compared to 3 for BP. It might be alright to give BP a similar deal, but I'm a lot more worried about his offense compared to Cano. Also keep in mind that BP is older and a extension would go into his decline phase.

Hopefully you don't think .5 win = $10M ?!?!

Also, being a Super II should mean it's a BIGGER deal than less - since you are buying MORE years than less versus BP.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[TC81190]

Cano is a much better hitter for AVERAGE, but power and OBP wise, thats laughable. The man has a career high in walks at 39.

[GoReds33]

Cano is a much better hitter for AVERAGE, but power and OBP wise, thats laughable. The man has a career high in walks at 39.

I was going to point out the power part. Cano and Phillips are both comporable power hitters, just from different sides of the plate. They both get on base differently, but not at that big of a difference. Cano had a .353 OBP last year, and Phillips' was .331. There is a difference, but it's not that big.

[BLEEDS]

Cano is a much better hitter for AVERAGE, but power and OBP wise, thats laughable. The man has a career high in walks at 39.

Cano has a CAREER SLG of .489, and never been below .450.

Last year was the FIRST year BP slugged above .450 and his Career SLG is .419. Obviously playing in GABP helped him a bit the last two - however some have broken down how LUCKY he was to get a number of his HR"s. I doubt he'll get 30 HR's this year, although I'll be wishing for it.

Cano's OBP has been above .350 the last two years, and was .320 in his rookie year. I doubt Phillips will EVER get much above .330 EVER in his career.

He's a MUCH better hitter, across the board than Phillips, period.
Put him in GABP for 300 AB's and he'd get 30 HR's too...

There isn't even an argument - in fact the LAUGHABLE part is that anyone would try to argue the other way.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[SMcGavin]

Cano has a CAREER SLG of .489, and never been below .450.

Last year was the FIRST year BP slugged above .450 and his Career SLG is .419. Obviously playing in GABP helped him a bit the last two - however some have broken down how LUCKY he was to get a number of his HR"s. I doubt he'll get 30 HR's this year, although I'll be wishing for it.

Cano's OBP has been above .350 the last two years, and was .320 in his rookie year. I doubt Phillips will EVER get much above .330 EVER in his career.

He's a MUCH better hitter, across the board than Phillips, period.
Put him in GABP for 300 AB's and he'd get 30 HR's too...

There isn't even an argument - in fact the LAUGHABLE part is that anyone would try to argue the other way.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Yeah. Phillips is a good player, but Robinson Cano is way better than him and it's not really close. In no way does BP deserve Robinson Cano dollars.

[TC81190]

Phillips 07 IsoOBP - .043
Cano 07 IsoOBP - .047

Cano 07 IsoSLG - .182
Phillips 07 IsoSLG - .197

Not even close? I think one could argue Phillips is better, especially when you begin to factor in that Phillips has a considerable edge over Cano on defense.

[FlightRick]

The debate here is not, should not, and cannot be about "Phillips 07" and "Cano 07." The respective teams have already paid for 07. We're talking about what is to come.

Accepting the notion that Cano 07 and Phillips 07 are at least in the same ballpark, we also must notice that Cano 07 pretty much represents Cano 3 Year Career (3 essentially consistent years, all above average offensively). Phillips 07 has no discernable correlation to Phillips 6 Year Career (where he's all over the place and has only the 1 above average offensive year).

I'm not saying Phillips is worthless, or anything. I'm just saying that if the former gets $7.5m/yr, the latter gets less. The thread is about what the Cano deal teaches us about Phillips: repeating myself from before, it teaches us what we absolutely don't have to pay to keep the guy around.

[SMcGavin]

Phillips 07 IsoOBP - .043
Cano 07 IsoOBP - .047

Cano 07 IsoSLG - .182
Phillips 07 IsoSLG - .197

Not even close? I think one could argue Phillips is better, especially when you begin to factor in that Phillips has a considerable edge over Cano on defense.

So what, you're saying they walk the same amount, so they are similar players ? I'm not really sure what the point of posting those numbers is.

Phillips 06: .276/.324/.427 88 OPS+
Cano 06: .342/.365/.525 125 OPS+

Phillips 07: .288/.331/.485 105 OPS+
Cano 07: .306/.353/.488 120 OPS+

2007 was a career year for Phillips, and it was an average year for Cano (quite a bit worse than his 2006 actually). Despite that, Cano had a better batting average, a better OBP, and a better SLG. He did that even though he plays in a harder league and park. So yea, Cano is better and it's not close. Oh and Cano is pretty good defensively too.

[mlbfan30]

Hopefully you don't think .5 win = $10M ?!?!

Also, being a Super II should mean it's a BIGGER deal than less - since you are buying MORE years than less versus BP.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

When did I say 1/2 a win = 10M?

Cano is getting 4 controlled years for 30M plus 2 options at 13M and 15M

BP at 4 years at 30M means 3 controlled year + a year of FA. That extra year in FA makes up the difference in production value. It's equivelent to Cano's 13M option.

Cano will make 5M next year, so in terms of a 3 year deal for BP it's a 3/25 or about 8M a year. That is somewhat high, but comparable.

If you make a 4 year deal for BP, buying out a FA year, thats a 4/38 type deal. Meaning that's what Cano get's for those same years of service.

If we gave BP a 4/30 deal, it would be about 2M per year less than what Cano would be getting, so a similar deal to BP is reasonable. BP isn't as good offensively and will be on the decline, but is better defensively. It would be a very reasonable move.

Does this make sense to you people? Arb years and FA matter when discussing contracts.

[BLEEDS]

When did I say 1/2 a win = 10M?

Cano is getting 4 controlled years for 30M plus 2 options at 13M and 15M

BP at 4 years at 30M means 3 controlled year + a year of FA. That extra year in FA makes up the difference in production value. It's equivelent to Cano's 13M option. Does this make sense to you people? Arb years and FA matter when discussing contracts.

Your numbers aren't 100% accurate.

Cano's deal is 4 years $28M. That is for four years of Arb. He is a "Super 2", BP is not.
He gets $2M if his options aren't picked up. The options are worth $27M. That brings it to 6 years $55M.

There's no real discount as far as 4th year Arb versus FA, IMO. We are talking how much they are worth, year-in and year-out. BP doesn't get the benefit of the doubt here just because he hits FA earlier. His career is no match to Cano, who is a much more proven commodity.

That's a magnificent deal for the Yankees, who are giving themselves the upper hand - if he continues to flourish, they are possibly getting a deal for yes 5/6, if he tanks, they refuse the options.

We'd be FOOLISH not to do the same.

The point is, he is a lessor player, and we should by no means pay more - or give less options - than what the Yankees, a team with more excess $$ than the Reds can dream, give to their better star 2b-man.

PEACE

-BLEEDS