If the Ms and Os trade goes through (who knows), it will mean that the Reds did not sell low on Bailey (at least for now). In early last season, Bailey was as untouchable as Bruce, maybe more so. The guy has 9 starts, some of them while injured, and all of a sudden he has all kinds of question marks. There are plenty of great pitchers who struggled in their first few starts. They also had things the scouts said needed to improve.

I don't claim to follow or know baseball as much as some people on this site, but from what I have seen and read about Bailey, he has the fastball and the breaking ball to be a #1 or #2 starter. It would not surprise me to see him have a breakout 2008 and pitch around league average ERA for his first full season. That may not seem like turning the corner, but in Aaron Harang's first full season, he put up an ERA of about 5.30 and there are very few I would trade Aaron Harang for. If Bailey can have that breakout year and Arroyo does not return to 2006 form, I think you could see him challenging for the #2 spot in 2009.

Of course, you never know with pitchers. However, I think Bailey will be a good one and that we will be glad we hung onto him.