I'm glad the Reds didn't sell low on Bailey

[The Snow Chief]

If the Ms and Os trade goes through (who knows), it will mean that the Reds did not sell low on Bailey (at least for now). In early last season, Bailey was as untouchable as Bruce, maybe more so. The guy has 9 starts, some of them while injured, and all of a sudden he has all kinds of question marks. There are plenty of great pitchers who struggled in their first few starts. They also had things the scouts said needed to improve.

I don't claim to follow or know baseball as much as some people on this site, but from what I have seen and read about Bailey, he has the fastball and the breaking ball to be a #1 or #2 starter. It would not surprise me to see him have a breakout 2008 and pitch around league average ERA for his first full season. That may not seem like turning the corner, but in Aaron Harang's first full season, he put up an ERA of about 5.30 and there are very few I would trade Aaron Harang for. If Bailey can have that breakout year and Arroyo does not return to 2006 form, I think you could see him challenging for the #2 spot in 2009.

Of course, you never know with pitchers. However, I think Bailey will be a good one and that we will be glad we hung onto him.

[AmarilloRed]

He has 2 plus pitches(fastball and curve) and an average changeup. His stuff is good enough to be a #1 or #2; he simply has to work on his command of those pitches and his control. This upcoming year will tell the tale.

[kbrake]

I think command is an issue but I think way too many people are forgetting that Bailey struggled with a groin injury for most of 2007. If Bailey stays healthy in 2008, and I see no indication why he wouldn't, I think we will see a much improved Homer Bailey.

[Bip Roberts]

Im actually pretty happy to have young guys to cheer for this year unlike others. Normally we have aging vets with no real future.

[AmarilloRed]

I think command is an issue but I think way too many people are forgetting that Bailey struggled with a groin injury for most of 2007. If Bailey stays healthy in 2008, and I see no indication why he wouldn't, I think we will see a much improved Homer Bailey.

A comparison of how Bailey pitched when he was healthy vs. injured:


Status IP H K BB ERA WHIP
Healthy 93.3 67 71 42 2.89 1.17
Injured 19.3 25 16 18 10.24 2.24

[kbrake]

Im actually pretty happy to have young guys to cheer for this year unlike others. Normally we have aging vets with no real future.

I agree with your thoughts but I still have lots of fear that we will come north with Freel in center, Affeldt in the rotation, Hatteberg at first base and Mike Stanton and Juan Castro will still have jobs.

Those things don't happen and win or lose its still going to be worth watching to at least see what Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and Votto can do.

[The Snow Chief]

Im actually pretty happy to have young guys to cheer for this year unlike others. Normally we have aging vets with no real future.

I'm with you. I understand the desire to get much better right away. However, sometimes the price is just too high. People say we have been rebuilding for years. I don't think so. We have sucked for years. There is a difference between sucking and rebuilding.

[BLEEDS]

I think he really did well when he came back after his injury.

However, his best games came against Oakland and SFO, two teams that at the time had an offense not any better than those he faced in Louisville...

I like his stuff, but it's still not near consistent enough. Hopefully he pitches himself into the rotation, but he's still got a lot of learning to do. HOPEFULLY he learned he can't just shake off the catcher to get to his fastball everytime he gets behind, that was a formula for disaster in the limited time he had in the BIGS.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[chettt]

It wasn't that long ago - Brandon Claussen was our " Young Gun". Now, we have a corral full of "Young Guns" - Bailey, Cueto, Valquez, Livingston, Maloney, Bray - the list goes on & on. What was Claussen's downfall? Injury? Talent? Determination? All of the above?

[podgejeff_]

I think the consensus was that he never regained his stuff after a surgery he had. So you could probably put it down as injury.

[BLEEDS]

A comparison of how Bailey pitched when he was healthy vs. injured:


Status IP H K BB ERA WHIP
Healthy 93.3 67 71 42 2.89 1.17
Injured 19.3 25 16 18 10.24 2.24

Where did you accumulate those from? Combining Minor league innings?

He pitched 45.3 innings over 9 games in the Majors in 2007.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[The Snow Chief]

It wasn't that long ago - Brandon Claussen was our " Young Gun". Now, we have a corral full of "Young Guns" - Bailey, Cueto, Valquez, Livingston, Maloney, Bray - the list goes on & on. What was Claussen's downfall? Injury? Talent? Determination? All of the above?

Not sure, I know he had that rotator cuff problem in AAA. I don't know if it was that he never was able to come back from that/ However, I don't think he was ever projected to be in Bailey's league. I think many thought he would be an mlb starting pitcher, but I don't recall him being discussed as a future #1 starter. We just had so few SP prospects at the time, he looked like the class of the group.

[The Snow Chief]

I guess the other thing is that besides the injury question, 9 games is just not a very significant sample size. Harang had an ERA of 5.04 after 8 games this season and went on to have a top 5 season among NL starters IMO.

[kbrake]

I believe Claussen had Tommy John while still with the Yankees and I think after that he was never projected the way Bailey has been. Maybe before the surgery but pretty sure not nearly the expectations afterwards.

[jimbo]

What was Claussen's downfall? Injury? Talent? Determination? All of the above?

I always though Claussen had decent stuff, he just didn't have the mental game needed to succeed in the majors. He pitched too "soft," IMO.