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Thread: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

  1. #61
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I really do think Princeton said it best in his post. True top level pitching shouldn't languish in the minor leagues. Yes, the guys will have their rough spots but getting the electric arms to the big league team should be a priority. Otherwise, you are wasting their fastballs, curveballs and changeups in leagues that don't count.

    Look, I was a big advocate of getting Bedard. I would like nothing better than first rate veteran pitching. But if that can't happen, then the second choice is to get moving with these great young arms..

    it depends on how they do this spring, but I'd go Volquez and maybe Maloney or Cueto in bullpen, until they dominate and you can put them in the rotation. I'd cherry-pick who they face early, so that they'd succeed. I'd go Bailey at AAA for a few starts. If any major leaguer struggles, he goes down. If Bailey sizzles, he comes up and gets some bullpen time until he dominates.
    Last edited by princeton; 01-31-2008 at 03:55 PM.

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  3. #62
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You are right, kid pitchers do fail in large numbers.... but we aren't talking just any kid pitchers, we are talking kid pitchers in the upper minors with successful track records all the way through AA. there is a large difference between a 19 year old with tons of potential in Low A and a 21 or 22 year old with tons of potential in AA/AAA and you know it. You are using an awful large paint brush to paint your picture when in fact you should be using a fine brush to paint the picture involving the Reds prospects (at least with Bailey and Cueto, not so much Maloney).
    21- and 22-year-old pitchers in AA/AAA with track records and tons of potential fail in large numbers too. Beyond the fact that pitchers that age are disastrous (pick any year and look at the pathetic totals posted by that age group), here's the success rates of starting pitchers from BA's AA and AAA top 10s from five years ago:

    AA - 5-15, two others (Aaron Heilman and Rafael Soriano) became successful relievers

    AAA - 3-5, small group, which reflects how few of these "hot" prospects spend time in AAA. BTW, that 3 includes Brett Myers and Aaron Cook, so it's not like that's a stud factory. Cook and John Lackey, the other member of the triumverate, were also 23.

    Cook is also double-counted. He's on the AA list with Jake Peavy, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden and Cliff Lee. So, five years later, if you took all the studs from AAA and AA, you'd be able to put together just about one full, healthy rotation. Bedard and Lee were also 23.

    So if you take all the top pitchers from AAA and AA from five years ago and back out the guys who debuted in the majors at ages 23 or later, you get three kids who made it - Peavy, Myers and Harden. Tres, trois, drei.

    I could repeat that exercise endlessly. It's like shooting fish in a barrel.

    With that in mind, you can plan on a high failure rate from the following group (listed in no specific order):

    Wade Davis
    Johnny Cueto
    Manny Parra
    Gio Gonzalez
    Clay Buchholz
    Ian Kennedy
    Jair Jurrjens
    Alan Horne
    Collin Balester
    Nick Adenhart
    Greg Reynolds
    Luke Hochevar
    Franklin Morales
    Eric Hurley
    Troy Patton
    Homer Bailey
    Matt Garza
    Jeff Niemann
    Yovani Gallardo

    It's probably a safe bet that 10-12 of those 19 kids will have no significant major league future and the highest failure rate will come from the sub-23-year-old ranks.
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  4. #63
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    21- and 22-year-old pitchers in AA/AAA with track records and tons of potential fail in large numbers too. Beyond the fact that pitchers that age are disastrous (pick any year and look at the pathetic totals posted by that age group), here's the success rates of starting pitchers from BA's AA and AAA top 10s from five years ago:

    AA - 5-15, two others (Aaron Heilman and Rafael Soriano) became successful relievers

    AAA - 3-5, small group, which reflects how few of these "hot" prospects spend time in AAA. BTW, that 3 includes Brett Myers and Aaron Cook, so it's not like that's a stud factory. Cook and John Lackey, the other member of the triumverate, were also 23.

    Cook is also double-counted. He's on the AA list with Jake Peavy, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden and Cliff Lee. So, five years later, if you took all the studs from AAA and AA, you'd be able to put together just about one full, healthy rotation. Bedard and Lee were also 23.

    So if you take all the top pitchers from AAA and AA from five years ago and back out the guys who debuted in the majors at ages 23 or later, you get three kids who made it - Peavy, Myers and Harden. Tres, trois, drei.

    I could repeat that exercise endlessly. It's like shooting fish in a barrel.

    With that in mind, you can plan on a high failure rate from the following group (listed in no specific order):

    Wade Davis
    Johnny Cueto
    Manny Parra
    Gio Gonzalez
    Clay Buchholz
    Ian Kennedy
    Jair Jurrjens
    Alan Horne
    Collin Balester
    Nick Adenhart
    Greg Reynolds
    Luke Hochevar
    Franklin Morales
    Eric Hurley
    Troy Patton
    Homer Bailey
    Matt Garza
    Jeff Niemann
    Yovani Gallardo

    It's probably a safe bet that 10-12 of those 19 kids will have no significant major league future and the highest failure rate will come from the sub-23-year-old ranks.
    I am working on a study right now, which is currently incomplete as its going to take a nice chunk of time that I haven't had lately.... but it basically revolves around the basis of BA Top 100 prospects that were pitchers, versus their rankings, versus their level of their ranking and how things play out when a guy is ranked in different tiers by their ranking and their level at the time of the ranking. I think it will be interesting to see how it all plays out once its done.

  5. #64
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I suppose I should have said "better" rather than "comparable". Either way, they're not worth burning a pre-arb year if you really think that he's going to eventually be a top of the rotation guy, a roll he not even close to achieving yet.
    No pitcher is going to start in the majors completly ready. They are going to take their lumps pretty much no matter what. I don't see a problem with burning a "pre-arb" year if that year is used to improve while pitching to major league pitchers. If Belisle is going to do what he did last year then I see absolutly nothing positive about running him out there instead of Homer.

    I don't think your ever fully ready to make the jump to the bigs. I think a guy like Homer is more talented thta 90-95% of the players in AAA and he really won't refine his pitching that much at that level. There are all different philosophies in dealing with prospects and who is to tell us mine is right or yours is right?

  6. #65
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    ..... and he really won't refine his pitching that much at that level.
    I couldn't disagree with this statement more.

    What's entirely more likely if the Reds throw him to the wolves this year is that he'll never fully develop his secondary pitches and will never reach his potential.
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  7. #66
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    I could repeat that exercise endlessly. It's like shooting fish in a barrel.
    Yet evidently it's a hard concept for many to grasp.

  8. #67
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    There are all different philosophies in dealing with prospects and who is to tell us mine is right or yours is right?
    I've got history on my side.

    You don't.

    I have no problem with Bailey finishing this year in the Reds rotation but he has no business IMO starting the year there. He should be in AAA to start the season proving that he can dominate there without over relying on his fastball, which he has not yet done.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  9. #68
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I couldn't disagree with this statement more.

    What's entirely more likely if the Reds throw him to the wolves this year is that he'll never fully develop his secondary pitches and will never reach his potential.
    I disagree with you. Bailey can get away going FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, CB, FB, FB, FB, CB, CB, FB, FB, FB, FB in a minor league inning. He isn't going to get away with that in the majors. He isn't going to learn that he can't get away with that in the majors, when he is in the minors and its his pitch selection that I personally believe is his biggest hurdle in his development right now, followed by the development of his change up, followed by his control.

  10. #69
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    What I appreciate about M2's post is that he named names. I really don't get all of the gray matter it took to get the list, but I do get the list. Thanks M2
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  11. #70
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Since the strike in 94 there have been 146 pitchers the age of 22 and under who had a season with 10 starts and 100 IP.

    Here they are ranked by RSAA (Runs Saved Above Average) only 65 have positive RSAA's... might as well flip a coin

    Code:
    RSAA                          YEAR    RSAA      GS       AGE    
    1    Mark Prior               2003       42       30       22   
    2    Mark Buehrle             2001       32       32       22   
    3    Francisco Liriano        2006       31       16       22   
    4    Carlos Zambrano          2003       26       32       22   
    5    Oliver Perez             2004       25       30       22   
    T6   Scott Kazmir             2006       23       24       22   
    T6   Zach Duke                2005       23       14       22   
    8    Rick Ankiel              2000       22       30       20   
    T9   Freddy Garcia            1999       21       33       22   
    T9   Chad Billingsley         2007       21       20       22   
    T11  Matt Morris              1997       20       33       22   
    T11  Jose Rosado              1996       20       16       21   
    T11  Josh Johnson             2006       20       24       22   
    T11  Barry Zito               2000       20       14       22   
    T15  Anibal Sanchez           2006       18       17       22   
    T15  Joel Pineiro             2001       18       11       22   
    T17  Roy Halladay             1999       17       18       22   
    T17  Matt Cain                2007       17       32       22   
    19   Ismael Valdes            1995       16       27       21   
    T20  Felix Hernandez          2005       15       12       19   
    T20  Kerry Wood               1998       15       26       21   
    T22  Rich Harden              2004       14       31       22   
    T22  Jerome Williams          2003       14       21       21   
    T24  Jason Marquis            2001       13       16       22   
    T24  C.C. Sabathia            2003       13       30       22   
    T26  Dontrelle Willis         2003       12       27       21   
    T26  Jason Isringhausen       1995       12       14       22   
    T26  Jon Garland              2001       12       16       21   
    T29  Ismael Valdes            1996       11       33       22   
    T29  Scott Kazmir             2005       11       32       21   
    T31  Livan Hernandez          1997       10       17       22   
    T31  Felix Hernandez          2007       10       30       21   
    T31  Yovani Gallardo          2007       10       17       21   
    T34  Kyle Kendrick            2007        9       20       22   
    T34  Mark Prior               2002        9       19       21   
    T34  Ugueth Urbina            1996        9       17       22   
    T37  Jamey Wright             1996        8       15       21   
    T37  David Williams           2001        8       18       22   
    T37  Kelvim Escobar           1998        8       10       22   
    T37  Chad Billingsley         2006        8       16       21   
    T37  Cole Hamels              2006        8       23       22   
    T42  Gil Meche                2000        7       15       21   
    T42  Matt Cain                2006        7       31       21   
    T42  Jesse Litsch             2007        7       20       22   
    T42  Zack Greinke             2004        7       24       20   
    46   Mike Hampton             1995        6       24       22   
    T47  Scott Olsen              2006        5       31       22   
    T47  Bud Smith                2001        5       14       21   
    T47  Jose Paniagua            1996        5       11       22   
    T50  C.C. Sabathia            2002        4       33       21   
    T50  Jeremi Gonzalez          1997        4       23       22   
    T50  Carlos Zambrano          2002        4       16       21   
    T50  Brandon Lyon             2001        4       11       21   
    T54  Gil Meche                1999        3       15       20   
    T54  Jerome Williams          2004        3       22       22   
    T54  Brandon McCarthy         2005        3       10       21   
    T54  Jose Rosado              1997        3       33       22   
    T54  Oliver Perez             2002        3       15       20   
    T54  Tony Armas Jr.           2000        3       17       22   
    T54  C.C. Sabathia            2001        3       33       20   
    T61  Phil Hughes              2007        2       13       21   
    T61  Sidney Ponson            1999        2       32       22   
    T61  Miguel Asencio           2002        2       21       21   
    T61  Dontrelle Willis         2004        2       32       22   
    T65  Joe Kennedy              2001        1       20       22   
    T65  Yusmeiro Petit           2007        1       10       22   
    T65  Adam Eaton               2000        1       22       22   
    T65  Jaret Wright             1997        1       16       21   
    T69  Jason Vargas             2005        0       13       22   
    T69  Bill Pulsipher           1995        0       17       21   
    T69  Jon Garland              2002        0       33       22   
    T72  Jon Lester               2006       -1       15       22   
    T72  Josh Beckett             2002       -1       21       22   
    T72  Ruben Quevedo            2001       -1       10       22   
    T72  Carlos Hernandez         2002       -1       21       22   
    T76  Rich Harden              2003       -2       13       21   
    T76  Jeff D'Amico             1997       -2       23       21   
    T78  Jaret Wright             1998       -3       32       22   
    T78  Joaquin Benoit           2002       -3       13       22   
    T80  Jeff D'Amico             1996       -4       17       20   
    T80  Brett Myers              2002       -4       12       21   
    T80  Javier Vazquez           1999       -4       26       22   
    T80  Dennys Reyes             1998       -4       10       21   
    T84  Jake Peavy               2003       -5       32       22   
    T84  Felix Hernandez          2006       -5       31       20   
    T84  Nick Neugebauer          2002       -5       12       21   
    T84  Brad Penny               2000       -5       22       22   
    T84  Chris George             2001       -5       13       21   
    T84  Kyle Davies              2005       -5       14       21   
    T90  Ryan Dempster            1999       -6       25       22   
    T90  Carl Pavano              1998       -6       23       22   
    T90  Chris Carpenter          1997       -6       13       22   
    T90  Ben Sheets               2001       -6       25       22   
    T90  Jeremy Bonderman         2005       -6       29       22   
    T90  Rocky Coppinger          1996       -6       22       22   
    T96  Ervin Santana            2005       -7       23       22   
    T96  Seth Greisinger          1998       -7       21       22   
    T96  Sean Burnett             2004       -7       13       21   
    T96  Andrew Miller            2007       -7       13       22   
    T100 Dan Haren                2003       -8       14       22   
    T100 Brett Myers              2003       -8       32       22   
    T100 Jake Peavy               2002       -8       17       21   
    103  Jeremy Bonderman         2004       -9       32       21   
    T104 Jose Lima                1995      -10       15       22   
    T104 Jesse Foppert            2003      -10       21       22   
    T104 Brad Radke               1995      -10       28       22   
    T104 Adam Loewen              2006      -10       19       22   
    T104 Dave Borkowski           1999      -10       12       22   
    T104 Jon Garland              2000      -10       13       20   
    110  Jo-Jo Reyes              2007      -11       10       22   
    T111 John Stephens            2002      -12       11       22   
    T111 Amaury Telemaco          1996      -12       17       22   
    T111 John Danks               2007      -12       26       22   
    T111 Randy Wolf               1999      -12       21       22   
    T111 Jeff Weaver              1999      -12       29       22   
    T111 Kyle Lohse               2001      -12       16       22   
    T117 Mark Mulder              2000      -13       27       22   
    T117 Glendon Rusch            1997      -13       27       22   
    T117 Sidney Ponson            1998      -13       20       21   
    T120 Brandon Lyon             2002      -14       10       22   
    T120 Nate Cornejo             2001      -14       10       21   
    T120 Jeff Suppan              1997      -14       22       22   
    T123 Frankie Rodriguez        1995      -15       18       22   
    T123 Jimmy Gobble             2004      -15       24       22   
    T123 Bob Wolcott              1996      -15       28       22   
    T123 J.P. Howell              2005      -15       15       22   
    T127 C.J. Nitkowski           1995      -16       18       22   
    T127 Bud Smith                2002      -16       10       22   
    129  Odalis Perez             1999      -18       17       21   
    T130 Ryan Dempster            1998      -19       11       21   
    T130 Eric Milton              1998      -19       32       22   
    T130 Rich Hunter              1996      -19       14       21   
    T133 Rick Vanden Hurk         2007      -20       17       22   
    T133 Jose Parra               1995      -20       12       22   
    135  Oliver Perez             2003      -21       24       21   
    136  Jamey Wright             1997      -22       26       22   
    T137 Brian Meadows            1998      -23       31       22   
    T137 Jeremy Bonderman         2003      -23       28       20   
    T139 Calvin Maduro            1997      -24       13       22   
    T139 Mike Johnson             1997      -24       16       21   
    T141 Edgar Gonzalez           2004      -25       10       21   
    T141 Chad Durbin              2000      -25       16       22   
    143  Kyle Davies              2006      -28       14       22   
    144  Zack Greinke             2005      -30       33       21   
    145  Ruben Quevedo            2000      -32       15       21   
    146  Javier Vazquez           1998      -43       32       21

  12. #71
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I disagree with you. Bailey can get away going FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, CB, FB, FB, FB, CB, CB, FB, FB, FB, FB in a minor league inning. He isn't going to get away with that in the majors. He isn't going to learn that he can't get away with that in the majors, when he is in the minors and its his pitch selection that I personally believe is his biggest hurdle in his development right now, followed by the development of his change up, followed by his control.
    And you know what happens in the majors when the best hitters in the world sit on his fastball (that he doesn't locate all that well either) because he can't locate the curve?

    He gets killed and never develops his curve because he doesn't throw it because he's never going to be ahead in the count.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  13. #72
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    And you know what happens in the majors when the best hitters in the world sit on his fastball (that he doesn't locate all that well either) because he can't locate the curve?
    He figures out that he can't throw his fastball 67% of the time and starts throwing more curves and change ups in order to set up his fastball, and in turn develops the change and curve.

  14. #73
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I disagree with you. Bailey can get away going FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, CB, FB, FB, FB, CB, CB, FB, FB, FB, FB in a minor league inning. He isn't going to get away with that in the majors. He isn't going to learn that he can't get away with that in the majors, when he is in the minors and its his pitch selection that I personally believe is his biggest hurdle in his development right now, followed by the development of his change up, followed by his control.
    Doug, the problem is that likely represents one batter as much as it does one inning.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #74
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    My ideal rotation would have Belisle and Affeldt in the 4th and 5th spot respectively
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


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  16. #75
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    Re: Reds Pitching -- Let's promote the prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He figures out that he can't throw his fastball 67% of the time and starts throwing more curves and change ups in order to set up his fastball, and in turn develops the change and curve.
    Or walks 5 batters per game, garnering a quick hook and not really developing at all.
    Suck it up cupcake.


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