Originally Posted by Kc61
it depends on how they do this spring, but I'd go Volquez and maybe Maloney or Cueto in bullpen, until they dominate and you can put them in the rotation. I'd cherry-pick who they face early, so that they'd succeed. I'd go Bailey at AAA for a few starts. If any major leaguer struggles, he goes down. If Bailey sizzles, he comes up and gets some bullpen time until he dominates.
Last edited by princeton; 01-31-2008 at 03:55 PM.
21- and 22-year-old pitchers in AA/AAA with track records and tons of potential fail in large numbers too. Beyond the fact that pitchers that age are disastrous (pick any year and look at the pathetic totals posted by that age group), here's the success rates of starting pitchers from BA's AA and AAA top 10s from five years ago:
AA - 5-15, two others (Aaron Heilman and Rafael Soriano) became successful relievers
AAA - 3-5, small group, which reflects how few of these "hot" prospects spend time in AAA. BTW, that 3 includes Brett Myers and Aaron Cook, so it's not like that's a stud factory. Cook and John Lackey, the other member of the triumverate, were also 23.
Cook is also double-counted. He's on the AA list with Jake Peavy, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden and Cliff Lee. So, five years later, if you took all the studs from AAA and AA, you'd be able to put together just about one full, healthy rotation. Bedard and Lee were also 23.
So if you take all the top pitchers from AAA and AA from five years ago and back out the guys who debuted in the majors at ages 23 or later, you get three kids who made it - Peavy, Myers and Harden. Tres, trois, drei.
I could repeat that exercise endlessly. It's like shooting fish in a barrel.
With that in mind, you can plan on a high failure rate from the following group (listed in no specific order):
Wade Davis
Johnny Cueto
Manny Parra
Gio Gonzalez
Clay Buchholz
Ian Kennedy
Jair Jurrjens
Alan Horne
Collin Balester
Nick Adenhart
Greg Reynolds
Luke Hochevar
Franklin Morales
Eric Hurley
Troy Patton
Homer Bailey
Matt Garza
Jeff Niemann
Yovani Gallardo
It's probably a safe bet that 10-12 of those 19 kids will have no significant major league future and the highest failure rate will come from the sub-23-year-old ranks.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I am working on a study right now, which is currently incomplete as its going to take a nice chunk of time that I haven't had lately.... but it basically revolves around the basis of BA Top 100 prospects that were pitchers, versus their rankings, versus their level of their ranking and how things play out when a guy is ranked in different tiers by their ranking and their level at the time of the ranking. I think it will be interesting to see how it all plays out once its done.
No pitcher is going to start in the majors completly ready. They are going to take their lumps pretty much no matter what. I don't see a problem with burning a "pre-arb" year if that year is used to improve while pitching to major league pitchers. If Belisle is going to do what he did last year then I see absolutly nothing positive about running him out there instead of Homer.
I don't think your ever fully ready to make the jump to the bigs. I think a guy like Homer is more talented thta 90-95% of the players in AAA and he really won't refine his pitching that much at that level. There are all different philosophies in dealing with prospects and who is to tell us mine is right or yours is right?
I couldn't disagree with this statement more.
What's entirely more likely if the Reds throw him to the wolves this year is that he'll never fully develop his secondary pitches and will never reach his potential.
School's out. What did you expect?
Yet evidently it's a hard concept for many to grasp.I could repeat that exercise endlessly. It's like shooting fish in a barrel.
I've got history on my side.
You don't.
I have no problem with Bailey finishing this year in the Reds rotation but he has no business IMO starting the year there. He should be in AAA to start the season proving that he can dominate there without over relying on his fastball, which he has not yet done.
School's out. What did you expect?
I disagree with you. Bailey can get away going FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, FB, CB, FB, FB, FB, CB, CB, FB, FB, FB, FB in a minor league inning. He isn't going to get away with that in the majors. He isn't going to learn that he can't get away with that in the majors, when he is in the minors and its his pitch selection that I personally believe is his biggest hurdle in his development right now, followed by the development of his change up, followed by his control.
What I appreciate about M2's post is that he named names. I really don't get all of the gray matter it took to get the list, but I do get the list. Thanks M2
Since the strike in 94 there have been 146 pitchers the age of 22 and under who had a season with 10 starts and 100 IP.
Here they are ranked by RSAA (Runs Saved Above Average) only 65 have positive RSAA's... might as well flip a coin
Code:RSAA YEAR RSAA GS AGE 1 Mark Prior 2003 42 30 22 2 Mark Buehrle 2001 32 32 22 3 Francisco Liriano 2006 31 16 22 4 Carlos Zambrano 2003 26 32 22 5 Oliver Perez 2004 25 30 22 T6 Scott Kazmir 2006 23 24 22 T6 Zach Duke 2005 23 14 22 8 Rick Ankiel 2000 22 30 20 T9 Freddy Garcia 1999 21 33 22 T9 Chad Billingsley 2007 21 20 22 T11 Matt Morris 1997 20 33 22 T11 Jose Rosado 1996 20 16 21 T11 Josh Johnson 2006 20 24 22 T11 Barry Zito 2000 20 14 22 T15 Anibal Sanchez 2006 18 17 22 T15 Joel Pineiro 2001 18 11 22 T17 Roy Halladay 1999 17 18 22 T17 Matt Cain 2007 17 32 22 19 Ismael Valdes 1995 16 27 21 T20 Felix Hernandez 2005 15 12 19 T20 Kerry Wood 1998 15 26 21 T22 Rich Harden 2004 14 31 22 T22 Jerome Williams 2003 14 21 21 T24 Jason Marquis 2001 13 16 22 T24 C.C. Sabathia 2003 13 30 22 T26 Dontrelle Willis 2003 12 27 21 T26 Jason Isringhausen 1995 12 14 22 T26 Jon Garland 2001 12 16 21 T29 Ismael Valdes 1996 11 33 22 T29 Scott Kazmir 2005 11 32 21 T31 Livan Hernandez 1997 10 17 22 T31 Felix Hernandez 2007 10 30 21 T31 Yovani Gallardo 2007 10 17 21 T34 Kyle Kendrick 2007 9 20 22 T34 Mark Prior 2002 9 19 21 T34 Ugueth Urbina 1996 9 17 22 T37 Jamey Wright 1996 8 15 21 T37 David Williams 2001 8 18 22 T37 Kelvim Escobar 1998 8 10 22 T37 Chad Billingsley 2006 8 16 21 T37 Cole Hamels 2006 8 23 22 T42 Gil Meche 2000 7 15 21 T42 Matt Cain 2006 7 31 21 T42 Jesse Litsch 2007 7 20 22 T42 Zack Greinke 2004 7 24 20 46 Mike Hampton 1995 6 24 22 T47 Scott Olsen 2006 5 31 22 T47 Bud Smith 2001 5 14 21 T47 Jose Paniagua 1996 5 11 22 T50 C.C. Sabathia 2002 4 33 21 T50 Jeremi Gonzalez 1997 4 23 22 T50 Carlos Zambrano 2002 4 16 21 T50 Brandon Lyon 2001 4 11 21 T54 Gil Meche 1999 3 15 20 T54 Jerome Williams 2004 3 22 22 T54 Brandon McCarthy 2005 3 10 21 T54 Jose Rosado 1997 3 33 22 T54 Oliver Perez 2002 3 15 20 T54 Tony Armas Jr. 2000 3 17 22 T54 C.C. Sabathia 2001 3 33 20 T61 Phil Hughes 2007 2 13 21 T61 Sidney Ponson 1999 2 32 22 T61 Miguel Asencio 2002 2 21 21 T61 Dontrelle Willis 2004 2 32 22 T65 Joe Kennedy 2001 1 20 22 T65 Yusmeiro Petit 2007 1 10 22 T65 Adam Eaton 2000 1 22 22 T65 Jaret Wright 1997 1 16 21 T69 Jason Vargas 2005 0 13 22 T69 Bill Pulsipher 1995 0 17 21 T69 Jon Garland 2002 0 33 22 T72 Jon Lester 2006 -1 15 22 T72 Josh Beckett 2002 -1 21 22 T72 Ruben Quevedo 2001 -1 10 22 T72 Carlos Hernandez 2002 -1 21 22 T76 Rich Harden 2003 -2 13 21 T76 Jeff D'Amico 1997 -2 23 21 T78 Jaret Wright 1998 -3 32 22 T78 Joaquin Benoit 2002 -3 13 22 T80 Jeff D'Amico 1996 -4 17 20 T80 Brett Myers 2002 -4 12 21 T80 Javier Vazquez 1999 -4 26 22 T80 Dennys Reyes 1998 -4 10 21 T84 Jake Peavy 2003 -5 32 22 T84 Felix Hernandez 2006 -5 31 20 T84 Nick Neugebauer 2002 -5 12 21 T84 Brad Penny 2000 -5 22 22 T84 Chris George 2001 -5 13 21 T84 Kyle Davies 2005 -5 14 21 T90 Ryan Dempster 1999 -6 25 22 T90 Carl Pavano 1998 -6 23 22 T90 Chris Carpenter 1997 -6 13 22 T90 Ben Sheets 2001 -6 25 22 T90 Jeremy Bonderman 2005 -6 29 22 T90 Rocky Coppinger 1996 -6 22 22 T96 Ervin Santana 2005 -7 23 22 T96 Seth Greisinger 1998 -7 21 22 T96 Sean Burnett 2004 -7 13 21 T96 Andrew Miller 2007 -7 13 22 T100 Dan Haren 2003 -8 14 22 T100 Brett Myers 2003 -8 32 22 T100 Jake Peavy 2002 -8 17 21 103 Jeremy Bonderman 2004 -9 32 21 T104 Jose Lima 1995 -10 15 22 T104 Jesse Foppert 2003 -10 21 22 T104 Brad Radke 1995 -10 28 22 T104 Adam Loewen 2006 -10 19 22 T104 Dave Borkowski 1999 -10 12 22 T104 Jon Garland 2000 -10 13 20 110 Jo-Jo Reyes 2007 -11 10 22 T111 John Stephens 2002 -12 11 22 T111 Amaury Telemaco 1996 -12 17 22 T111 John Danks 2007 -12 26 22 T111 Randy Wolf 1999 -12 21 22 T111 Jeff Weaver 1999 -12 29 22 T111 Kyle Lohse 2001 -12 16 22 T117 Mark Mulder 2000 -13 27 22 T117 Glendon Rusch 1997 -13 27 22 T117 Sidney Ponson 1998 -13 20 21 T120 Brandon Lyon 2002 -14 10 22 T120 Nate Cornejo 2001 -14 10 21 T120 Jeff Suppan 1997 -14 22 22 T123 Frankie Rodriguez 1995 -15 18 22 T123 Jimmy Gobble 2004 -15 24 22 T123 Bob Wolcott 1996 -15 28 22 T123 J.P. Howell 2005 -15 15 22 T127 C.J. Nitkowski 1995 -16 18 22 T127 Bud Smith 2002 -16 10 22 129 Odalis Perez 1999 -18 17 21 T130 Ryan Dempster 1998 -19 11 21 T130 Eric Milton 1998 -19 32 22 T130 Rich Hunter 1996 -19 14 21 T133 Rick Vanden Hurk 2007 -20 17 22 T133 Jose Parra 1995 -20 12 22 135 Oliver Perez 2003 -21 24 21 136 Jamey Wright 1997 -22 26 22 T137 Brian Meadows 1998 -23 31 22 T137 Jeremy Bonderman 2003 -23 28 20 T139 Calvin Maduro 1997 -24 13 22 T139 Mike Johnson 1997 -24 16 21 T141 Edgar Gonzalez 2004 -25 10 21 T141 Chad Durbin 2000 -25 16 22 143 Kyle Davies 2006 -28 14 22 144 Zack Greinke 2005 -30 33 21 145 Ruben Quevedo 2000 -32 15 21 146 Javier Vazquez 1998 -43 32 21
And you know what happens in the majors when the best hitters in the world sit on his fastball (that he doesn't locate all that well either) because he can't locate the curve?
He gets killed and never develops his curve because he doesn't throw it because he's never going to be ahead in the count.
School's out. What did you expect?
He figures out that he can't throw his fastball 67% of the time and starts throwing more curves and change ups in order to set up his fastball, and in turn develops the change and curve.
Doug, the problem is that likely represents one batter as much as it does one inning.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
My ideal rotation would have Belisle and Affeldt in the 4th and 5th spot respectively
Or walks 5 batters per game, garnering a quick hook and not really developing at all.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
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