Jeter has first crack at Rose's 4,256

[RedsFan75]

Didn't see it, apologies if I missed it.

Rosenthal
FoxSports
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7...0813162&ATT=49

In projecting Alex Rodriguez's historic impact, agent Scott Boras says that A-Rod has a chance not only to break Barry Bonds' home-run mark, but also Pete Rose's record of 4,256 hits.

True enough. But when it comes to Rose, Rodriguez's teammate with the Yankees, Derek Jeter stands an even better chance of surpassing the all-time hit king.

Bill James, in the 2008 Bill James Handbook, describes Jeter as being "on the cusp of emerging as a serious candidate for 4,000" hits, saying he stands a 91 percent chance of reaching 3,000 and 7 percent chance of reaching 4,000. A-Rod, by contrast, stands an 81 percent chance of reaching 3,000 and 6 percent chance of reaching 4,000, according to James.

[TOBTTReds]

Didn't see it, apologies if I missed it.

Rosenthal
FoxSports
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7...0813162&ATT=49

Why does anyone quote Boras?!! That man will say anything to make his clients look like they are worth more money. Boras should be Barry Zito's best friend after Boras hyped him up as one of the greatest lefties. The guy is an agent, he doesn't even work in baseball.

[fearofpopvol1]

nevermind

[Dom Heffner]

This is why I love sports media.

Chance of amassing 4,000 hits:
A-Rod: 6%
Jeter: 7%

Article claims that Jeter "stands an even better chance" at catching Rose. Talk about making a to-do over nothing.

My advice to Jeter is this: Good luck getting 200 hits a season when you're 38-40 years old.

Wish you well with that.

[Always Red]

I can't see it happening.

It'll take someone with the focus, attitude and desire of a guy like Tiger Woods (or, umm...Pete Rose) to hunt down this record.

ARod and Jeter are great players, but they both have made so much money (and good for them for doing so) that by the time they are 38-39 years old and their bodies are killing them every day, they're just going to find it easier and easier to not play.

Plus they don't have those greenies (anymore) that helped pep Pete up everyday! :

[RedsManRick]

Jeter has averaged 152 G, 615 AB, and 195 H per season in his 12 year career. To eclipse 4,000 he'd need to maintain that pace and level of performance until some point early during his age 42 season. That's no major injuries and a sustained .317 batting average without upping his walk rate.

There's a much better chance that Jeter doesn't get to 3,000 than passes 4,000 as far as I can tell. I wonder what James sees as the relative odds there.

[Sea Ray]

This is why I love sports media.

Chance of amassing 4,000 hits:
A-Rod: 6%
Jeter: 7%

Article claims that Jeter "stands an even better chance" at catching Rose. Talk about making a to-do over nothing.

My advice to Jeter is this: Good luck getting 200 hits a season when you're 38-40 years old.

Wish you well with that.

6 or 7% and the margin of error is...

[Strikes Out Looking]

My projections indicate in the year 2032, Jay Bruce will eclipse that record playing in the Castellini Fruit Yards, which will be situated where Paul Brown Stadium once stood before Mike Brown took the Bengals to Havana in 2016.

[oneupper]

There's a much better chance that Jeter doesn't get to 3,000 than passes 4,000 as far as I can tell. I wonder what James sees as the relative odds there.

Surprised you missed that. If his chances of getting to 3000 are at 91%, NOT getting there would be 9%. Which is more than the 7% odds of making 4000. According to to James, that is.

[SunDeck]

What if Jeter becomes player/manager and puts himself at 1B for a year?

What are the odds then, Bill James?

[Ltlabner]

So a 7% chance is a "serrious contender" ?

Riiiiiiiggght.

[Always Red]

So a 7% chance is a "serious contender" ?

Only if you wear navy blue pinstripes!

[Chip R]

So a 7% chance is a "serrious contender" ?

Riiiiiiiggght.

Compared to most others it is.

[Cyclone792]

What if Jeter becomes player/manager and puts himself at 1B for a year?

What are the odds then, Bill James?

Or hangs on about five years beyond the point when he was useful.

If someone is going to break Rose's record, then they'll either have to be the next Ty Cobb or they'll have to hang on to a languishing career where they're a massive liability during the last several years of their career.

[Chip R]

Or hangs on about five years beyond the point when he was useful.

If someone is going to break Rose's record, then they'll either have to be the next Ty Cobb or they'll have to hang on to a languishing career where they're a massive liability during the last several years of their career.

It's going to take a perfect storm of circumstances for that to happen. That player is going to need to go to a team where they are so beloved that the fans aren't really going to care that he's hanging on. He's also going to have to be able to shake off any criticism he does get about hanging on for the record. He's going to need a manager who's willing to play him on a more than semi-regular basis. Obviously he needs to stay healthy. And he's going to have to go to a team who needs his star power.

I don't think Jeter is going be that guy. I know he's beloved in NYC but I think the fans and media would turn on him in a hurry if it appeared he was just hanging on for a record and not contributing. I think when he retires, he may not be able to write his own ticket but he should have many opportunities - especially in the media. I think he'll want to retire a Yankee and would retire before anything jeopardized that.