John Fay predicts 25-man

[FreelFanatic]

Interesting, but not too far from the consensus, I don't think.

Projecting the 25-man

I'm sitting in the office today working on our spring training preview package. One of the things I do annually is project the 25-man roster. I went 20-for-25 in '06. The Arroyo-Pena trade cost me two spots.

Last year, I went 22-for-25. I would have gone 24-for-25 if Eric Milton and Bill Bray hadn't been on the DL. Anyway, enough with my excuses, here's this year's projection:

Starting eight
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
CF Jay Bruce
LF Adam Dunn
C David Ross


Bench:
OF/INF Jeff Keppinger
OF/INF Ryan Freel
OF Norris Hopper
C Javier Valentin
1B Scott Hatteberg

Rotation:
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Jeremy Affeldt
Homer Bailey


Bullpen:
Francisco Cordero
David Weathers
Jared Burton
Bill Bray
Mike Stanton
Todd Coffey
Edinson Volquez

The bold prediction is Bruce making it. I'm just guessing on Volquez-Bailey. I think if Bailey gets the nod as far as the rotation, Volquez will make it was a reliever because his arm is that good. I don't think Coffey's spot is secure. And I'm also guessing that Juan Castro starts the year on the DL.

What do you think?

[Lockdwn11]

Switch Jeremy Affeldt and Edinson Volquez and I would take it.

[muethibp]

I don't mind going to war with that team, except for the small detail that the rotation isn't nearly good enough to win.

[Bip Roberts]

I wish my job was as simple as his.

[Lockdwn11]

The thing is we don't know how good this rotation is if Matt Belisle improves (witch he will) ,Homer & Volquez start to realize thier potental (witch they should) and Aaron Harang & Bronson Arroyo do what they do this rotation could be very good.One of if not the best rotation in the central.

[kbrake]

The Cubs rotation is far ahead of ours make no mistake. As for Fay's predictions I would say they look pretty accurate. Not sure about the back end of the rotation going exactly the way he has it (I'm thinking switch Volquez and Affeldt) but its close enough.

[Lockdwn11]

I agree the Cubs rotation is better then ours today but lets wait until July and see

[Nasty_Boy]

This may be a pipe dream but I hope that Adam Rosales has a spring to make things tough on the Reds. I would love to see him make the team and Freel get moved for whatever they can get. I'm also keeping my fingers crossed (like the rest of Reds nation) that the young guys, especially pitchers are all they're cracked up to be. I haven't been this excited for a season in a very long time and most of the reason is the amount of young talent... let's just hope they all realize their potential.

[scuba17]

I agree the Cubs rotation is better then ours today but lets wait until July and see

If the Cubs rotation is better now it is likely to stay that way in July. Does that not mean the Reds couldn't have a decent one? Of course not.

If you assume the Reds rotation will improve throughout the year you have to assume the same for the Cubs.

If you could combine the two rotations the Cubs would have three of the top four. I'd obviously take Harang, but after that I would have to go with Zambrano, Hill, and Lilly before anyone else form the reds projected rotation.

[Lockdwn11]

If the Cubs rotation is better now it is likely to stay that way in July. Does that not mean the Reds couldn't have a decent one? Of course not.

If you assume the Reds rotation will improve throughout the year you have to assume the same for the Cubs.

If you could combine the two rotations the Cubs would have three of the top four. I'd obviously take Harang, but after that I would have to go with Zambrano, Hill, and Lilly before anyone else form the reds projected rotation.

I disagree, I think the cubs rotation is a finished product as far as improvement goes save one Rich Hill. What I mean by that is Zambrano and Lilly are as good as they are going to get infact I think Lilly will take a step back this year and I would take Arroyo over him .

The Red rotation is younger with alot more upside and room to improve this year .I may be wrong but that is just my opinion.I'm not saying the Reds will have a better rotation come July but I am saying they COULD be just as good.

[jmac]

The problem with this team in my eyes is the bench.
If a lefty starts and say Baker starts Hopper/Freel and Kepp at first as platoon which Krivs mentioned, there is no RH pop coming off bench.
Even if the above mentioned arent in the starting lineup, they still dont qualify as pop.
Otherwise, I like alot of the projections.

[scuba17]

I disagree, I think the cubs rotation is a finished product as far as improvement goes save one Rich Hill. What I mean by that is Zambrano and Lilly are as good as they are going to get infact I think Lilly will take a step back this year and I would take Arroyo over him .

The Red rotation is younger with alot more upside and room to improve this year .I may be wrong but that is just my opinion.I'm not saying the Reds will have a better rotation come July but I am saying they COULD be just as good.

The Reds and Cubs rotation is about the same average age overall. That is considering Affeldt and Bailey who aren't sure fire candidates at this point.

Harang 29
Arroyo 30
Belisle 27
Affeldt 28
Bailey 22

Zambrano 26
Lilly 32
Hill 27
Marshall 25
Marquis 29

Again, if the Reds can improve over the course of the year so can the Cubs. There is plenty of young talent in both rotations. Also, Wrigley over the recent years has played much more like a pitcher's park, so that is another adavantage in Chicago's favor.

The Cubs were #2 in the NL in team pitching last year, the Reds were #15. That is a lot of ground to make up in just one year.

[Bip Roberts]

The Reds and Cubs rotation is about the same average age overall. That is considering Affeldt and Bailey who aren't sure fire candidates at this point.

Harang 29
Arroyo 30
Belisle 27
Affeldt 28
Bailey 22

Zambrano 26
Lilly 32
Hill 27
Marshall 25
Marquis 29

Again, if the Reds can improve over the course of the year so can the Cubs. There is plenty of young talent in both rotations. Also, Wrigley over the recent years has played much more like a pitcher's park, so that is another adavantage in Chicago's favor.

The Cubs were #2 in the NL in team pitching last year, the Reds were #15. That is a lot of ground to make up in just one year.

Where is Jon Leiber

[Chris Sabowned]

John Leiber should be in that rotation somewhere.


The thing that bothers me about our roster is that we have very little pop off of our bench. We have some great contact hitters but Javie is our only power hitter, and he's not even a big homerun threat. I think we need to get one more in here somehow.

[Bip Roberts]

John Leiber should be in that rotation somewhere.


The thing that bothers me about our roster is that we have very little pop off of our bench. We have some great contact hitters but Javie is our only power hitter, and he's not even a big homerun threat. I think we need to get one more in here somehow.

Id agree if our line up wasnt already full of the power hitters. Sure one off the bench would be nice but I dont know how often you really need that homer when a double or a single wouldnt work.