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Thread: Long Term Goals

  1. #31
    Member Nasty_Boy's Avatar
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    I agree that anything over 4 years is risky. But Dunn is only 28 and right in the middle of his prime years. I think its imperative that the Reds lock him up for the next 3 seasons at a minimum.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    Quote Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy View Post
    I agree that anything over 4 years is risky. But Dunn is only 28 and right in the middle of his prime years. I think its imperative that the Reds lock him up for the next 3 seasons at a minimum.
    Yep, with Dunn he needs to hit the ball a mile because if his power numbers start to drop he has little value anywhere else. A switch to 1st base needs to happen for him mostly but hes too unwilling to give it a real try and work hard at it.

    Once Dunns knees start to wear out from his big frame pounding on them hes going to fall quickly.

  4. #33
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    If Dunn's body starts to go, which I think will happen in his mid 30's, he'll still have value as a DH. If Frank Thomas can still find a job, I would think that Dunn would be very comparable to the Big Hurt at his age.

  5. #34
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    Quote Originally Posted by Bip Roberts View Post
    Yep, with Dunn he needs to hit the ball a mile because if his power numbers start to drop he has little value anywhere else. A switch to 1st base needs to happen for him mostly but hes too unwilling to give it a real try and work hard at it.

    Once Dunns knees start to wear out from his big frame pounding on them hes going to fall quickly.
    That's a good point. He's a big guy. Knees aren't built to carry that much weight, especially during a 162 game season. We can only hope it comes if/after he goes somewhere else.
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
    -LTlabner

  6. #35
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    Quote Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy View Post
    If Dunn's body starts to go, which I think will happen in his mid 30's, he'll still have value as a DH. If Frank Thomas can still find a job, I would think that Dunn would be very comparable to the Big Hurt at his age.
    Adam Dunn (Age 27) Career Season Average
    40 HR's 95 RBI's .248/.381/.519

    Frank Thomas (Age 38) 2006
    39 HR's 114 RBI's .270/.381/.545

    I'm sorry but there is no comparison. When Dunn's body starts to give out, it's going to get ugly.

  7. #36
    The Future GoReds33's Avatar
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    Quote Originally Posted by Handofdeath View Post
    Adam Dunn (Age 27) Career Season Average
    40 HR's 95 RBI's .248/.381/.519

    Frank Thomas (Age 38) 2006
    39 HR's 114 RBI's .270/.381/.545

    I'm sorry but there is no comparison. When Dunn's body starts to give out, it's going to get ugly.
    I guess I forgot how good last year was for Thomas...
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
    -LTlabner

  8. #37
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    They really dont have the same career path.

  9. #38
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    You guys are pretty awesome!

    Look at Frank's surrounding seasons. Once Frank turned 32 in 2000 (the age Dunn would be at the end of a 4 yr deal) he has had 2 maybe 3 above average seasons. Why? Due to injury... It's great that Frank was so good in 2006, but he regressed a little last season. And I wasn't comparing them as players, I was comparing their body types.

    My point was that once Dunn gets into his mid 30's he's likely to start having more injuries and therefore his production would decline. Couldn't Dunn be healthy at 37-38 and put up a big season? Of course he could... and why do you guys think Dunn's knees will give out? Yes he's big, but he has a huge frame that is meant to carry more weight. It's not set in stone that he will have knee problems.

  10. #39
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    I dont know if his knees or back or body will start to wear down but big guys tend to break down and you would be silly not to worry about it.

    Id rather miss out on a few years of a good player than be stuck with multiple years of a drain on the payroll.

  11. #40
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    If Dunn puts up similar numbers to what he did last year, I'd give him a four year deal. I'm just not sold on the fact he can put up .380 OBP ever year. If he can do that his year and still slug 40 HR, his offensive production majorly overcompensates for his lack of defensive ability.

  12. #41
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    If Dunn puts up similar numbers to what he did last year, I'd give him a four year deal. I'm just not sold on the fact he can put up .380 OBP ever year. If he can do that his year and still slug 40 HR, his offensive production majorly overcompensates for his lack of defensive ability.
    I disagree with that last sentence. If you want to make someone the centerpiece of your franchise, and for the money you would be paying Dunn you would be, it is a bad idea IMO to do that for a 275 lb one dimensional player.

  13. #42
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    maybe if he starts putting up Ortiz numbers, then that would make since

  14. #43
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    Quote Originally Posted by Stephenk29 View Post
    maybe if he starts putting up Ortiz numbers, then that would make since
    The best thing for Dunn would be a move to the AL. I think in a DH role, he could put up similar numbers to Ortiz.
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
    -LTlabner

  15. #44
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    Quote Originally Posted by Handofdeath View Post
    I disagree with that last sentence. If you want to make someone the centerpiece of your franchise, and for the money you would be paying Dunn you would be, it is a bad idea IMO to do that for a 275 lb one dimensional player.
    Please define one dimensional, I would love to hear this.

  16. #45
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    Re: Long Term Goals

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds33 View Post
    The best thing for Dunn would be a move to the AL. I think in a DH role, he could put up similar numbers to Ortiz.
    Oh I doubt that very much. Dunn could put up good numbers as a DH though.


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