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Thread: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

  1. #166
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Overpay for Blanton?

    There isn't a pitcher in MLB that probably isn't overpaid due to the market and demand for even average pitching. Especially one that has, to a degree, established himself.

    I just find it kind of hilarious that we rail on WK for not going out and getting an "established" pitcher - not that I'm saying I want him to pull a "Milton" - but in the same breath we say "but don't overpay for him."

    If he is established, then he's probably going to cost you. It's probably the main reason we lost out on Haren. We didn't want to sacrifice the cost it would have taken to get him (which I heard was Cueto).

    Now I'm not advocating that we need to make those sacrifices in every instance. It depends on the situation and what the demand (cost) is obviously. There are times you need to say No.

    It's just this mindset on here that every time a player may be available, and it's to fill a dire need on this team, the first thing out of everyone's mouth is "don't overpay for him."

    What standard or gauge is used to determine if a player was overpaid for? It seems to me it is all pretty subjective.
    The Reds over paid for Cordero. I applaud that. The Reds overpaid for Jr. Despite what happened with the injuries, I applaud that too.

    Overpaying for a weak SP that doesn't K people, is over reliant on defense AND park factors is nuts. Blanton doesn't fit a Reds need.
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  3. #167
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I would make that trade. I think Blanton would be 4.5 or better for the Reds. Just seems like a bulldog type pitcher, even without all the strikeouts. Even if he wound up at, say, 4.30 pitching 200 plus innings, that's a huge help in this rotation.
    Yeah, its huge help for the rotation, but is it worth what its going to cost versus what you will likely get out of who he would replace in the rotation?

    Votto hit very well in his September call up. But his AAA numbers lead me to be cautious in my praise. He had an .859 OPS at AAA, which is very good but not dominant. And only a .679 OPS against lefties, again vs. AAA pitching. So you could be looking at a very good platoon hitter.
    His April hurt his overall numbers big time. He got corrective contacts early in May. Lets also note that he played in a pitchers league and in a park that suppressed home runs. He isn't going to hit lefties that well, I don't expect him to. I still think he can be a .290-.310 hitter in GABP with 80 points worth of OB over his average and slug .500 easily over 450 at bats.

    Also, assuming Dunn and Bruce will be Reds for several years, I'd rather see first base manned by a power hitting righty bat.
    Assuming Dunn is here for several years is an awful big assumption at this point if you ask me. But either way, we don't have a power hitting righty bat in the system, and there aren't any on the market right now either. It doesn't appear to be much of an option at this point.

    So I'd agree to trade, say, Votto, Keppinger, and Travis Wood for Blanton. Substitute Freel for Keppinger if the A's can handle the salary.
    I think that is a whole lot more than what a guy like Blanton is worth. Blanton posted a 106 ERA+ last year. Translate that to GABP and its a 4.40 ERA. That doesn't even translate a bad defense and a very likely increase in HRs he would take from a switch to GABP. Maybe I am thinking to much about it, but Blanton is the exact opposite type of pitcher I would want coming to Cincinnati to pitch in our ballpark.

  4. #168
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Wayne Krivsky should be fired if he even considers dealing Votto + Bailey/Cueto for Blanton. I wouldn't include any of the fab five of Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, or Votto for Blanton. He's a decent pitcher pitching half his games in a huge park. I feel pretty confident in saying I think Bailey could put up similar numbers to Blanton this year if Blanton pitched half his games in the GAB.

    Maloney + Stubbs + Valaika for Blanton? Yeah I do jump all over that, but not the fab five.

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    Member Jay Bruce's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Wayne Krivsky should be fired if he even considers dealing Votto + Bailey/Cueto for Blanton. I wouldn't include any of the fab five of Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, or Votto for Blanton. He's a decent pitcher pitching half his games in a huge park. I feel pretty confident in saying I think Bailey could put up similar numbers to Blanton this year if Blanton pitched half his games in the GAB.

    Maloney + Stubbs + Valaika for Blanton? Yeah I do jump all over that, but not the fab five.
    To be fair to Blanton, he did have a 4.13 xFIP last year, so he was legitimately good. We could use a Blanton, as he could be a true #3 for the Reds for the next three years. That said, he has no upside above that, and I would not give up either Bailey or Cueto for him. I'd accept a deal centered around Joey Votto, but that's as far as I would go.

  6. #170
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Bruce View Post
    To be fair to Blanton, he did have a 4.13 xFIP last year, so he was legitimately good. We could use a Blanton, as he could be a true #3 for the Reds for the next three years. That said, he has no upside above that, and I would not give up either Bailey or Cueto for him. I'd accept a deal centered around Joey Votto, but that's as far as I would go.
    His xFIP is centered around the idea that he has a low HR rate. Switching from OAK (.786 HR factor) to CIN (1.351 HR factor) is going to take that xFIP and throw it way up.

  7. #171
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    I'm willing to bet that the Reds and A's come to an agreement before players report next Thursday to Sarasota. I think Cueto and one or two more prospects goes to Oakland for Blanton. I wouldn't do a Votto and Cueto deal unless we get more in return and that would mean perhaps Dunn moves to 1st. We could then see an outfield of Bruce, Griffey, Hopper/Freel/Dickerson. Solves the lead-off spot and definitely gives us one of the best rotations in the central.

  8. #172
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Krivsky balked at dealing Cueto for Haren but he'll give him up for Blanton???

    That wouldn't be very swift of him.

  9. #173
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    His xFIP is centered around the idea that he has a low HR rate. Switching from OAK (.786 HR factor) to CIN (1.351 HR factor) is going to take that xFIP and throw it way up.
    Actually his xFIP dings him, perhaps unfairly, for his lower than average HR/FB rate (xFIP basically normalizes FIP for HR/FB rate). He's a guy who seems to be an outlier in that regard. If his HR/FB rate goes above league average in GABP, xFIP will actually give him a "tax cut".
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Beware of Fake Posts Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Actually his xFIP dings him, perhaps unfairly, for his lower than average HR/FB rate (xFIP basically normalizes FIP for HR/FB rate). He's a guy who seems to be an outlier in that regard. If his HR/FB rate goes above league average in GABP, xFIP will actually give him a "tax cut".
    Is his FIP so low (despite his weak K rate) because of his anemic walk rate?

  11. #175
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Actually his xFIP dings him, perhaps unfairly, for his lower than average HR/FB rate (xFIP basically normalizes FIP for HR/FB rate). He's a guy who seems to be an outlier in that regard. If his HR/FB rate goes above league average in GABP, xFIP will actually give him a "tax cut".
    Sure....

    but I think he would actually allow more HR than you would be led to believe based on park factors if he actually made the switch.

  12. #176
    he/him *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Can't we get close to the same results from FA Kyle Lohse without having to give up any young talent?

    I wouldn't give up either Votto or Bailey/Cueto for Blanton, but I wouldn't crucify Krivsky if he got Blanton for a combination of Maloney/Stubbs/Wood/other B/C prospects, as I don't expect any of those players to contribute this season...

  13. #177
    Member Jay Bruce's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    His xFIP is centered around the idea that he has a low HR rate. Switching from OAK (.786 HR factor) to CIN (1.351 HR factor) is going to take that xFIP and throw it way up.
    The xFIP stat normalizes his home run rate, so the increase in ERA going to GABP would not be nearly as bad as you suggest. In addition, when considering the inferior competition of the NL, as well as the lack of a DH, and Blanton should be good for a 4.20 ERA in Cincinnati. Like I said, he's not a great pitcher, but he's not a bad target if he can be had for a package not including Bailey or Cueto.

  14. #178
    he/him *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Bruce View Post
    The xFIP stat normalizes his home run rate, so the increase in ERA going to GABP would not be nearly as bad as you suggest. In addition, when considering the inferior competition of the NL, as well as the lack of a DH, and Blanton should be good for a 4.20 ERA in Cincinnati. Like I said, he's not a great pitcher, but he's not a bad target if he can be had for a package not including Bailey or Cueto.
    PECTOA says a 4.40 ERA this year with Oakland. It would go down due to the league change, but go back up again due to park effects and much, much worse defense...

  15. #179
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    Is his FIP so low (despite his weak K rate) because of his anemic walk rate?
    His low walks and low HRs.

    Here's the general formula:

    FIP=3.2 + ((13*HR + 3*(BB-IBB+HBP) - 2*K)/IP)

    xFIP basically substitutes the # of homers he would theoretically allow given the league average HR/FB rate and the number of FB's he allowed for his actual homerun total.

    While in Oakland, he's been a ground ball pitcher that also has allowed fewer than normal homers on the flyballs he's given up. Couple that to his insanely low BB/9 rate in '07 and his FIP shrinks despite an apparent inability to miss bats.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #180
    he/him *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    I was wondering what y'all constitute as a groundball pitcher?

    Blanton GB%
    2005-45.7%
    2006-43.1%
    2007-46.9%
    Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 02-07-2008 at 11:05 PM.


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