Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Yeah, its huge help for the rotation, but is it worth what its going to cost versus what you will likely get out of who he would replace in the rotation?
His April hurt his overall numbers big time. He got corrective contacts early in May. Lets also note that he played in a pitchers league and in a park that suppressed home runs. He isn't going to hit lefties that well, I don't expect him to. I still think he can be a .290-.310 hitter in GABP with 80 points worth of OB over his average and slug .500 easily over 450 at bats.Votto hit very well in his September call up. But his AAA numbers lead me to be cautious in my praise. He had an .859 OPS at AAA, which is very good but not dominant. And only a .679 OPS against lefties, again vs. AAA pitching. So you could be looking at a very good platoon hitter.
Assuming Dunn is here for several years is an awful big assumption at this point if you ask me. But either way, we don't have a power hitting righty bat in the system, and there aren't any on the market right now either. It doesn't appear to be much of an option at this point.Also, assuming Dunn and Bruce will be Reds for several years, I'd rather see first base manned by a power hitting righty bat.
I think that is a whole lot more than what a guy like Blanton is worth. Blanton posted a 106 ERA+ last year. Translate that to GABP and its a 4.40 ERA. That doesn't even translate a bad defense and a very likely increase in HRs he would take from a switch to GABP. Maybe I am thinking to much about it, but Blanton is the exact opposite type of pitcher I would want coming to Cincinnati to pitch in our ballpark.So I'd agree to trade, say, Votto, Keppinger, and Travis Wood for Blanton. Substitute Freel for Keppinger if the A's can handle the salary.
Wayne Krivsky should be fired if he even considers dealing Votto + Bailey/Cueto for Blanton. I wouldn't include any of the fab five of Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, or Votto for Blanton. He's a decent pitcher pitching half his games in a huge park. I feel pretty confident in saying I think Bailey could put up similar numbers to Blanton this year if Blanton pitched half his games in the GAB.
Maloney + Stubbs + Valaika for Blanton? Yeah I do jump all over that, but not the fab five.
To be fair to Blanton, he did have a 4.13 xFIP last year, so he was legitimately good. We could use a Blanton, as he could be a true #3 for the Reds for the next three years. That said, he has no upside above that, and I would not give up either Bailey or Cueto for him. I'd accept a deal centered around Joey Votto, but that's as far as I would go.
I'm willing to bet that the Reds and A's come to an agreement before players report next Thursday to Sarasota. I think Cueto and one or two more prospects goes to Oakland for Blanton. I wouldn't do a Votto and Cueto deal unless we get more in return and that would mean perhaps Dunn moves to 1st. We could then see an outfield of Bruce, Griffey, Hopper/Freel/Dickerson. Solves the lead-off spot and definitely gives us one of the best rotations in the central.
Krivsky balked at dealing Cueto for Haren but he'll give him up for Blanton???
That wouldn't be very swift of him.
Actually his xFIP dings him, perhaps unfairly, for his lower than average HR/FB rate (xFIP basically normalizes FIP for HR/FB rate). He's a guy who seems to be an outlier in that regard. If his HR/FB rate goes above league average in GABP, xFIP will actually give him a "tax cut".
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Can't we get close to the same results from FA Kyle Lohse without having to give up any young talent?
I wouldn't give up either Votto or Bailey/Cueto for Blanton, but I wouldn't crucify Krivsky if he got Blanton for a combination of Maloney/Stubbs/Wood/other B/C prospects, as I don't expect any of those players to contribute this season...
The xFIP stat normalizes his home run rate, so the increase in ERA going to GABP would not be nearly as bad as you suggest. In addition, when considering the inferior competition of the NL, as well as the lack of a DH, and Blanton should be good for a 4.20 ERA in Cincinnati. Like I said, he's not a great pitcher, but he's not a bad target if he can be had for a package not including Bailey or Cueto.
His low walks and low HRs.
Here's the general formula:
FIP=3.2 + ((13*HR + 3*(BB-IBB+HBP) - 2*K)/IP)
xFIP basically substitutes the # of homers he would theoretically allow given the league average HR/FB rate and the number of FB's he allowed for his actual homerun total.
While in Oakland, he's been a ground ball pitcher that also has allowed fewer than normal homers on the flyballs he's given up. Couple that to his insanely low BB/9 rate in '07 and his FIP shrinks despite an apparent inability to miss bats.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I was wondering what y'all constitute as a groundball pitcher?
Blanton GB%
2005-45.7%
2006-43.1%
2007-46.9%
Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 02-07-2008 at 11:05 PM.
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