Ok, so Oakland is a known pitcher's park, yet there is a greath negative disparity in road splits but there are "mammoth parks in the AL West." I'm curious as to why that doesn't tell you "don't make much of home/road splits?"Originally Posted by TRF
Yep. While I wouldn't support xFIP as being the gold standard among defense-independent metrics, I've been warming a bit more to it recently because of the attempt to equalize HR/FB rates.
That being said, I'm still trying to figure out why some folks are attempting to position that Blanton's HR rates would explode should he leave Oaktown and move to the GAB.
Here are Blanton's 3-year HR/9 splits with Oakland (2005-2007):
Home: 0.77 HR/9 IP
Away: 0.84 HR/9 IP
And that's with the DH in play. The difference for Home vs. Road splits over 200 IP is less than two Home Runs. It's not like Blanton somehow got clobbered for longballs galore outside of McAfee.
It is true that Blanton's HR per Fly Ball tendencies were lower than expected over the previous two seasons, of course. Yet, would that somehow change in a dramatic fashion due to the GAB? Let's take a look at the Reds' HR/FB percentages (> 125 IP):
2007
Harang: 10.6%
Arroyo: 10.7%
Belisle: 12.8%
Lohse: 9.3%
2006:
Harang: 11.7%
Arroyo: 11.5%
Milton: 11.9%
What we're seeing there are rates that are generally sitting around the norm. In fact, the amalgam of those pitchers each season are within 1% of the norm, both above and below. Now let's assume that Blanton's HR/FB rates move to the norm and that he plays in the GAB. Obviously, it's a bit more complex than just using park factors to adjust. Oh, and I do include Infield Flies as Fly Balls. I really don't see any reason not to. They're balls hit in the air, but just less far. Here are the last couple of seasons for GB vs. FB rates:
2007:
Harang: 40.30% GB/41.80% FB
Arroyo: 35.30% GB/43.80% FB
Belisle: 41.80% GB/36.20% FB
Lohse: 35.50% GB/ 42.90% FB
Blanton: 46.90% GB/32.50% FB
2006:
Harang: 38.20% GB/39.60% FB
Arroyo: 38.50% GB/40.60% FB
Milton: 30.80% GB/39.60% FB
Blanton: 43.10% GB/37.10% FB
I guess I can see where folks might intuitively think that the GAB might dramatically impact Blanton's HR rate. Of course, that's more a commentary on the ballpark than it is about the quality of the pitcher we're discussing. But in the end, even a regression (or ascension) to the mean for Blanton's HR per FB rate might mean less for a pitcher of Blanton's ilk than it would be for the Reds' pitchers noted if they had put up their rates in a HR-suppressing park.
K rate is certainly important, but of the pitchers noted above we need to understand that the difference between Arroyo's 6.03 K/9 splits over the last three years and Blanton's K/9 (5.22) over 200 Innings is about 18 balls either in or out of play. If Blanton's Fly Ball rate in 2008 is near his 2006-2007 average, we're looking at about six more Fly Balls and, equalizing for a MLB average HR/FB rate, we've got exactly one additional Home Run.
Is it possible that we'd see more than one additional HR versus 2007 for Blanton in the GAB? Sure, because the game is a bit random. But for this particular pitcher, the defense backing him is likely more important than just a shift to a higher-HR ballpark.
While defense is a major consideration here, I'd certainly welcome a pitcher who profiles like Blanton. 27 years old. Has a history of low BB and low HR rates and both have improved in unison over the past couple of seasons. He certainly hasn't matched his minor league K rates thusfar, but he throws a "heavy" ball and has done so not only in his home park.
Do I trade Votto for someone who projects 200 MLB-average Innings over the next three years? Absolutely. Do I trade Votto, a B prospect, and a C prospect or two for that? Again, absolutely.
The goal here isn't to hold onto as many cool prospects as possible. The goal is to win. And considering how many "top" prospects the Reds have near the MLB level, they have a perfect opportunity to cash in while also staggering MLB service time to produce a larger potential window.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
I'd much prefer to send the A's Bailey than Votto. Griffey and Dunn are almost certainly goners after next season.
And this team has no other power sources (Bruce likely won't provide the kind of power this team will need for a couple of seasons).
As others have mentioned, after next year, the offense looks incredibly lean. I don't think folks appreciate how much this team is going to miss Dunn.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Thank you Steel!!!!
Exactly FCB!!!!!!!
In the end, I still don't want to overpay with talent for someone like Blanton. I would rather overpay money for someone. You can make money back by being creative.... its tough to just create talent that you overpaid with.
I agree, though at this stage, I don't think buying a starter is really an option. At least not a starter as good as Blanton.
I'd rather the Reds avoid getting into a bidding war over Blanton; save their prospects and bag a bigger fish at the deadline or next offseason. The Reds appear to be out of the picture for 08 anyway.
If Beane will take Bailey for Blanton, fine, but there's no need at all to overpay for a guy like Blanton. None whatsoever. He will barely push the Reds where they need to go to truly compete.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Agreed. You can get more money in a lot of different ways. But once you trade talent, you can't buy it back. I think he represents a 3 win bump at the very best in 2008, and probably less than that over time as he becomes more costly and the talent we'd trade matures. I'd rather spend 10M on Kyle Lohse than deal one of the big 4 in a Blanton trade.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Buying a starter isn't too likely, but if Bailey for Blanton isn't overpaying then I don't want to know what overpaying is. I know you don't like Bailey, but if Bailey is only worth barely above league average I will place all of my bets on Bailey.
Bailey still has ACE potential. Can't understand why people are so willing to trade that away...
Potential isn't the same as performance.
Bailey may turn into a great pitcher but he's not yet and the chances of him throwing 600 innings of better than league average ball over the next three year aren't very good.
School's out. What did you expect?
Move to NY and build a new hotel...er....a.....stadium.
Homer might throw 40 less innings than Blanton next season, but I'll bet his ERA will be just as good as Blanton's would be in GABP.
www.mlbtraderumors.com
9:14pm: Fay suggests the A's would want Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, and a third player for Blanton.
http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs...ton-update.asp
No, no, 100 times no.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
LMAO, so Beane wants a better return for Blanton than he got for Haren???? Put down the pipe, Billy.
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
