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Thread: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

  1. #556
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    But didn't the NL central just get a little better offensively? The Astros certainly got a little better with Tjada and a bounceback year from Berkman. In May, the Brewers will be better. The Cubs will have a whole season of Derek Lee and look to be better. I see the NL scoring a bit better this year over last when two of the NL central teams (Houston and Pittsburgh) were kind of awful.

    And sometimes If a player is consistently recording a high BABIP, as Blanton has on the road, doesn't that mean something?
    The average runs/game of Blanton's opponents in 2007 - weighted for # of starts against each opponent - was 4.94 runs. The last time the NL as a league hit that mark was in 2000. Since then they've been plowing along anywhere from 4.45-4.75 runs per game. Last year it was 4.71 runs per game, and as I've already pointed out, 4.60 runs per game for Reds NL Central opponents.

    Yes, Blanton would be pitching in more hitter friendly parks in the NL as a Red. But he'd also be pitching in a more pitcher friendly league environment in the NL. The shift into a pitcher friendly league environment would swallow up the park effect shift. It's a pretty nice transition for a pitcher moving from the AL to the NL when suddenly 7-8 percent of his opposing PAs will be other team's pitchers.

    Provided Blanton is healthy, all signs point to a 4ish ERA as a Red, unless drastic league run scoring changes occur (in which case all pitcher's ERAs shoot up and Blanton's performance is very similar relative to his peers).

    That isn't going to win the Cy Young, but at 200+ innings that's a helluva weapon to have.
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  3. #557
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    And I'm not the only one who thinks he will have a great career. Lots of scouts and experts from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus still love his game and think he will be a great pitcher in the near future.

    What has he done to show he's good? Well, allowing only 252 hits and 18 homeruns in 317.2 career minor league innings while striking out 347 batters (9.85 K/9) and is pretty darn impressive to me. Not to mention the fact that he has been younger than his competition at each level. Sometimes I feel embarrassed to be a Reds fan - not because of the level of play the last seven years - but by the fans. Giving up on a 21-year old kid after nine major league starts. Amazing.
    If you liked Homer before last year, then you should like him a little more this year simply because he logged another 120 IP without his arm falling off.

    That said, he's more likely to be a Volquez at 25 (this will be the year he turns it on!) than he'll be a Beckett. That's not a slam on Homer or his ceiling. That's just history talking coupled with the fact that Homer has yet to scream F you history.

    I'm not even suggesting it should be an easy decision to trade Homer. IMO, it shouldn't. However, he shouldn't be untouchable either because there is tremendous risk associated with the next step he needs to make.

    If someone offered a Kemp or a Rios for him, I'd jump at the deal.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Blanton's away numbers are skewed by 2005 which he hasn't come close to reproducing.
    true enough, but it's very hard to tell at this point wheather it is truly pitching away from Oakland, or if he is just unlucky since then. my origianl deal stays the same, but i think if Blanton (or if Belisle can, and just might) replicate Lidle's career average, i think the Reds when the division if Ben Sheets doesn't stay entirely healthy.
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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    I think we've reached a poll point.

    how about one with these options:

    Yes, Bailey/Cueto + 2

    Yes lower level prospects

    No to Blanton at any price.

    Those seem to be the options we are discussing.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If you liked Homer before last year, then you should like him a little more this year simply because he logged another 120 IP without his arm falling off.

    That said, he's more likely to be a Volquez at 25 (this will be the year he turns it on!) than he'll be a Beckett. That's not a slam on Homer or his ceiling. That's just history talking coupled with the fact that Homer has yet to scream F you history.

    I'm not even suggesting it should be an easy decision to trade Homer. IMO, it shouldn't. However, he shouldn't be untouchable either because there is tremendous risk associated with the next step he needs to make.

    If someone offered a Kemp or a Rios for him, I'd jump at the deal.
    If you go back and read some of my posts you'll see that I actually agree with you to some extent. I don't think Homer is type of pitcher who will come up and set the world on fire right away. I see him struggling a bit this year with command and putting up an ERA in the 4.50-4.75 or 4.80 range and posting a solid 7.0+ K/9 this year. Not bad and not great. 2009 is the year where I could definitely see him taking a big leap forward and start to tap into that huge potential.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I think we've reached a poll point.

    how about one with these options:

    Yes, Bailey/Cueto + 2

    Yes lower level prospects

    No to Blanton at any price.

    Those seem to be the options we are discussing.
    I'd love to have Joe Blanton...just not for Bailey/Bruce/Cueto/Volquez/Votto.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Yes, Blanton would be pitching in more hitter friendly parks in the NL as a Red. But he'd also be pitching in a more pitcher friendly league environment in the NL.
    I think this is spot on-the league effect is very significant.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    The shift into a pitcher friendly league environment would swallow up the park effect shift. It's a pretty nice transition for a pitcher moving from the AL to the NL when suddenly 7-8 percent of his opposing PAs will be other team's pitchers.
    Here's the thing though. Normally the league effect dwarfs the park effect but moving from one extreme to the other can nullify the league effect. So is GABP a hitter's park or is it a homer park?

    This also brings up another point. Lets say for the sake of argument that GABP is an extreme hitters environment and the park effect completely nullifies the effect from changing leagues. That pretty much means status quo doesn't it (i.e. his AL numbers would translate directly to the NL)? So what exactly is Blanton's status quo (i.e. his true talent level)?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    If you go back and read some of my posts you'll see that I actually agree with you to some extent. I don't think Homer is type of pitcher who will come up and set the world on fire right away. I see him struggling a bit this year with command and putting up an ERA in the 4.50-4.75 or 4.80 range and posting a solid 7.0+ K/9 this year. Not bad and not great. 2009 is the year where I could definitely see him taking a big leap forward and start to tap into that huge potential.
    I could see him taking a huge step forward in '09 too. That said, with what certainty can we say '09 is the year and what tangible reason do we have to think that?

    That's the rub.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think this is spot on-the league effect is very significant.



    Here's the thing though. Normally the league effect dwarfs the park effect but moving from one extreme to the other can nullify the league effect. So is GABP a hitter's park or is it a homer park?

    This also brings up another point. Lets say for the sake of argument that GABP is an extreme hitters environment and the park effect completely nullifies the effect from changing leagues. That pretty much means status quo doesn't it (i.e. his AL numbers would translate directly to the NL)? So what exactly is Blanton's status quo (i.e. his true talent level)?
    Cory Lidle or a healthy Eric Milton or Joe Mays when he was "good," if he hits his actual talent level, a healthy John Smiley. or if the park factor is more than I give creedence to, a guy with a 5+ ERA and only 160ish innings, so not worth it.

    all that said, i would like Blanton if it only cosst one of Bailey (preferably him)/Cueto/Votto.
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  11. #565
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think this is spot on-the league effect is very significant.



    Here's the thing though. Normally the league effect dwarfs the park effect but moving from one extreme to the other can nullify the league effect. So is GABP a hitter's park or is it a homer park?

    This also brings up another point. Lets say for the sake of argument that GABP is an extreme hitters environment and the park effect completely nullifies the effect from changing leagues. That pretty much means status quo doesn't it (i.e. his AL numbers would translate directly to the NL)? So what exactly is Blanton's status quo (i.e. his true talent level)?
    I say it's his away numbers over the last two seasons.

    blech.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #566
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's the thing though. Normally the league effect dwarfs the park effect but moving from one extreme to the other can nullify the league effect. So is GABP a hitter's park or is it a homer park?

    This also brings up another point. Lets say for the sake of argument that GABP is an extreme hitters environment and the park effect completely nullifies the effect from changing leagues. That pretty much means status quo doesn't it (i.e. his AL numbers would translate directly to the NL)? So what exactly is Blanton's status quo (i.e. his true talent level)?
    At worst, the league effect and park effect will be a wash. I do think the league effect will be stronger than the park effect even in a Blanton to the Reds scenario, but not to the extent that we see with most pitchers shifting from the AL to NL.

    As far as Blanton's status quo - as a Red in the Reds' environment - I put that as a 4ish ERA. The projection systems I've seen judging Blanton as an A in the A's environment also has him at a 4ish ERA. If Blanton's healthy, I'd say the chances are extremely high for him to fit in the 3.75-4.25 ERA range. If he would deviate outside that, it would be either an injury or a pretty substantial luck factor, good or bad.

    And you can't worry about luck in a transaction. Make sure he's healthy, and if he is, make a deal happen.
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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I say it's his away numbers over the last two seasons.

    blech.
    For what it's worth, I've argued earlier that his road splits don't overly concern me.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo
    I tend to think the home/away split argument against Blanton is a little overblown. In '05 his ERA was .38 runs better at home. In '06 his ERA was .60 runs better at home. For some context Haren's ERA was .54 runs better at home than on the road as an Athletic. Now for the biggy-Blanton's '07 his ERA was 2.42 runs better at home. Basically Blanton's home/road splits have been greatly skewed by one wacky season.

    His peripherals might not be inspiring but his home/road splits probably aren't the flag some might think they are....

    Basically he's a guy who has GB tendencies, may have taken a step forward with his command, has shown an above average ability to churning up innings, and would be expected to get a bounce by changing leagues. Given that GABP isn't so much a hitter's environment as it excessively rewards flyballs there is reason to think Blanton wouldn't be dinged as badly by GABP as one might initially think. For instance, he's got GB tendencies and he's one of those weird guys who has consistently posted a HR/FB rate that is much lower than normal for a starter.
    The guy has gotten shelled over 70 IP in neutral parks but has essentially been the same pitcher in pitcher and hitter environments. That's a little weird. I'm willing to entertain the notion that some of the disparity in his home/road splits could be due to randomness rather than something more meaningful.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #568
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

    Since we are hitting the same topic on a "poll" thread and this is getting close to the maximum for a thread around here, I'm closing this and would ask to redirect your attention to the "Poll" thread - found here -

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...34#post1551134

    Once again, please keep it on topic, keep it clean, and keep it "rule 4,5,&7-free" please.
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