Overrated/Underrated

[bucksfan2]

Another guy who simply doesn't get the props he deserves is Frank Thomas. Yes, I know he has zero defensive value, but wow, was he an amazing hitter. Take a look at his 1994 season: .353/.487/.729. For his career, .300+ BA, 500+ HR, and more BBs than Ks. Just wow.

I think too often what sticks in our mind is what happened towards the end of the career instead of their prime. Thomas was a devistating hitter in his prime. KGJ is in the same category. People forget how great of a player he actually was when they look at him now.

[WMR]

Watching the '75 Series recently, a big deal was made because someone refused the ride in the cart. Maybe they could have a race with a vintage bullpen cart and Todd Coffey between innings this year?

Bwahahahaha...

I say when the Reds have huge leads in games this year (there has to be at least a few, right?) they use Coffey as a pinch runner. Get him some in-game cardio.

[blumj]

I think too often what sticks in our mind is what happened towards the end of the career instead of their prime. Thomas was a devistating hitter in his prime. KGJ is in the same category. People forget how great of a player he actually was when they look at him now.

It's hard to forget how great Thomas was/is when your team faces his team 18 or 19 times a year. He still scares the daylights out of me. The only difference is, he's not necessarily in the lineup for all 18 or 19 games. And he can barely make it all the way to 1st base when he hits what should be a double.

[traderumor]

I disagree. Best player in the NL is accurate, but fails to capture the degree of his performance to date. Here are his top 5 career comps through age 27 courtesy of Baseball Referene.

1. Joe DiMaggio (878) *
2. Jimmie Foxx (875) *
3. Ken Griffey (874)
4. Frank Robinson (871) *
5. Hank Aaron (864) *

There's "best guy in the league right now" and then there's "on pace for one of the greatest careers of all-time". Those are hardly the same thing.

I haven't seen anybody mention Ron Santo yet. He's there with Blyleven in my book as the biggest HoF snubs.

Another guy who simply doesn't get the props he deserves is Frank Thomas. Yes, I know he has zero defensive value, but wow, was he an amazing hitter. Take a look at his 1994 season: .353/.487/.729. For his career, .300+ BA, 500+ HR, and more BBs than Ks. Just wow.

I mentioned Santo. I disagree with the idea of underrated that many are purporting on here, obviously. You can't say someone is best in the league and then say they are underrated, at least in the English language. Further, I don't know of a whole lot of folks who discount the historical significance of Pujols career numbers. He is about as highly regarded as a player can be that is currently playing. Not sure what people are getting at with these claims, really, but then no one defined the terms from the outset, so people are pouring their own ideas into the terms, which makes the entire exercise futile.

[westofyou]

I mentioned Santo. I disagree with the idea of underrated that many are purporting on here, obviously. You can't say someone is best in the league and then say they are underrated, at least in the English language. Further, I don't know of a whole lot of folks who discount the historical significance of Pujols career numbers. He is about as highly regarded as a player can be that is currently playing. Not sure what people are getting at with these claims, really, but then no one defined the terms from the outset, so people are pouring their own ideas into the terms, which makes the entire exercise futile.

Agree, underrated means they don't get the accolades they deserve, I can't imagine how much more Pujoles can get at this point.

Underrated means guys like Bob Johnson and Roy Cullenbine.

Overrated means guys like Lloyd Waner or Ross Youngs

[pedro]

Dwight Evans was underrated.

[George Anderson]

Dwight Evans was underrated.

2 votes for Dewey.

[RedsManRick]

Here's an interesting one -- underrated, Jamie Moyer. 20 seasons of league average starting pitching is hardly something to scoff at. He hasn't pitched less than 150 IP since 1995, a 12 year streak that started when he was 33. His ERA has been under 5.00 9 of those 12 years and won 20+ twice.

[westofyou]

Here's an interesting one -- underrated, Jamie Moyer. 20 seasons of league average starting pitching is hardly something to scoff at. He hasn't pitched less than 150 IP since 1995, a 12 year streak that started when he was 33. His ERA has been under 5.00 9 of those 12 years and won 20+ twice.

Yeah... but what are his peripherals?

[jojo]

Um, actually, I wasn't making a case for Dunn. .

I understand you weren’t and didn't mean to imply otherwise.

But Beltre has been debated in context of Dunn. Dunn is a useful measuring stick especially since he’s an example that everyone on Redszone is intimately familiar with.

Basically, I’ve mentioned Beltre as underrated because it’s almost a certainty that members of the mainstream media will single him out when discussing busts. The truth is Beltre has been quite the opposite for the Ms.

Here’s another comparison of Beltre and Dunn’s overall value sans ’05 thru ’07 using runs created above league average for position to measure offense. The methodology is very straightforward. First, each season was normalized to a neutral environment within their league using Baseball Reference’s park factors in order to allow a more apples to apples comparison of their production. Then their runs created were estimated using Bill James’ simple formula (no clutch or additional park corrections etc). Next runs created for league average for their position was calculated assuming the same number of at bats as either player had that season. RCAA was then simply the difference between the individual and the league estimate.

Offense is only part of a player’s worth however. Addressing their defensive values obviously is a more contentious proposition so I decided to do so in a way that errors on the side of Dunn. Dewan’s plus/minus system has consistently rated Dunn as a better fielder than other play-by-play based defensive metrics like UZR and PMR, so while it’s best to use a survey of such metrics, in this case, focusing only on Dewan’s system should serve to help Dunn. Fortunately (or unfortunately) both players show up on the leaders for Dewan’s totals between ‘05 thru ’07 (another reason to use Dewan’s ratings) with Beltre rated as +42 and Dunn as -63 for that period. James suggests simply halving Dewan’s values yields a conversion to runs. Thus for that three year period, Beltre would get credit for +21 runs and Dunn would get dinged for 31 runs. For convenience, these defensive run values were distributed equally across the three seasons in question but in reality, their defensive values probably weren’t constant. But as they effect the three year totals, it’s a moot point. That said, while Dunn's defensive value is often argued, I doubt many would think -10 runs is a dramatic overestimate. The same is also probably true for Beltre who has been long considered a stellar defender. In any event, below are the summaries estimating the overall values of each player:

	Adrian Beltre						Adam Dunn				
    AL-3B-RC BeltreRC  RCAA  defense  Overall	     NL-LF-RC DunnRC   RCAA  defense Overall
2005	86	80	-6	7	1	2005	86	118	31	-10	21
2006	94	100	6	7	13	2006	96	97	2	-10	-8
2007	76	96	21	7	28	2007	89	109	20	-10	10
					43						22

Based upon this analysis, Beltre has averaged 1.5 wins above average while a Mariner. Dunn, on the other hand, has averaged less than a win above average (.7 wins/yr). It's important to note that this comparison doesn't even consider league adjustments and defensive position adjustments.

Beltre could only be considered a bust if Dunn also is considered one because Beltre has represented a greater advantage to the Ms than Dunn has represented to the Reds over this period. In any event, when the media suggest Beltre has been a bust, they are wrong. Not only hasn't he been a bust but he's been an above average third baseman for the Ms and they've got him for a sub-market contract.

The point isn't that Dunn is overrated (though simply focusing upon his offensive production will lead to him being overvalued). I'm not claiming Beltre is a HOFer either. I'm simply suggesting that by using a definition of underrated where it means a player doesn't get the accolades he deserves, Beltre qualifies as underrated-especially so when mainstream opinion describes him as a bust.

[RedsManRick]

Yeah... but what are his peripherals?

Career #s:
K/9: 5.39
BB/9: 2.57
HR/9: 1.13
FIP: 4.58

Not saying he's a great pitcher or anything, but it's a fairly remarkable career just because it's length, and isn't just hanging on for the fun of it -- he's still providing value.

Here's the active guys who have tenure on him from an IP perspective: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson. You don't have to be a deserved hall of famer to be under appreciated.

[Gainesville Red]

I've always thought Allbert Belle was a little underrated.

[westofyou]

Career #s:
K/9: 5.39
BB/9: 2.57
HR/9: 1.13
FIP: 4.58

Not saying he's a great pitcher or anything, but it's a fairly remarkable career just because it's length, and isn't just hanging on for the fun of it -- he's still providing value.

Here's the active guys who have tenure on him from an IP perspective: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson. You don't have to be a deserved hall of famer to be under appreciated.

Ummm I was being smug.... my take is to many people cling rate stats as the end all when the history of the game is littered with guys like Moyer.

[SteelSD]

jojo, we can easily understand how many offensive Runs a player is worth over positional average when equalized for the same number of Player Outs by using RAP. For example, in 2007, Adrian Beltre was worth 3.1 RAP. He was not worth 21 additional Runs versus average offensively. In 2006 and 2005, he was worth -2.5 and -11.6 respectively. That adds up to a total of -11.0 RAP over his tenure with the M's. RAP piggybacks on EQR for those numbers and EQR is already adjusted for park and league effects, thus so is RAP.

Adam Dunn has nothing to do with Adrian Beltre being an entirely overrated player, but the offensive gap between Dunn and Beltre is nearly 75 Runs over the past three seasons. That a crapload of Runs. While Beltre is a decent fielding third sacker, he's not the kind of elite guy who can even begin to make up for that kind of gap given his extreme offensive deficiencies (see: Outs). Beltre certainly isn't and hasn't been the guy the M's thought they were getting when they signed him. They thought they were getting a guy who had taken his game to the next level after what was likely a career year in 2004.

Whoops.

[Spitball]

Evans hit more HR's from 1980-1989 (256) than any other player in the AL. He also won eight Gold Gloves to go with his .272 avg 385 HR's and 1,385 RBI's. I didnt see enough of him to play to comment on his fielding but to win eight Gold Gloves he had to be doing something right.

Well, I watched Evans a lot before I left New England in the early '80's. Playing in Fenway Park, he had three seasons with thirty to thirty-four homers. Besides being over-rated (IMO) defensively, he had absolutely slider bat speed. Check out his record against power pitchers. He couldn't really hit the hard throwers.

He was okay, but he wasn't under-rated.