Very well said. Despite my reservations about Bailey, I'm entirely excited that he didn't go the route of Chris Gruler, Ty Howington, etc.Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
Faint praise, I know. But a healty pitching prospect is better than no pitching prospect.
<crosses fingers...rubs lucky rabbit's foot>
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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I appreciate Homer plenty. Caught him a few times in Dayton, one of his starts there was just spectacular.
If Homer can stay away from the injuries I suspect he'll put together a pretty nice career for himself. My main worry is how much of that career will benefit the Reds?
Will he contribute significantly to the Reds being successful this season? I have my doubts. Can he contribute significantly in 2009 or 2010? Lots of guys need a few years to put it together. Will Home be putting it together sooner rather than later? Hopefully.
Now the real question is, if he does put it together, is it in a time-frame in which the Reds have enough other pieces to make it worth something to them or do you get a Mario Soto situation? He could turn out to be an Ace and still be of pretty much no value (through no fault of his own).
These questoins are part of the reason I wouldn't have too much heartburn trading Homer for Blanton. Blanton (IMO) has a good chance to help you then next 2 years while you have Harang and Arroyo on the mound giving you a chance to make some noise.
GL
This is where they get held up. 22 years-old, hasn't put together a full good season in the upper minors yet, still needs control and polish, still hasn't pitched anything like a full major league season's innings load. The wayside is strewn with pitchers like Bailey who tasted the majors young, but never achieved any notable success.
I don't necessarily think that's Bailey's fate. As I mentioned before, I like him better with every year that passes without a catastrophic injury. It could be a good season, a fair season, a poor season or a bad season. He's still all kinds of green. Every new growth ring is cause for celebration.
He's at an interesting place. He's a valued prospect with some big hurdles to clear. It's entirely possible he'll lose value as he struggles over some of those hurdles. It's easy to believe in Homer Bailey today. It might be a lot harder in two years, but he might be more worthy of the belief at that time.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
The further away from the draft you get, the less relevant the hype becomes. He's a 21 year old who pitched effectively in a short stint in AAA. That's a very good thing. He's got very good stuff, but needs to both control and command it more effectively before he'll be successful in the majors.
Sure, he might not be great in 2008. He might not stick in the majors until 2010. But in any case, 21 year olds who succeed in AAA do pretty well in the majors, as minor league prospects go. Who cares what he has been hyped as or who might be better than him. Given his age, his stuff, his track record so far, and praying for health, I'm extremely excited to have him in the organization.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I can't remember if it was in the Sun Deck or ORG where I posted this so I'll say it again-it wasn't the 45.1 MLB innings that worry me from last year, since he was injured for some of them, it was the 67.1 innings in AAA in which he only struck out 7.89 per 9. That seems rather low, assuming he won't surpass that rate in the majors. I would think Bailey is going to need a pretty high K rate to be successful in the majors becuase of his poor control. Am I getting worked up over nothing, or is there something that explains that drop in K's?
You are getting worked up over nothing. Bailey spent two trips on the DL this year with hamstring issues. One took play in the minor leagues, then he also rehabbed went down while injured with the hammy before he went on the DL.
Do yourself a favor, toss this season out the window on Homer Bailey.... how do you feel about him now?
If Bailey is handled correctly, I'm still a believer. The problem I see is that everyone wants it now (including possibly WK). I think Bailey needs another full season in the minors in 2008 where he puts up 160 or so good innings in AAA. 2009 he comes to the bigs and takes some lumps. 2010 (at a still young 24) he becomes a plus starter. After that the sky is the limit. I wouldn't deal him unless its for the right deal (no one or two year rentals).
Bailey is still a kid. Let him grow-up before expecting him to be Walter Johnson. And don't write him off because he isn't yet. Pulling the timetable forward is the best way to ruin him IMO.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Umm...he's still a great big question mark and has had no big league success?Not sure how that makes your argument any stronger. It's not unheard of to be the "next big thing" and tear up AA only to flame out and never stick in the bigs.
I don't agree that we should trade him for a bucket of balls, but at the same time I don't think it's realistic to pretend he's the 2nd comming of Pedro/Koufax when he's yet to have any big league sucess. He's got value and if that can be translated into an arm that has had big league sucess (and is young, can be cost controlled for a while, etc) you'd be pretty silly not to consider making the deal.
Don't get me wrong, it's cool to actually have a pitching prospect to be excited about, but the hype doesn't remotley match reality here.
Last edited by Ltlabner; 02-13-2008 at 07:03 AM.
Bailey's AAA peripherals indicated he'd finally hit a level where hitters were advanced enough to avoid being K'd routinely by a dominant fastball. His BB/9 indicated that AAA hitters were recognizing his wildness and responding with patience at the plate. They suggested that Bailey had a greater need than ever to work a third pitch into his arsenal and to throw strikes early in the count -- both things that proved to be problematic for him in the majors. The place to work on those things is AAA, not the majors.
From a purely business standpoint, his exposure to the majors injected a dose of reality into what was, otherwise, a total lovefest surrounding his potential. It makes me wonder if the Bedard trade talks would've been different if the Reds were dangling "Homer Bailey, Phenom-in-Waiting" c2007 spring v. "Homer Bailey, Kid-With-Some-Stuff-To-Work-On" c2008.
The proper move (and I admit, I was one of those clamoring to see what he had last season) was to keep him in the minors and wait to bring him north until he had command of a third pitch and/or his peripherals (esp. K/9 and BB/9) reached true "dominant" levels.
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I'm still on for Homer, but don't think it would be a disaster if he spends time in AAA this season further mastering his skills. A good bit hinges on whether Affeldt is up to being in the rotation effectively (a big question, I agree), but if he is, that places Volquez and Affeldt in the final two spots and allows Homer to start at Louisville. I'm not relying on Affeldt to be effective as a starter, but if he is, I think that helps us long term.
[I hope that Bailey has learned his lesson about not mentioning physical problems - a number of folks have mentioned our good fortune of finally getting pitchers through our system in one piece - I'd like to keep it that way.]
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Bailey still has the potential to be a front-of-rotation guy. Just like the hype said. He's got some finishing to do, but he's 21/22.
I like his approach, I like his athleticism. He competes. He's going to get stronger. There's a lot to like in Homer, always has been.
He'll be good. How good remains to be seen.
I disagree with spending time in AAA. IMO that Homer needs to face the top competition. He is good enough to get by in AAA by over powering batters. He can pump fastballs in there and drop in a curve every once in a while and be an effective pitcher. He wouldnt be able to get by doing that in the bigs. My best case scenario is having him start the season as the #5 pitcher in the reds rotation. He can use the early part of the season to pitch in a pitcher friendly environment and doesn't exactly have to take the mound every 5th day. In reality he can miss a start without throwing the rotation for loops.
It has been my position this offseason that I would much rather see Bailey and Volquez take the ball over a guy like Affeldt or Belisle. With Bailey the talent is there, he has put it together at times last season and pitched very well. I would like to see him put on a strict pitch count early in the season and give the team about 6 innings per start to start the season.
historically, highly-drafted Texas HS pitchers have been less prone to serious injury than other highly drafted HS pitchers. I posted this on the day that we drafted Homer. Knock on (Travis) Wood
Homer Bailey, 2010- Twenty game winner.
Redszoners response, "But, can he fly?"
Homer Bailey, 2012- Cy Young award winner.
Redszoners response, "He can't stop time. Trade him."
Next Reds manager, second shooter. --Confirmed on Redszone.
Wonder who is more maligned as a future red Bailey or Stubbs?
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