Homer Bailey Appreciation Thread

[RedsManRick]

Homer Bailey, 2010- Twenty game winner.
Redszoners response, "But, can he fly?"

Homer Bailey, 2010- AAA All Star.
Redszoners response, "To think, we could've have had Joe Blanton..."

[redsmetz]

I disagree with spending time in AAA. IMO that Homer needs to face the top competition. He is good enough to get by in AAA by over powering batters. He can pump fastballs in there and drop in a curve every once in a while and be an effective pitcher. He wouldnt be able to get by doing that in the bigs. My best case scenario is having him start the season as the #5 pitcher in the reds rotation. He can use the early part of the season to pitch in a pitcher friendly environment and doesn't exactly have to take the mound every 5th day. In reality he can miss a start without throwing the rotation for loops.

It has been my position this offseason that I would much rather see Bailey and Volquez take the ball over a guy like Affeldt or Belisle. With Bailey the talent is there, he has put it together at times last season and pitched very well. I would like to see him put on a strict pitch count early in the season and give the team about 6 innings per start to start the season.

You make good points and there are many who believe Affeldt's value lies in the bullpen. That wouldn't necessarily be a bad scenario either.

[flyer85]

like his potential but he clearly still has command issues that he will have to resolve before he finds success as a MLB starter.

[blumj]

Bailey's AAA peripherals indicated he'd finally hit a level where hitters were advanced enough to avoid being K'd routinely by a dominant fastball. His BB/9 indicated that AAA hitters were recognizing his wildness and responding with patience at the plate. They suggested that Bailey had a greater need than ever to work a third pitch into his arsenal and to throw strikes early in the count -- both things that proved to be problematic for him in the majors. The place to work on those things is AAA, not the majors.

Some people don't learn until they're faced with real adversity. I think more time in AAA would be beneficial, but I don't think you can rule out the possibility that his time in the majors was helpful as well. If nothing else, it could make his adjustment to life in the majors easier when he is ready to stick.

[GoReds]

Homer certainly is no lock for the rotation and the Reds are giving him every indication that he will have to knock their socks off to come north with the team. If Homer shows that his fastball regains the life it had, his cutter has advanced and his curveball can be spotted, then he may force the Reds to bring him north. But nothing short of a dominant spring should see him start the year with the Reds.

[Highlifeman21]

Wonder who is more maligned as a future red Bailey or Stubbs?

Stubbs, easily.

Bailey at least has been a Top 10 prospect.

Stubbs will never be that.

[M2]

Homer Bailey, 2010- Twenty game winner.
Redszoners response, "But, can he fly?"

Homer Bailey, 2012- Cy Young award winner.
Redszoners response, "He can't stop time. Trade him."

Believe me, I'd like nothing better than for Homer Bailey to perform like that for the Reds.

And you've put his potential success inside the right window. There were a lot of people who once upon a time thought 2007 was going to be a magic season (in fact we heard a good bit of it this time last year).

I think what often happens with Bailey is those who note his future is far from assured get pigeonholed as thinking he's no good, or that there's nothing he can do to satisfy them. I don't think either is the case in most instances.

My take is Homer Bailey's exponentially more interesting than he was when he got drafted. That he's progressed to the level he has so far is an unmitigated success for the franchise. The real question is what do you do with that success?

Do you bank on more success or do you parlay it into something else? Both are viable options and it's nothing but a good thing for a franchise to have those options.

[RedsManRick]

Do you bank on more success or do you parlay it into something else? Both are viable options and it's nothing but a good thing for a franchise to have those options.

Very balanced take, M2. Do you trade a shot at some unknown value between $0.00 and $1.00 sometime in the next few years for $0.40 today? As you point out, there are arguments to be made for either case.

[ddrone]

Mark me down as a Homer Fan.

I think if homer were pitching for a different team,we would be screaming for Wayne to trade for him.(grass,greener,etc.)

He had hamstring problems all year last year,came up the last couple games and looked good.I fully believe Homer will have the type of year that looks like what he pitched for the last 4 starts of 2007.

Was he rushed a bit last year?Yes,but we dont know what transpired behind the scenes.Maybe Homer was screaming to be up with the big team,and the Reds were telling him he needs to practice on his third pitch,or he would get hit in the bigs,so they got tired of that,pulled him up,so they could tell him I told you so.

I seem to remember that when He was on the disabled list,that someone was working with him pitching on the side,maybe they were then working on that 3 pitch.

We have some realy nice young pitchers,not just nice for the Reds org,but for all of baseball.Let them play.

[*BaseClogger*]

You are getting worked up over nothing. Bailey spent two trips on the DL this year with hamstring issues. One took play in the minor leagues, then he also rehabbed went down while injured with the hammy before he went on the DL.

Do yourself a favor, toss this season out the window on Homer Bailey.... how do you feel about him now?

If I remember he still wasn't striking out many before the injuries-perhaps you can check into that for me.

As for my opinion, I still prefer Cueto because I am a conservative guy and I think Cueto is as close to a sure thing as pitching prospects come. I'm concerned with Bailey's ability to develope a third pitch and durability-he still isn't ready for a MLB workload. I'd like to see him spend the first half of the season dominating in AAA with his curve and changeup. Then, bring him up while he's hot. Another benefit of AAA is that it will help control his innings and pitch counts. By throwing out last season, Homer Bailey is just a raw AA pitching prospect that is not ready...

[edabbs44]

Very balanced take, M2. Do you trade a shot at some unknown value between $0.00 and $1.00 sometime in the next few years for $0.40 today? As you point out, there are arguments to be made for either case.

I think that all depends on where the decision maker believes the team is. If he thinks the team is 40 cents short of their goal, then probably.

If they are $1.00 short, then I would say probably not.

[SunDeck]

Believe me, I'd like nothing better than for Homer Bailey to perform like that for the Reds.

And you've put his potential success inside the right window. There were a lot of people who once upon a time thought 2007 was going to be a magic season (in fact we heard a good bit of it this time last year).

I think what often happens with Bailey is those who note his future is far from assured get pigeonholed as thinking he's no good, or that there's nothing he can do to satisfy them. I don't think either is the case in most instances.

My take is Homer Bailey's exponentially more interesting than he was when he got drafted. That he's progressed to the level he has so far is an unmitigated success for the franchise. The real question is what do you do with that success?

Do you bank on more success or do you parlay it into something else? Both are viable options and it's nothing but a good thing for a franchise to have those options.

I was being facetious.

I think this board can be judgmental about things we don't necessarily have enough information to be judgmental about. But I don't think that's a fault- after all what else would we do?- I just think it's a funny quirk we all share and I include myself in that assessment.
We don't really know the whole story with Homer last year, yet we did make a lot of conclusions about his future based on his performance. He had an injury, he was probably pitching in the bigs a little too early and he still needs to gain command of a true out pitch. I am extremely happy with where he is at this point and I still believe he will be a solid pitcher at the major league level and I believe they need to hang onto him, if for no other reason than to teach themselves how to develop a pitching prospect.

And I had never considered 2007 to be a possible magical year. Anyone who did would have been way too optimistic. This team is only just beginning to look like a real ballclub from the minors on up, if you ask me. Granted I am optimistic about the next 2-5 years based on what they have done lately, but I still look at 2008 as the year they finally establish to the rest of the MLB that they are not a pack of goofballs anymore. Really has ANYONE been taking them seriously for the last seven years?

[jojo]

Do yourself a favor, toss this season out the window on Homer Bailey.... how do you feel about him now?

You can't really do that because it's all part of the record of his development-even if some of it may have an asterisk. Actually, the asterisks are important information too.

[jojo]

Bailey's AAA peripherals indicated he'd finally hit a level where hitters were advanced enough to avoid being K'd routinely by a dominant fastball. His BB/9 indicated that AAA hitters were recognizing his wildness

I think his peripherals last year were more indicative of him hunting command than of his stuff reaching it's ceiling (i.e. backing off of the velocity and using his breaking stuff more).

His fastball and curve truly are major plus major league quality.

[dougdirt]

like his potential but he clearly still has command issues that he will have to resolve before he finds success as a MLB starter.

Tell that to Carlos Zambrano.