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Thread: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    As we all know, we've got 3 open rotation spots and a number of guys who could take the ball. One of them is Jeremy Affeldt. I'm going to leave him out of the conversation because at best he's a poor stop-gap and I don't know anybody who thinks otherwise. I'd also go ahead and hand a spot to Belisle, but I realize many people aren't convinced, so we'll keep him in the conversation.

    With all the Blanton conversation, it doesn't seem like we've had a central discussion on the young guys. Rather the amateur scouting and citing of minor league numbers, I thought I'd take a forward looking approach. We could tear in to all kinds of details about workload, groundball tendencies, etc. I'd like to keep it pretty simple.

    Here are the PECOTA weighted mean projections for these 5 options. Because each of these guys is being projected on the assumption that they'll play in Cincy, I'm not going to neutralize for park or defense.

    Code:
      
    		H	BB	SO	HR	ERA	FIP
    Bailey		9.0	5.4	7.2	1.2	5.30	5.19
    Belisle		10.1	2.5	6.2	1.1	4.51	4.32
    Cueto		9.6	3.2	7.3	1.5	4.83	4.85
    Maloney		9.3	4.1	7.1	1.5	4.98	5.13
    Volquez		8.5	4.5	8.4	1.2	4.57	4.65
    Based on the projections from PECOTA, the best 3 options are Belisle, Volquez, and Cueto -- in that order. If you then go look at IP projections or history, these 3 are the most prepared to handle the workload as well. I know the assumption by many is that Bailey is at the head of the class. PECOTA thinks otherwise.

    It also shows how each of these guys can take a step forward. Bailey and Volquez have to cut down on the walks. Belisle needs some help from his defense. Cueto needs to keep the ball in the yard, as does Maloney. Given their ages, it's a nice group of guys to have.

    And I think it should give up pause about the "need" to go out and trade multiple prospects for a proven league average guy. As you make that assertion, are you comparing that veteran to Reds rotations of the last decade, or to the crew of guys likely to man the rotation in 2008 and beyond?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Good post Rick, but I am going to say that PECOTA doesn't really have me trusting their system on the Bailey numbers. I just find it hard to believe that his FIP is going to be higher this year than it was last year despite pitching through an injury last year and getting his feet wet.

    His other Projections have him at 4.45 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 4.91 ERA and 4.47 ERA. I know PECOTA is generally more accurate, but its on the far end of the spectrum for me.

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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Barring an overreaction by Krivsky, if this group remains Cincinnati property through ST and into the season, the rotation is likely:

    Harang
    Arroyo
    Belisle
    Volquez (he wasn't aquired for the 'pen or L'ville)

    notice how i left that 5th spot out?

    See I think Dusty and Kriv are going to base #5 on ST. While I think that isn't a real good idea, at least it isn't a competition for the #1-3 spots.

    Right now, Bailey is likely the front runner, with Cueto a tick behind. Maloney is a more distant third, even though Krivsky brought him in. He's still new to the org and has only a handful of games at AAA.

    And while this thought probably belongs in the minor league forum, watch out for Gardner. He dominated AA, and has started twice as many games at AAA than the two guys above him He has to be in AAA this year, and his fate is in his own hands.

    The worst case scenario is Affeldt impresses as a starter in ST. Cuz you just know that won't last.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    As we all know, we've got 3 open rotation spots and a number of guys who could take the ball. One of them is Jeremy Affeldt. I'm going to leave him out of the conversation because at best he's a poor stop-gap and I don't know anybody who thinks otherwise. I'd also go ahead and hand a spot to Belisle, but I realize many people aren't convinced, so we'll keep him in the conversation.

    With all the Blanton conversation, it doesn't seem like we've had a central discussion on the young guys. Rather the amateur scouting and citing of minor league numbers, I thought I'd take a forward looking approach. We could tear in to all kinds of details about workload, groundball tendencies, etc. I'd like to keep it pretty simple.

    Here are the PECOTA weighted mean projections for these 5 options. Because each of these guys is being projected on the assumption that they'll play in Cincy, I'm not going to neutralize for park or defense.

    Code:
      
    		H	BB	SO	HR	ERA	FIP
    Bailey		9.0	5.4	7.2	1.2	5.30	5.19
    Belisle		10.1	2.5	6.2	1.1	4.51	4.32
    Cueto		9.6	3.2	7.3	1.5	4.83	4.85
    Maloney		9.3	4.1	7.1	1.5	4.98	5.13
    Volquez		8.5	4.5	8.4	1.2	4.57	4.65
    Based on the projections from PECOTA, the best 3 options are Belisle, Volquez, and Cueto -- in that order. If you then go look at IP projections or history, these 3 are the most prepared to handle the workload as well. I know the assumption by many is that Bailey is at the head of the class. PECOTA thinks otherwise.

    It also shows how each of these guys can take a step forward. Bailey and Volquez have to cut down on the walks. Belisle needs some help from his defense. Cueto needs to keep the ball in the yard, as does Maloney. Given their ages, it's a nice group of guys to have.

    And I think it should give up pause about the "need" to go out and trade multiple prospects for a proven league average guy. As you make that assertion, are you comparing that veteran to Reds rotations of the last decade, or to the crew of guys likely to man the rotation in 2008 and beyond?
    Good thread. I've been harping on the innings thing since last season and based on that alone, I think Bailey isn't ready. I also agree with the Pecota projections if not in exact numbers at least in the order that they are ranked (though by the end of 08, I think Volquez will have passed by Belisle and maybe even Arroyo).

    My reason for wanting to deal for Blanton has a lot to do with my high hopes for Bailey and Cueto. I wouldn't deal Bailey or Cueto and I'd focus on lower minor leaguers or if they must have a pitcher from this group Maloney is the one I'd be willing to cough up. The facts are that in 2008, if Belisle and Voquez are givens, that is enough uncertainty. A lot is going to be asked of these guys in terms of workload over a major league season and they still (especially Bailey and to a lesser extent Cueto) need to be babied. If they are all in there at once, it just isn't possible to protect them all. Add another 200 inning horse to Harang, Arroyo and a now late 20's and built up Belisle and it should be pretty easy to keep Volquez out of harms way. In the mean time, Bailey and Cueto get another year to mature physically, emotionally and from a pitching standpoint. OTOH, subtract Blanton and go with 2 of these guys and you have one who is just leaving the injury nexus and one who is squarely in the middle of it. As the team goes through the rotation it will be very difficult to protect them both. When the other three all pitch well it won't be so tough, but when Arroyo can only go 4 or Belisle is blown out in the 3rd, then that time through the risk is that at least one of these kids is going to be pushed too far.

    I'm a big believer in the future revolving around Bailey, Volquez and Cueto, but I think the best way to protect that future is to add an inning horse now. I just don't trade these kids to get him. Votto? If they must. EdE? Ok, there is depth there? Maloney, Stubbs, FRancisco, Valaika, etc.? Fine, make the deal. Get the 200 inning guy. It helps a lot in 2008. IMO, it helps more in 2010.

    Besides, if these kids come through, in a couple years there will be some pretty good pitchers who could be dealt to help the budget and replace what is dealt now. Say the rotation shapes up with Harang, Volquez, Baley, Cueto, and Blanton. By then the Lecures, Woods, Fishers etc will be knocking on the door. Wouldn't Arroyo, Belisle or both make a pretty good trading chips? Blanton could be moved again. And if they don't all work out, having the numbers certainly allows a move to the pen as a salvage move. If the Reds keep the main core intact and are only willing to trade a bat where there may be depth, they can replenish the younger prospects fairly easily.
    Last edited by mth123; 02-13-2008 at 10:11 PM.
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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    I'm sure they will all pitch great, especially Bailey.
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Good post Rick, but I am going to say that PECOTA doesn't really have me trusting their system on the Bailey numbers. I just find it hard to believe that his FIP is going to be higher this year than it was last year despite pitching through an injury last year and getting his feet wet.

    His other Projections have him at 4.45 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 4.91 ERA and 4.47 ERA. I know PECOTA is generally more accurate, but its on the far end of the spectrum for me.
    One thing to remember is that Bailey was HR lucky, in that based on the law of averages, Bailey was due to give up roughly twice as many homers as he did considering his HR/FB rate. The only reason it was so low was more or less a question of small sample size. FIP has no control on the HR/FB rates and would be making the assumption that his HR/FB rate will remain stable.

    If you factor in that correction, PECOTA's estimate is suggesting that Bailey would make an incremental improvement over last year's showing.

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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    It also shows how each of these guys can take a step forward. Bailey and Volquez have to cut down on the walks. Belisle needs some help from his defense. Cueto needs to keep the ball in the yard, as does Maloney. Given their ages, it's a nice group of guys to have.

    And I think it should give up pause about the "need" to go out and trade multiple prospects for a proven league average guy. As you make that assertion, are you comparing that veteran to Reds rotations of the last decade, or to the crew of guys likely to man the rotation in 2008 and beyond?
    Part of the issue that isn't addressed here is the importance of IP in the starting rotation.

    There's a world of difference between 150-160 "league average" innings from a starter and 230 "league average" innings from a starter. The former number is what you're likely going to get from a Bailey or Cueto -- especially from Bailey, who showed next to no aptitude for pitch efficiency (a function of his wildness) in his stint in the majors. Simply put, it is taxing on a bullpen to protect 1 young starter. Ratchet that difficulty up a ton when you're looking at throwing kids on back-to-back nights. This bullpen doesn't have the juice to be productive with that kind of workload.

    Don't underestimate the importance of a 2nd pitcher to pair with Harang where you can give him the ball and feel comfortable not going to get him until the 7th inning.
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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Belisle shouldn't be included in this competition, IMO.

    Neither should Volquez.

    I see the only spot that should be open at this point is the final one and I would much prefer Bailey there over Affeldt.
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Barring an overreaction by Krivsky, if this group remains Cincinnati property through ST and into the season, the rotation is likely:

    Harang
    Arroyo
    Belisle
    Volquez (he wasn't aquired for the 'pen or L'ville)

    notice how i left that 5th spot out?

    See I think Dusty and Kriv are going to base #5 on ST. While I think that isn't a real good idea, at least it isn't a competition for the #1-3 spots.

    Right now, Bailey is likely the front runner, with Cueto a tick behind. Maloney is a more distant third, even though Krivsky brought him in. He's still new to the org and has only a handful of games at AAA.

    And while this thought probably belongs in the minor league forum, watch out for Gardner. He dominated AA, and has started twice as many games at AAA than the two guys above him He has to be in AAA this year, and his fate is in his own hands.

    The worst case scenario is Affeldt impresses as a starter in ST. Cuz you just know that won't last.
    Then be prepared for game 4 in the season to be a blow out. I can easily see this guy walk his way into the hearts of every other NL ball club.

    Here is my issue, what is the plan if Arroyo has anothjer first half like he did last year, if Harang loses games based on an error or two and Belisle gives more thana few gopher balls while the "new kids" take their lumps?

    You say it won't happen? Remember Paul Wilson?

    Aren't you getting a little tired of this uphill season year after year? Where pitcher have to sudeenly do things opposite of what they have proven is their real talent?

    Volquez and Bailey have no command....period. Bailey maye pull a Harang and develop it, but when. Volquez has no command and two pitchers......and Hopper may now start in Cf all because Hamilton MIGHT not be durable?

    Cueto has barely pitched at a real professional level....I mean near major league talent level.....from what I have read, he is probably the most like to have some major league success.

    Maloney was traded for less than a top talent at the deadline and is raw.

    Yet, day after day, the talk is how the Reds have 4 future Nolan Ryans. I still don't get it.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    Then be prepared for game 4 in the season to be a blow out. I can easily see this guy walk his way into the hearts of every other NL ball club.
    Yes, against that fantastic Phillies rotation who are going to be running out Jamie Moyer (who I like and all, but well the guy is 45), Adam Eaton or JD Durbin..... Personally I can't figure how thats going to be a blowout unless its in the Reds favor.

    Here is my issue, what is the plan if Arroyo has anothjer first half like he did last year, if Harang loses games based on an error or two and Belisle gives more thana few gopher balls while the "new kids" take their lumps?
    Arroyo could have another first half like he did last year. Of course he could have another first half like he did in 2006 too. Odds are he falls somewhere in the middle. If Harang loses a game on an error or two, what does that have to do with anything? Belisle likely will serve up some gopher balls and the kids will take some lumps. Of course Belisle likely improves and the new kids likely will have some dominant games as well as 'lumps'.

    You say it won't happen? Remember Paul Wilson?
    Oh please. Paul Wilsons arm was hanging on by a thread and he never once was a league average pitcher for the Reds. Not once. Thats a really bad comparison.

    Aren't you getting a little tired of this uphill season year after year? Where pitcher have to sudeenly do things opposite of what they have proven is their real talent?
    I don't know what you think is the opposite of their proven talent, but every pitcher up for a rotation spot has shown they have plenty of talent. Whether they can get it all together is another question, but we aren't talking about a bunch of junk ballers competing for the spots like in the past and thats a very big difference when we have guys with actual talent, not just hope that this guy or that guy doesn't turn into a pumpkin that everyone knows he is (Joe Mays, Ryan Dempster, Jimmy Haynes, Danny Graves, Jose Acevedo, Cory Lidle, Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz and Dave Williams over the past few years). That group of guys I just named have almost nothing in common with the group we have competing for the spots right now. Those guys were all washed up, being beaten around long before they came here and or returning from a major arm injury. To try and suggest we are somehow in the same boat as before is misleading.

    Volquez and Bailey have no command....period. Bailey maye pull a Harang and develop it, but when. Volquez has no command and two pitchers......and Hopper may now start in Cf all because Hamilton MIGHT not be durable?
    Volquez and Bailey have command, just not always the best. Neither does Carlos Zambrano. I bet you would love to have him on your staff though. Sure, it would be great if everyone had the control of Greg Maddux, but hardly anyone does. Likewise, not too many pitchers have to pitches on pace with Bailey and Volquez fastballs and curve/change. As for Hopper/Hamilton, when was the last time Hamilton played a full season? Oh yeah, his senior year of high school. He is going to be what, 27 this year? Hopper is what he is, a stop gap. I doubt he plays more than 50 games in CF this year unless Bruce gets injured.

    Cueto has barely pitched at a real professional level....I mean near major league talent level.....from what I have read, he is probably the most like to have some major league success.
    Neither had Cole Hamels (42 innings above high A) or Tim Lincecum (31 innings above high A) until 2006 and 2007....

    Maloney was traded for less than a top talent at the deadline and is raw.
    Raw? Where did you see that at?

    Yet, day after day, the talk is how the Reds have 4 future Nolan Ryans. I still don't get it.
    No you don't hear talk about 4 future Nolan Ryan's. Maybe the fact that you think you do is why you don't get it, but I know that anyone trying to compare Cueto or Maloney to Nolan Ryan doesn't know much. Nolan Ryan didn't walk below 4 batters per 9 innings until he was 33 years old and this was in an era where walks were frowned upon for the most part because you weren't hitting behind the runner or trying to drive in that runner on second with an outside pitch by driving it the other way. Cueto and Maloney are absolute control artist compared to Nolan Ryan, much less their tons of other differences.

  12. #11
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Yet note previous PECOTA projections:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ghlight=pecota

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ghlight=pecota

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...809#post563809

    PECOTA has fairly consistently overestimated the young and/or bad starting pitchers for this franchise. Every season the back of the rotation turns out worse than projected. It's one of the reasons why I'm notionally for the stability a Joe Blanton brings.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Yet note previous PECOTA projections:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ghlight=pecota

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ghlight=pecota

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...809#post563809

    PECOTA has fairly consistently overestimated the young and/or bad starting pitchers for this franchise. Every season the back of the rotation turns out worse than projected. It's one of the reasons why I'm notionally for the stability a Joe Blanton brings.
    I am all for Joe Blanton as well, just not at the expense of Bailey or Cueto.

    As far as the PECOTAs go in the past on our younger pitchers.... again, we haven't had young guys with this kind of talent before so it doesn't really mean much to me.

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    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Come on dougD, I know you are trying to make me feel better here......and I will start the first with the last.....Nolan Ryan didn't need command....in his case, at 97 mph on his 100 pitch of a game, he was effectively wild. He also threw the ball just plain past the best hitter of his day.....and in his 20's. If you never saw Nolan Ryan pitch, then maybe that is why you cannot see that of 4 guys, 4 simply aren't going to become major league starters....in fact, odds are against virtually all of them.

    As to the rest of it, we will just have to watch what works out. I would bet money that the combination of Blanton and Bedard will far out do Bailey and Cueto over the next years or so.

    One other point though.....in 45 years as a baseball fan, my experience tells me that one of the worst things a team can do is overvalue their minor leaguers.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    I don't think any of them become Nolan Ryan, but they don't have to be and thats the point. Fact is, I fully believe in Cueto, Bailey and Volquez to be good Major League starters, all for different reasons.

    I think you are right about Blanton and Bedard outdoing Bailey and Cueto over the next few years.... they will also be making 16-30 million more per year than they will too. I also think that the BB group out does the BC group based soley around what Bedard does, because I don't think Blanton out performed Bailey or Cueto post 2008. I would love to see how they all stack up in 4 years though when Bailey and Cueto are 26 and Bedard and Blanton are in their 30s.

    As for overvaluing your minor leaguers, I agree. They aren't doing that though.

  16. #15
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    Re: Bailey, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, Volquez

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't think any of them become Nolan Ryan, but they don't have to be and thats the point. Fact is, I fully believe in Cueto, Bailey and Volquez to be good Major League starters, all for different reasons.

    I think you are right about Blanton and Bedard outdoing Bailey and Cueto over the next few years.... they will also be making 16-30 million more per year than they will too. I also think that the BB group out does the BC group based soley around what Bedard does, because I don't think Blanton out performed Bailey or Cueto post 2008. I would love to see how they all stack up in 4 years though when Bailey and Cueto are 26 and Bedard and Blanton are in their 30s.

    As for overvaluing your minor leaguers, I agree. They aren't doing that though.
    Money has not been the issue here. Bedard would have been the Reds property for two more years and Blanton for 3. Assume that the contract had to be OK before the Reds even entered trade discussions.

    As to whether or not they are over valuing their minor leaguers, they absolutely are. The Reds simply do NOT own 4, 3, 2 or even necessarily one prospect that will become an over .500 major league starter. If they did, their franchise would be the talk of basbeball and traders would have camped at their front door. Nobody has so far.

    Do you think that Bailey, Cueto and Volquez could be another Hudson, Zito and Mulder? If so....wow....I agree that you don't even think about a trade.

    If they are anything less, you better make a trade to win right now, because 2008 and 2009 are almost certainly the high points for this franchise for quite a while.
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