As we all know, we've got 3 open rotation spots and a number of guys who could take the ball. One of them is Jeremy Affeldt. I'm going to leave him out of the conversation because at best he's a poor stop-gap and I don't know anybody who thinks otherwise. I'd also go ahead and hand a spot to Belisle, but I realize many people aren't convinced, so we'll keep him in the conversation.
With all the Blanton conversation, it doesn't seem like we've had a central discussion on the young guys. Rather the amateur scouting and citing of minor league numbers, I thought I'd take a forward looking approach. We could tear in to all kinds of details about workload, groundball tendencies, etc. I'd like to keep it pretty simple.
Here are the PECOTA weighted mean projections for these 5 options. Because each of these guys is being projected on the assumption that they'll play in Cincy, I'm not going to neutralize for park or defense.
Based on the projections from PECOTA, the best 3 options are Belisle, Volquez, and Cueto -- in that order. If you then go look at IP projections or history, these 3 are the most prepared to handle the workload as well. I know the assumption by many is that Bailey is at the head of the class. PECOTA thinks otherwise.Code:H BB SO HR ERA FIP Bailey 9.0 5.4 7.2 1.2 5.30 5.19 Belisle 10.1 2.5 6.2 1.1 4.51 4.32 Cueto 9.6 3.2 7.3 1.5 4.83 4.85 Maloney 9.3 4.1 7.1 1.5 4.98 5.13 Volquez 8.5 4.5 8.4 1.2 4.57 4.65
It also shows how each of these guys can take a step forward. Bailey and Volquez have to cut down on the walks. Belisle needs some help from his defense. Cueto needs to keep the ball in the yard, as does Maloney. Given their ages, it's a nice group of guys to have.
And I think it should give up pause about the "need" to go out and trade multiple prospects for a proven league average guy. As you make that assertion, are you comparing that veteran to Reds rotations of the last decade, or to the crew of guys likely to man the rotation in 2008 and beyond?