Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

[dougdirt]

I have a little formula that I use to gauge future projections of my own that I will tweak every now and again when the numbers don't really match up with what my brain thinks they will bare out to be. That said, I only did 4.25 bullpen guys. Weathers, Burton and Cordero are the only guys I feel are locks to make the bullpen out of ST, so I only did them. Jeremy Affeldt I picture making the #5 spot ahead of Bailey just because of the numbers game, but he will be pushed out of the rotation and into the bullpen in May. The other .5 is Johnny Cueto who I believe will get a few starts and spend some time in the bullpen late in the season.

Anyways, here are my projections for some of the Reds. Feel free to tell me I am an idiot if you want, but I will counter with why I am not.

[PuffyPig]

If those players do that, we can win the division.

[WMR]

I hope you're right, buddy!

[Chip R]

You're only projecting a 4.31 ERA for Homer? Is that just pitching left-handed?

[RedEye]

Dunn, Junior, Hopper, Hatte and Freel seem accurate to me. I'd say you're being slightly optimistic with A-Gon (although a few more lucky moonshots could carry for him, so I'll give you that) and a bit pessimistic with Phillips (although I suppose you're just projecting him to be a bit unlucky, which I accept). I would love to see Votto, EdE and Ross produce the way you've suggested, but I have my doubts.

Finally, your stats for Bruce seem to be roughly in line with quite a few other projections I've seen. I'm wondering why everyone thinks his OBP will hover around .330. Is it because he struck out so much in the minors? Do you see that being a learning curve issue where it will improve dramatically in year two?

As for the pitchers, I agree on Harang and Arroyo. They are both actually fairly consistent pitchers, and barring injury, I see them spinning similar seasons. How realistic do you think it is to expect all four of the young guys (Belisle, Bailey, Volquez, Cueto) to be around league average? Unless I'm misguided, that's what your projections seem to suggest, right? I'd love to see this happen, of course, but I have to think that the more likely scenario would have 2 out of 4 of them finishing that way with the other two struggling a bit. Honestly, I think if 2 out of 4 of them can approach a 4.50, the team will be awfully competitive.

My only quibble with the BP is that I have a feeling that Weathers is going to implode... but that's not based on any kind of reliable statistical backup.

Thanks for some great work!

[OnBaseMachine]

I think you're too pessimistic with Dunn. I see him having one of the better years of his career - he's coming off one of his best years in which he OPS'ed .940 despite having a bad knee - plus he's entering the prime of his career. I'm thinking more along with lines of a .950+ OPS and 45 homers from Dunn in 2008, which hopefully leads to a contract extension.

[dougdirt]

[QUOTE=RedEye;1552392]Dunn, Junior, Hopper, Hatte and Freel seem accurate to me. I'd say you're being slightly optimistic with A-Gon (although a few more lucky moonshots could carry for him, so I'll give you that) and a bit pessimistic with Phillips (although I suppose you're just projecting him to be a bit unlucky, which I accept). I would love to see Votto, EdE and Ross produce the way you've suggested, but I have my doubts.

I may have been a little friendly with Gonzo, but I think with his head in things this year (hopefully) and the ballpark, it will do some good for his bat. With Phillips, his drop in home runs is basically what is costing him here. The other guys, I feel good about my projections with. Ross was incredibly unlucky last year (.228 BABIP) and I expect him to rebound to something more realistic which will reflect in his average next year.

Finally, your stats for Bruce seem to be roughly in line with quite a few other projections I've seen. I'm wondering why everyone thinks his OBP will hover around .330. Is it because he struck out so much in the minors? Do you see that being a learning curve issue where it will improve dramatically in year two?

Its not so much the strikeouts, its the lack of walks. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts in the majors to pitchers. He doesn't exactly have bad plate coverage issues. He doesn't walk a lot, but its not because he is chasing stuff for the most part. I think he will top out in the .70-.90 Isolated Discipline area, but hes not quite there yet.

As for the pitchers, I agree on Harang and Arroyo. They are both actually fairly consistent pitchers, and barring injury, I see them spinning similar seasons. How realistic do you think it is to expect all four of the young guys (Belisle, Bailey, Volquez, Cueto) to be around league average? Unless I'm misguided, that's what your projections seem to suggest, right? I'd love to see this happen, of course, but I have to think that the more likely scenario would have 2 out of 4 of them finishing that way with the other two struggling a bit. Honestly, I think if 2 out of 4 of them can approach a 4.50, the team will be awfully competitive.

My Belisle projection isn't out of line with some others I have seen. In all honesty, Belisle was league average last year if you look at all of his peripherals. I expect him to improve on them slightly, but his luck to be more realistic. I think Volquez and Bailey are just ready to break out. Given their stuff being electric I just think they are ready to be reliable guys, although perhaps in the Kyle Lohse mold where they will go out one day and give you 5ip, 8h, 3bb, 3K and 5ER but the next start give you 7ip, 3h, 2bb and 10K with 0 or 1 ER. With Cueto, I don't see him getting time until September unless there are several injuries and or implosions. I figure he gets a start or two then comes out of the bullpen the rest of the season to help out.

My only quibble with the BP is that I have a feeling that Weathers is going to implode... but that's not based on any kind of reliable statistical backup.

I think Weathers takes a hit from last year, but not as bad as some others. I think he is actually the key to the bullpen this year given what we need him to do and his age.

[Redhook]

If Votto comes close to that I would be very pleased and that would also mean he shouldn't be splitting any time with Hatteberg. It's time to trade Hatty even though I like him.

[11BarryLarkin11]

Interesting.

What makes you think that Phillips' OBP will go up .004 points, while his average drops .012 points? Personally, I think his batting average
will drop and his OBP will be at .325 or lower.

I think you're probably right on with Homer, but I'd expect better out of Cueto.

[Falls City Beer]

I'll say Homer doesn't even approach that K rate.

This has to be a "best-case scenario" projection for this team.

[dougdirt]

I'll say Homer doesn't even approach that K rate.

This has to be a "best-case scenario" projection for this team.

FCB, I am 100% serious and not saying this in any demeaning way, but I would love to see what your player projections would look like.

[Falls City Beer]

Dunn .980 OPS 42 HR
Junior .822 OPS 20 HR (300 AB)
Votto .800 OPS 13 HR (400 AB)
Phillips .760 OPS 18 HR
Bruce .800 OPS 16 HR (300 AB)
Freel .720 OPS 5 HR (200 AB)
Ross .720 OPS 10 HR
Encarnacion .780 12 HR
Gonzalez .730 10 HR
Keppinger .765 5 HR

I pretty much agree with your take on Harang through Belisle. It's after that that you go off the deep end.

Volquez 150 IP 80 BB 120 K
Bailey 60 IP 30 BB 40 K (late callup)
Weathers 30 IP (injured)
Burton 40 IP 18 BB 30 K
Cueto 45 IP 10 25 K
Affeldt 120 IP 50 BB 70 K

[dougdirt]

Interesting.

What makes you think that Phillips' OBP will go up .004 points, while his average drops .012 points? Personally, I think his batting average will drop and his OBP will be at .325 or lower.

I think you're probably right on with Homer, but I'd expect better out of Cueto.

Few more walks and a few extra HBP's for BP gets the job done. His average will slump slightly because I don't think his HR numbers stay constant with last years totals.

With Cueto, its such a small sample that if he allowed 17 ER instead of the 18 I gave him, his ERA would drop to 4.37. Basically all that means is Dunn gets a bad break on a ball one game and his ERA takes what seems like a large dent because of it.

[11BarryLarkin11]

Few more walks and a few extra HBP's for BP gets the job done. His average will slump slightly because I don't think his HR numbers stay constant with last years totals.

With Cueto, its such a small sample that if he allowed 17 ER instead of the 18 I gave him, his ERA would drop to 4.37. Basically all that means is Dunn gets a bad break on a ball one game and his ERA takes what seems like a large dent because of it.

Yeah, that would do it. However, he already got hit by 12 pitches in 2007, so I'd say that's more likely to decrease than increase. Personally, I'd be pretty surprised if he posts an OBP over .330. Some hitters use the HBP as an offensive weapon, but I just don't think Phillips is one of those guys.

My $.02.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think it looks pretty good...I think Phillips will do better than you're giving him credit for. I think Dunn will do better than you've given him credit for and I think Votto will not do as well as you've stated. I think Gonzo will regress more than you've stated and I don't think Homer will perform quite as well as you either.

Other than that, not too many arugments from me.