As a whole, that's a pretty optimistic view of the Reds for '08-especially concerning the staff.
As a whole, that's a pretty optimistic view of the Reds for '08-especially concerning the staff.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Dunn .980 OPS 42 HR
Junior .822 OPS 20 HR (300 AB)
Votto .800 OPS 13 HR (400 AB)
Phillips .760 OPS 18 HR
Bruce .800 OPS 16 HR (300 AB)
Freel .720 OPS 5 HR (200 AB)
Ross .720 OPS 10 HR
Encarnacion .780 12 HR
Gonzalez .730 10 HR
Keppinger .765 5 HR
I pretty much agree with your take on Harang through Belisle. It's after that that you go off the deep end.
Volquez 150 IP 80 BB 120 K
Bailey 60 IP 30 BB 40 K (late callup)
Weathers 30 IP (injured)
Burton 40 IP 18 BB 30 K
Cueto 45 IP 10 25 K
Affeldt 120 IP 50 BB 70 K
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
So you think Edwin will post worse numbers then last year.
That's interesting.
Originally Posted by Scooter
I think this game's gotta lot of chaos built into it.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
You have Belisle and Affeldt with ERAs just above 4.50. Yet their WHIPs are, respectively, 1.45 and 1.49. The WHIPs are reasonable projections, but I think it is unlikely that they add up to ERAs in the mid 4s.
Belisle' WHIP is projected to be about the same as last year -- with an ERA improvement of about .8 runs per nine innings. I think this an unreasonable expectation. It would take incredible luck or incredible defense to slice almost a run per game with the same number of baserunners.
I expect the response that Belisle had bad luck last year. Maybe so, but if he allows 1.44 baserunners per nine, as you project, his ERA will not improve as dramatically as you project.
Similarly, if Affeldt allows 1.49 baserunners per nine, it is extremely optimistic that, pitching half his games in GABP, his ERA will be below 4.6.
If these WHIPs are accurate predictions, as they may well be, I think the resulting ERAs will be around 5.00 in each case, give or take a little.
Last edited by Kc61; 02-14-2008 at 10:01 PM.
That offense would be one of the best in baseball.
The Yankees last season had 6 guys who OPSed over .750 with over 300 ABs.
Doug's Reds have 9. Might be a little optomistic.
Belisle's numbers last year suggested a 4.54 ERA. All it would take is normal luck this year rather than the horrible luck he had last year.
Relief pitchers can get away with quite a bit with their WHIP and ERA.Similarly, if Affeldt allows 1.49 baserunners per nine, it is extremely optimistic that, pitching half his games in GABP, his ERA will be below 4.6.
Can ya teach the Reds relievers how to do that?
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Last years Reds who had a .750 OPS or higher with 200 at bats:
Adam Dunn
Ken Griffey JR
Brandon Phillips
Edwin Encarnacion
Alex Gonzalez
Jeff Keppinger
Scott Hatteberg
Norris Hopper
Josh Hamilton
Hamilton fell short of your 300 AB, by 2. Keppinger had 241 AB's. In this ballpark its not crazy to think its possible.
I'm not going to defend Doug's projection system, but the Red's had nine players with 298 AB's or more last season. With the exception of catcher David Ross, they all OPS'd over .750.
"...You just have a wider lens than one game."
--Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.
"...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
--Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.
How many wins do you think your projected Reds will net Doug?
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Can I? Probably not.Can ya teach the Reds relievers how to do that?
There are plenty of pitchers with 1.40-1.50 WHIPs and sub 5.00 ERA's.
Adam Wainwright - 1.40 WHIP - 3.70 ERA
Tom Gorzelanny - 1.40 WHIP - 3.88 ERA
Bronson Arroyo - 1.40 WHIP - 4.23 ERA
Doug Davis - 1.59 WHIP - 4.25 ERA
Tom Glavine - 1.41 WHIP - 4.45 ERA
Jeff Suppan - 1.50 WHIP - 4.62 ERA
Matt Chico - 1.54 WHIP - 4.63 ERA
Livan Hernandez - 1.60 WHIP - 4.93 ERA
Josh Fogg - 1.53 WHIP - 4.94 ERA
As far as the qualified starters go.
86 and finish in third place just behnd the Brewers and about 5-7 back of the Cubs.
The thought that Matt Belisle was unlucky last year is just conjecture. It's not proof yet it's spoken as truth.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Statistically speaking, he was VERY unlucky.
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