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Thread: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

  1. #16
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    As a whole, that's a pretty optimistic view of the Reds for '08-especially concerning the staff.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #17
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Dunn .980 OPS 42 HR
    Junior .822 OPS 20 HR (300 AB)
    Votto .800 OPS 13 HR (400 AB)
    Phillips .760 OPS 18 HR
    Bruce .800 OPS 16 HR (300 AB)
    Freel .720 OPS 5 HR (200 AB)
    Ross .720 OPS 10 HR
    Encarnacion .780 12 HR
    Gonzalez .730 10 HR
    Keppinger .765 5 HR

    I pretty much agree with your take on Harang through Belisle. It's after that that you go off the deep end.

    Volquez 150 IP 80 BB 120 K
    Bailey 60 IP 30 BB 40 K (late callup)
    Weathers 30 IP (injured)
    Burton 40 IP 18 BB 30 K
    Cueto 45 IP 10 25 K
    Affeldt 120 IP 50 BB 70 K

  4. #18
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    So you think Edwin will post worse numbers then last year.

    That's interesting.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  5. #19
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    So you think Edwin will post worse numbers then last year.

    That's interesting.
    I think this game's gotta lot of chaos built into it.

  6. #20
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    You have Belisle and Affeldt with ERAs just above 4.50. Yet their WHIPs are, respectively, 1.45 and 1.49. The WHIPs are reasonable projections, but I think it is unlikely that they add up to ERAs in the mid 4s.

    Belisle' WHIP is projected to be about the same as last year -- with an ERA improvement of about .8 runs per nine innings. I think this an unreasonable expectation. It would take incredible luck or incredible defense to slice almost a run per game with the same number of baserunners.

    I expect the response that Belisle had bad luck last year. Maybe so, but if he allows 1.44 baserunners per nine, as you project, his ERA will not improve as dramatically as you project.

    Similarly, if Affeldt allows 1.49 baserunners per nine, it is extremely optimistic that, pitching half his games in GABP, his ERA will be below 4.6.

    If these WHIPs are accurate predictions, as they may well be, I think the resulting ERAs will be around 5.00 in each case, give or take a little.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-14-2008 at 10:01 PM.

  7. #21
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    That offense would be one of the best in baseball.

    The Yankees last season had 6 guys who OPSed over .750 with over 300 ABs.

    Doug's Reds have 9. Might be a little optomistic.

  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    You have Belisle and Affeldt with ERAs just above 4.50. Yet their WHIPs are, respectively, 1.45 and 1.49. The WHIPs are reasonable projections, but I think it is unlikely that they add up to ERAs in the mid 4s.

    Belisle' WHIP is projected to be about the same as last year -- with an ERA improvement of about .8 runs per nine innings. I think this an unreasonable expectation. It would take incredible luck or incredible defense to slice almost a run per game with the same number of baserunners.
    Belisle's numbers last year suggested a 4.54 ERA. All it would take is normal luck this year rather than the horrible luck he had last year.

    Similarly, if Affeldt allows 1.49 baserunners per nine, it is extremely optimistic that, pitching half his games in GABP, his ERA will be below 4.6.
    Relief pitchers can get away with quite a bit with their WHIP and ERA.

  9. #23
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Relief pitchers can get away with quite a bit with their WHIP and ERA.
    Can ya teach the Reds relievers how to do that?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #24
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    That offense would be one of the best in baseball.

    The Yankees last season had 6 guys who OPSed over .750 with over 300 ABs.

    Doug's Reds have 9. Might be a little optomistic.
    Last years Reds who had a .750 OPS or higher with 200 at bats:

    Adam Dunn
    Ken Griffey JR
    Brandon Phillips
    Edwin Encarnacion
    Alex Gonzalez
    Jeff Keppinger
    Scott Hatteberg
    Norris Hopper
    Josh Hamilton

    Hamilton fell short of your 300 AB, by 2. Keppinger had 241 AB's. In this ballpark its not crazy to think its possible.

  11. #25
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The Yankees last season had 6 guys who OPSed over .750 with over 300 ABs.

    Doug's Reds have 9. Might be a little optomistic.
    I'm not going to defend Doug's projection system, but the Red's had nine players with 298 AB's or more last season. With the exception of catcher David Ross, they all OPS'd over .750.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  12. #26
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    How many wins do you think your projected Reds will net Doug?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #27
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Can ya teach the Reds relievers how to do that?
    Can I? Probably not.

    There are plenty of pitchers with 1.40-1.50 WHIPs and sub 5.00 ERA's.

    Adam Wainwright - 1.40 WHIP - 3.70 ERA
    Tom Gorzelanny - 1.40 WHIP - 3.88 ERA
    Bronson Arroyo - 1.40 WHIP - 4.23 ERA
    Doug Davis - 1.59 WHIP - 4.25 ERA
    Tom Glavine - 1.41 WHIP - 4.45 ERA
    Jeff Suppan - 1.50 WHIP - 4.62 ERA
    Matt Chico - 1.54 WHIP - 4.63 ERA
    Livan Hernandez - 1.60 WHIP - 4.93 ERA
    Josh Fogg - 1.53 WHIP - 4.94 ERA

    As far as the qualified starters go.

  14. #28
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    How many wins do you think your projected Reds will net Doug?
    86 and finish in third place just behnd the Brewers and about 5-7 back of the Cubs.

  15. #29
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    The thought that Matt Belisle was unlucky last year is just conjecture. It's not proof yet it's spoken as truth.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    The thought that Matt Belisle was unlucky last year is just conjecture. It's not proof yet it's spoken as truth.
    Statistically speaking, he was VERY unlucky.


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