Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

[SteelSD]

You have Belisle and Affeldt with ERAs just above 4.50. Yet their WHIPs are, respectively, 1.45 and 1.49. The WHIPs are reasonable projections, but I think it is unlikely that they add up to ERAs in the mid 4s.

Belisle' WHIP is projected to be about the same as last year -- with an ERA improvement of about .8 runs per nine innings. I think this an unreasonable expectation. It would take incredible luck or incredible defense to slice almost a run per game with the same number of baserunners.

I expect the response that Belisle had bad luck last year. Maybe so, but if he allows 1.44 baserunners per nine, as you project, his ERA will not improve as dramatically as you project.

Similarly, if Affeldt allows 1.49 baserunners per nine, it is extremely optimistic that, pitching half his games in GABP, his ERA will be below 4.6.

If these WHIPs are accurate predictions, as they may well be, I think the resulting ERAs will be around 5.00 in each case, give or take a little.

Good catch, especially when coupled with the HR rates doug listed for some of those players:

Player	IP	HR	HR/9	BB	BB/9	WHIP	ERA
Bailey	140	17	1.09	53	3.41	1.26	4.31
Volquez	180	24	1.20	75	3.75	1.40	4.45
Cueto	35	6	1.54	10	2.57	1.25	4.63
Affeldt	85	11	1.16	37	3.92	1.49	4.55

Here's the list of 2007 NL ERA qualifiers who posted the following:

1. < 5.00 ERA
2. =/> 1.40 WHIP
3. =/> 1.16 HR/9

Bronson Arroyo
Matt Chico
Livan Hernandez
Josh Fogg

Now, their respective DIPS/FIP ERA's:

Arroyo: 4.34 DIPS/4.51 FIP
Chico: 5.37/5.53 FIP
Livan Hernandez: 5.62/5.78 FIP
Josh Fogg: 4.94/5.12 FIP

Apparently, we're expecting both Volquez and Affeldt to be Arroyo rather than what we more reasonably should expect (your astute observation of a likely 5.00+ ERA). Yet Arroyo only got away with those D-independent numbers due to a BB rate of 2.69 per 9 IP (far lower than doug is projecting for either pitcher). Secondly, there's no way that Cueto is likely to get away with an ERA of only 4.63 if he's allowing 1.54 HR per 9 Innings. That's pure fantasy.

And I left Bailey up there as a great case study of what happens when we get all starry-eyed about prospects. Bailey's going to be only 22 years old this May. doug is projecting a BB/9 rate of 3.41 for him, but we need to realize that the last time Bailey produced a BB/9 rate that low was in Sarasota. His career MiLB BB/9 rate is 4.23 yet, in his first full season in the Show, do we really expect him to walk nearly a full hitter per nine fewer?

A good number of those ERA projections are unrealistic considering the peripherals doug is suggesting. It's not that I don't wish every season that the Reds' pitching was going to get incredibly lucky all at the same time, but I get back to reality pretty quickly.

[dougdirt]

Steel, here are the DIPS for the players in question:

Cueto 4.67
Bailey 4.18
Volquez 4.32
Affeldt 4.50

So how are the ERA's unrealistic considering the peripherals?

[jojo]

Steel, here are the DIPS for the players in question:

Cueto 4.67
Bailey 4.18
Volquez 4.32
Affeldt 4.50

So how are the ERA's unrealistic considering the peripherals?

The Reds defense?

[SteelSD]

Steel, here are the DIPS for the players in question:

Cueto 4.67
Bailey 4.18
Volquez 4.32
Affeldt 4.50

So how are the ERA's unrealistic considering the peripherals?

The numbers in your post aren't 2007 MLB seasonal historicals, so what is the source? Are they actually DIPS ERA numbers or something else?

The peripherals you posted appear to be your own construct. Unfortunately, they don't match reasonable projections for ERA, nor do some of them (particularly Bailey's BB/9 rate) match peripherals we could most reasonably expect.

I'm not unwilling to consider valid data you may have, but at this point you're going to need to either show your source(s) or show your work.

[dougdirt]

The numbers in your post aren't 2007 MLB seasonal historicals, so what is the source? Are they actually DIPS ERA numbers or something else?

The peripherals you posted appear to be your own construct. Unfortunately, they don't match reasonable projections for ERA, nor do some of them (particularly Bailey's BB/9 rate) match peripherals we could most reasonably expect.

I'm not unwilling to consider valid data you may have, but at this point you're going to need to either show your source(s) or show your work.

Well a quick and dirty way to get DIPS I use this formula in my spreadsheet:
((IP*2.35)+(H*.805)+(HR*10.76)+(BB*2.76)-(K*1.53)) Divided by (IP*0.712)+(H*0.244)+(K*0.096)-(HR*0.244).

Using the numbers I came up with, those were the DIPS ERA numbers for the players listed.

As far as Baileys walk rate (3.40 per 9ip), I don't think its anywhere 'out of expectation' if you expect some improvement (which I do). If you expect him to have no growth as a pitcher, then sure it may be a little low.

[SteelSD]

Well a quick and dirty way to get DIPS I use this formula in my spreadsheet:
((IP*2.35)+(H*.805)+(HR*10.76)+(BB*2.76)-(K*1.53)) Divided by (IP*0.712)+(H*0.244)+(K*0.096)-(HR*0.244).

Using the numbers I came up with, those were the DIPS ERA numbers for the players listed.

As far as Baileys walk rate (3.40 per 9ip), I don't think its anywhere 'out of expectation' if you expect some improvement (which I do). If you expect him to have no growth as a pitcher, then sure it may be a little low.

So the DIPS rates you just gave me are based on a "quick-and-dirty" formula based on your own arbitrary expectations for each pitcher?

Do you understand the issues involved with that kind of haphazard methodology?

[WVRedsFan]

Interesting. And I also noiticed neither of our star relievers we got from Washington were listed. any reason for that?

[dougdirt]

So the DIPS rates you just gave me are based on a "quick-and-dirty" formula based on your own arbitrary expectations for each pitcher?

Do you understand the issues involved with that kind of haphazard methodology?

Well without me having total batters faced, its pretty tough to get DIPS.
Real DIPS and the quick and dirty DIPS are pretty close and you are trying to bust my chops for it because its not perfect?

The Real DIPS and the q&d DIPS from last years Reds were
Harang - 3.55 and 3.58
Arroyo - 4.33 and 4.28
Belisle - 4.34 and 4.33

You are making it out as if the quick and dirty way is something I am just pulling out of my butt here. Are they perfectly 100% accurate? No. Are they about 99% accurate, yes.

[dougdirt]

Interesting. And I also noiticed neither of our star relievers we got from Washington were listed. any reason for that?

I left out basically everyone who I think is actually fighting for a chance to break with the big league club in the bullpen, because there are legitimately 10 pitchers vying for 3 or 4 spots, so I just stuck with the guys who I believe are automatic.

[Cedric]

Thanks for the time Doug. I'm glad you put the time on the minor league site and I'm also glad you half a glass half full approach to the Reds. That's fun and refreshing

[icehole3]

Doug, Im usually drinking your koolaid, but dont you think someone will have a bad season...someone???

[*BaseClogger*]

optimistic...check
in-line with most projection system's optimistic projections...check
good job by Doug...check

[SteelSD]

Well without me having total batters faced, its pretty tough to get DIPS.
Real DIPS and the quick and dirty DIPS are pretty close and you are trying to bust my chops for it because its not perfect?

You're the one who started a thread, posted your numbers, and then asked for comments.

Your peripherals are wonky. Doesn't matter if they translate into a simple form of DIPS ERA because you're not "projecting" DIPS ERA. You're projecting ERA.

And in some cases, you're not even producing what I'd consider to be a "projection". Take, for example, Matt Belisle. All you've apparently done is determine his 2007 per-IP rate stats across the board and then translated them to 185 Innings Pitched. And then you slapped a 4.57 ERA on him without realizing that you also saddled Belisle with the same .336 BABIP he had last season. The problem is that you can't really make that 4.57 ERA work unless Belisle's BABIP normalizes to a more reasonable average number.

Next, take a look at Homer Bailey. You're expecting a 7.71 K/9 rate, but you've got him with 16 fewer Hits than IP over 140 Innings. That 7.97 H/9 rate translates to 177 Hits over 200 IP. Taking a gander at 200 IP MLB starters last season, we find the following who produced H/9 rates </= 8.00:

Matt Cain
Brandon Webb
Johan Santana
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly

Now let's exclude the players on that list who produced K rates higher than 7.71 per 9 IP. We're left with:

Matt Cain
Brandon Webb
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly

Now let's exclude the players on that list who saw lower than average BABIP's in 2007. We're now left with:

...

Yeah. No one. The closest guy is Brandon Webb (8.00 H/9, 7.40 K/9, .291 BABIP), but his ability to suppress H/9 rate is mainly due to his extreme ability to suppress HR rates; something you're not expecting for Bailey in your peripherals. Webb also may have a very very rare ability to suppress Line Drive rates and that kind of "outlier" status is most certainly something we cannot expect for Bailey.

There's pretty much no way Bailey can get to that Hit rate projection with a K rate that low and a HR/9 rate over 1.00 without a significantly suppressed BABIP. Yet Bailey will be pitching in front of a substandard defense to begin with.

Yes, you can slap some peripherals together in order to get psuedo-DIPS rates to work out, but you're not really understanding the not-so-subtle synergies between the peripherals or how ERA projections only correlate to DIPS rates if certain things are normalized.

[REDREAD]

I hope you're right. I agree, we win the division with those numbers.

Sadly, I think we will end up with at least 3 pitchers on that list with an ERA north of 5.

The hitting projections are optimistic, but possible

[dougdirt]

You're the one who started a thread, posted your numbers, and then asked for comments.

Your peripherals are wonky. Doesn't matter if they translate into a simple form of DIPS ERA because you're not "projecting" DIPS ERA. You're projecting ERA.

And in some cases, you're not even producing what I'd consider to be a "projection". Take, for example, Matt Belisle. All you've apparently done is determine his 2007 per-IP rate stats across the board and then translated them to 185 Innings Pitched. And then you slapped a 4.57 ERA on him without realizing that you also saddled Belisle with the same .336 BABIP he had last season. The problem is that you can't really make that 4.57 ERA work unless Belisle's BABIP normalizes to a more reasonable average number.

Next, take a look at Homer Bailey. You're expecting a 7.71 K/9 rate, but you've got him with 16 fewer Hits than IP over 140 Innings. That 7.97 H/9 rate translates to 177 Hits over 200 IP. Taking a gander at 200 IP MLB starters last season, we find the following who produced H/9 rates </= 8.00:

Matt Cain
Brandon Webb
Johan Santana
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly

Now let's exclude the players on that list who produced K rates higher than 7.71 per 9 IP. We're left with:

Matt Cain
Brandon Webb
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly

Now let's exclude the players on that list who saw lower than average BABIP's in 2007. We're now left with:

...

Yeah. No one. The closest guy is Brandon Webb (8.00 H/9, 7.40 K/9, .291 BABIP), but his ability to suppress H/9 rate is mainly due to his extreme ability to suppress HR rates; something you're not expecting for Bailey in your peripherals. Webb also may have a very very rare ability to suppress Line Drive rates and that kind of "outlier" status is most certainly something we cannot expect for Bailey.

There's pretty much no way Bailey can get to that Hit rate projection with a K rate that low and a HR/9 rate over 1.00 without a significantly suppressed BABIP. Yet Bailey will be pitching in front of a substandard defense to begin with.

Yes, you can slap some peripherals together in order to get psuedo-DIPS rates to work out, but you're not really understanding the not-so-subtle synergies between the peripherals or how ERA projections only correlate to DIPS rates if certain things are normalized.

Well I have some good news, the numbers Belisle is showing is incorrect. He is actually giving up 210 hits, not 220 but I can't type so well apparently. The rest of his numbers are right though.

As for Bailey's numbers as if they are some crazy historical outlier or something.
Here are some similar numbers that I happened to find:

Player	          IP	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Homer Bailey	140	7.97	3.41	7.71	1.09	4.31	1.26
Jerermy Affeldt	126	9	2.71	6.79	0.86	3.93	1.30
Josh Beckett	142	8.37	3.55	9.63	0.57	3.04	1.32
Roy Halladay	133	9.47	2.64	6.43	0.88	4.20	1.35
Jerome Williams	131	7.97	3.37	6.04	0.69	3.30	1.26
Brad Penny	143	8.18	2.83	6.98	0.76	3.15	1.22
Kerry Wood	140.1	8.14	3.27	9.24	1.03	3.72	1.27

Those were just in a sampling between 2003 and 2004. Are those guys numbers out of whack too? Bailey has far and away the higher ERA of the bunch, his HR rate is the highest as well, but his k rate is third highest and walk rate is pretty in line with the others while his hit rate it pretty close with most of the group.