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Thread: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

  1. #46
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Doug, last year the Reds had 6 pitchers with ERAs better than 4.9 -- who pitched a total of 626 innings.

    You project that this year the Reds will have 10 pitchers with ERAs better than 4.9 -- and you project them to pitch 1242 innings, just about double.

    That would be a remarkable improvement.

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  3. #47
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Doug, last year the Reds had 6 pitchers with ERAs better than 4.9 -- who pitched a total of 626 innings.

    You project that this year the Reds will have 10 pitchers with ERAs better than 4.9 -- and you project them to pitch 1242 innings, just about double.

    That would be a remarkable improvement.
    Its going to come from the starting pitching mostly, who I feel (and others) are going to break out so to say.

    The amount of pitching talent that we are going into the year with compared to previous years, well.... its not even close.

  4. #48
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Its going to come from the starting pitching mostly, who I feel (and others) are going to break out so to say.

    The amount of pitching talent that we are going into the year with compared to previous years, well.... its not even close.
    And do I understand that, with 210 hits, you are projecting Belisle's WHIP to be 1.39 rather than 1.45?

  5. #49
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    And do I understand that, with 210 hits, you are projecting Belisle's WHIP to be 1.39 rather than 1.45?
    Yes, I fixed that and the new numbers are up with Belisles being fixed.

  6. #50
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes, I fixed that and the new numbers are up with Belisles being fixed.
    My rule of thumb is that a starter shouldn't have a WHIP above 1.40. And a reliever shouldn't have a WHIP above 1.30. To me these ratios roughly tend to correspond with success.

    If Belisle can achieve a 1.39 WHIP pitching 185 innings, he will have shown significant improvement, whether by increased skill or by luck and his ERA should come down well below 5. Hopefully you are right.

  7. #51
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    I have a little formula that I use to gauge future projections of my own that I will tweak every now and again when the numbers don't really match up with what my brain thinks they will bare out to be.
    There's just so many things wrong with this statement.

    I understand trial and error, and testing a hypothesis (in this case, projections), but tweaking a formula/equation to yield the results you want/think should happen is just bad statistics/gathering of information.

    Sometimes we don't like the results we get from a formula/equation, but the results are accurate or realistic. We just have to accept that, and move on. Modifying the formula/equation to favor your desired results is... well.... wow.

  8. #52
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Doug, did you run these projections last year? If you have, would you mind sharing them?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #53
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Modifying the formula/equation to favor your desired results is... well.... wow.
    Dare I say .... It's MAGIC!!!

  10. #54
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    There's just so many things wrong with this statement.

    I understand trial and error, and testing a hypothesis (in this case, projections), but tweaking a formula/equation to yield the results you want/think should happen is just bad statistics/gathering of information.

    Sometimes we don't like the results we get from a formula/equation, but the results are accurate or realistic. We just have to accept that, and move on. Modifying the formula/equation to favor your desired results is... well.... wow.
    Well when you run statistical formula's they don't take into account things such as injuries, new playing time, new ballparks (sometimes although you can correct that to a point) or even someone having a poor first half and coming on very strong in the second half to only yield a 'meh' type season. There are always tweaks that need to be made based on those types of situations.

  11. #55
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Doug, did you run these projections last year? If you have, would you mind sharing them?
    I did, but I had them on my old hard drive that went kapoot and I can't track them down online anywhere....

  12. #56
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well when you run statistical formula's they don't take into account things such as injuries, new playing time, new ballparks (sometimes although you can correct that to a point) or even someone having a poor first half and coming on very strong in the second half to only yield a 'meh' type season. There are always tweaks that need to be made based on those types of situations.
    I'm curious about how you derived your projections. What assumptions/methodology did ya use?

    I'll take my answer over the air.

    BTW, your minor league site seems to be down.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #57
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    My server is not too happy with me right now... so here is the text version.

    Code:
    Player	        AB	H	HR	AVG	OBP	 SLG	 OPS
    Adam Dunn	570	145	38	0.254	.370	.504	.874
    Ken Griffey Jr	440	121	26	0.275	.359	.498	.857
    Jay Bruce	450	122	23	0.271	.330	.491	.821
    Norris Hopper	250	78	0	0.312	.355	.352	.707
    Ryan Freel	230	61	3	0.265	.340	.387	.727
    Joey Votto	475	140	26	0.295	.360	.512	.872
    B Phillips	595	164	24	0.276	.335	.451	.786
    Alex Gonzalez	515	140	19	0.272	.325	.446	.771
    Ed Encarnacion	540	157	26	0.291	.365	.498	.863
    Jeff Keppinger	380	120	9	0.316	.360	.455	.815
    Scott Hatteberg	120	33	3	0.275	.345	.417	.762
    David Ross	350	86	19	0.246	.322	.460	.782
    Javier Valentin	265	71	9	0.268	.330	.423	.753
    
    Player	        IP	H	BB	K	HR	ERA	WHIP
    Aaron Harang	230	215	52	210	27	3.64	1.16
    Bronson Arroyo	210	228	55	145	30	4.20	1.35
    Matt Belisle	185	210	48	132	27	4.57	1.39
    Edinson Volquez	180	178	75	162	24	4.45	1.40
    Homer Bailey	140	124	53	120	17	4.31	1.26
    Johnny Cueto	35	34	10	27	6	4.63	1.25
    Jeremy Affeldt	85	90	37	68	11	4.55	1.49
    Jared Burton	68	57	30	63	5	3.70	1.28
    David Weathers	75	69	30	50	9	4.08	1.32
    Fra Cordero	75	65	27	84	7	3.24	1.23

  14. #58
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm curious about how you derived your projections. What assumptions/methodology did ya use?

    I'll take my answer over the air.

    BTW, your minor league site seems to be down.
    Its based around past performance, age, trends, upside, first half versus second half performances as well as special tweaking by me in cases like Bailey with the injuries, Edwin with Narron jerking him around big time, Gonzo and his family situations.

    As for my site.... its causing me a headache today... 'they are working on it and appreciate my patience'. So far in my three weeks with the company, I am not to thrilled with their reliability.

  15. #59
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    who is the host doug?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #60
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    Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    As for Bailey's numbers as if they are some crazy historical outlier or something.

    Here are some similar numbers that I happened to find:
    Code:
    Player	          IP	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
    Homer Bailey	140	7.97	3.41	7.71	1.09	4.31	1.26
    Jerermy Affeldt	126	9	2.71	6.79	0.86	3.93	1.30
    Josh Beckett	142	8.37	3.55	9.63	0.57	3.04	1.32
    Roy Halladay	133	9.47	2.64	6.43	0.88	4.20	1.35
    Jerome Williams	131	7.97	3.37	6.04	0.69	3.30	1.26
    Brad Penny	143	8.18	2.83	6.98	0.76	3.15	1.22
    Kerry Wood	140.1	8.14	3.27	9.24	1.03	3.72	1.27
    Those were just in a sampling between 2003 and 2004. Are those guys numbers out of whack too?
    Well, first you have to exclude the two guys with K rates above 9.00 (Beckett and Wood) as at that level, it's more reasonable to expect H/9 rates below 8.00 or 9.00. I already noted that so I'm not sure why you'd include them.

    Then we've got one guy (Halladay) who doesn't fit the sample at all with a H/9 rate of 9.47. He's gone too. So is Affeldt because we're need to be looking at a sample of 8.00 H/9 or less. Only Jerome Williams actually fits that profile (albeit with a lower K rate), but for fun let's take a look at Brad Penny as well:

    2004 Jerome Williams: .279 BABIP
    2004 Brad Penny (FLA): .296 BABIP

    The low Hit/9 rates for both pitchers are a combination of BABIP luck and HR rates below 1.00. You don't expect Bailey's HR rate to be below 1.00, so the only way he can produce the Hit rate you expect with those peripherals is BABIP luck with a sub-par defense behind him.

    So yeah, when you see a guy with a Hit/9 rate at or under 8.00 who also boast a HR/9 rate above 1.00 and a K/9 rate below 8.00, you can pretty much guarantee he's an outlier driven by a lower than average BABIP.

    Bailey has far and away the higher ERA of the bunch, his HR rate is the highest as well, but his k rate is third highest and walk rate is pretty in line with the others while his hit rate it pretty close with most of the group.
    Nope. I'm sure you didn't mean to do it, but the only way Bailey is likely to produce the ERA you expect with those peripherals is if he's BABIP-lucky.

    There's a better way to do this, doug. And it means starting with the "trifecta" comps (HR/9, K/9, BB/9) and then reverse-engineering the projections to fit by normalizing for league, park, and defense. You also have to exclude Hits/9 and WHIP as starting points as they'd only be a result of such an endeavor rather than a driver of anything.

    Oh, and much as it may pain you to hear this, if a pitcher has a history of high BB/9 rates, an analysis will suffer unless you're actually pessimistic about that- especially for young pitchers with a history of high BB rates during their first long-term exposure in the Show. Considering Bailey's 2007 BB rate issues and a career MiLB 4.23 BB/9 rate, a projection of 4.50 BB/9 for 2008 would be a lot more acceptable from a realism standpoint than your expectation of an evolutionary leap forward.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams


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