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Thread: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

  1. #31
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Ahhhorsepoo View Post
    i sure hope dunn isnt next.. let him walk if you cant get anything for a trade for him..
    This thread is not about Adam Dunn. Everyone knows you don't like Adam Dunn. Very few of us really care. Please start discussiing Phillips or go post about Dunn on a different thread.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    5th year is 12 million if the reds dont trade him according to reds.com

  4. #33
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    It's great to have some actual baseball news, as opposed to the Roger Clemens junk.

    Of course, I'm sure Keith Law will hate the move
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  5. #34
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    This thread is not about Adam Dunn. Everyone knows you don't like Adam Dunn. Very few of us really care. Please start discussiing Phillips or go post about Dunn on a different thread.
    cut on me because i was responding to someone else who wanted dunn to get one.. that makes sense.. you are a real class act..

  6. #35
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    I don't think teams would pay Dunn 20M a year. I could see a Hunter type deal around 18-19M, but I think he would end up in the 17-18M range for 4 years. Maybe the Yanks sign him to DH now that Giambi is gone. They're paying Giambi 21M next year to be a part time DHer. Obviously Dunn at 18M is a much better option. Dunn is almost garenteed to become an AL player.

    Dunn probably would give the Reds a discount, probably resulting in a 4/65 type contract, but I wouldn't do it. Dunn is worth 16-18M now, but his old player skills projected an early and quick decline.

  7. #36
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by XU Lou View Post
    I just looked that up.

    Does that mean the option year is $16.25 Million?
    Yea I don't know what the point of even including that option year is. What are the odds that Phillips in 5 years is worth $16.25 million? 10 to 1? 25 to 1?

    I'll be a dissenting opinion and say I'm not all that thrilled about the contract. These are my guesses for the arb contracts he would have gotten if he kept producing:
    07: $4.2M (or $2.7M if he would have lost his case)
    08: $6M
    09: $8M

    That would total $18M or so, which means we are paying for all of that plus covering his first year of free agency at $9M. If Phillips keeps playing like he did in 2007 for the length of this contract, it's a solid deal and we probably saved a little bit of money. If he drops off, then we just committed a lot of money that could have gone to something else. I think people view these signings compared to the money free agents are getting. Phillips at 4 yr / $27M on the open market would be a pretty good deal. It's different though when we already control him.

    In the end though I can't really be upset about this, as BP is a good player and now we have him for one more year than we did before. I just think we paid a little too much.

  8. #37
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Yea I don't know what the point of even including that option year is. What are the odds that Phillips in 5 years is worth $16.25 million? 10 to 1? 25 to 1?

    I'll be a dissenting opinion and say I'm not all that thrilled about the contract. These are my guesses for the arb contracts he would have gotten if he kept producing:
    07: $4.2M (or $2.7M if he would have lost his case)
    08: $6M
    09: $8M

    That would total $18M or so, which means we are paying for all of that plus covering his first year of free agency at $9M. If Phillips keeps playing like he did in 2007 for the length of this contract, it's a solid deal and we probably saved a little bit of money. If he drops off, then we just committed a lot of money that could have gone to something else. I think people view these signings compared to the money free agents are getting. Phillips at 4 yr / $27M on the open market would be a pretty good deal. It's different though when we already control him.

    In the end though I can't really be upset about this, as BP is a good player and now we have him for one more year than we did before. I just think we paid a little too much.
    Moot point. The 5th option year is for 12M.

  9. #38
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Ahhhorsepoo View Post
    cut on me because i was responding to someone else who wanted dunn to get one.. that makes sense.. you are a real class act..
    OK I went back and looked. One person wrote one sentence about Dunn earlier in the thread. It was "surprising Phillips got an LTC before Dunn". Nobody said anything about how Dunn needs an LTC, or tried to start a debate about Dunn getting an LTC. There were no positive or negative statements about Adam Dunn until yours.

    I apologize for my tone before but Dunn's positives and negatives have been discussed a million times before, with you as a central part of those debates. We don't need it to happen again on this thread, especially since the Phillips extension is pretty big news.

  10. #39
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Bip Roberts View Post
    5th year is 12 million if the reds dont trade him according to reds.com
    I think I can live with that.

    Makes it probably 5 years and ~$40M (or less) overall - since I assume the 4 yr $27M deal includes a $2M or so buy-out for the 5th year.

    That's cheaper than Cano across the board, as it should be - and some (not me) would argue that Cano's should be cheaper because it includes option years versus BP's include FA years.

    IMO, they are comps, with Cano being the better of the comps, by a considerable margin.

    In this case, we're only talking about $3M over 4 years so I'm not jumping for joy, but Cano's option years are capped at higher numbers than BP's - 14M v 12M in 2012. The Yanks also hold a 6th years option for Cano in 2013 for $15M, that is unnecessary for BP IMO, because I don't see BP's bat or glove keeping up with his aging 5 years from now.

    At least it's not MORE than Cano's contract.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

  11. #40
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Moot point. The 5th option year is for 12M.
    OK good, that makes me like the deal a little more. Everything I posted after the first sentence though is not at all moot.

  12. #41
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    I'd like to point out, I basically predicted the value of this contract 2 weeks ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by mlbfan30 View Post
    When did I say 1/2 a win = 10M?

    Cano is getting 4 controlled years for 30M plus 2 options at 13M and 15M

    BP at 4 years at 30M means 3 controlled year + a year of FA. That extra year in FA makes up the difference in production value. It's equivelent to Cano's 13M option.

    Cano will make 5M next year, so in terms of a 3 year deal for BP it's a 3/25 or about 8M a year. That is somewhat high, but comparable.

    If you make a 4 year deal for BP, buying out a FA year, thats a 4/38 type deal. Meaning that's what Cano get's for those same years of service.

    If we gave BP a 4/30 deal, it would be about 2M per year less than what Cano would be getting, so a similar deal to BP is reasonable. BP isn't as good offensively and will be on the decline, but is better defensively. It would be a very reasonable move.

    Does this make sense to you people? Arb years and FA matter when discussing contracts.
    If we assume a 2M buyout, then I was off by only 1M. Cano has a 15M option for his 2nd FA year, while BP had a 12M option. These contracts are similar and both very reasonable. However I would take the Cano contract because of the options and it makes him easier to trade.

  13. #42
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Great move !

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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    “I wanted a contract that would keep with the Reds for a long time,” he said. “This is the one team I want to play for. I don’t want to be with nobody else.

    "The Reds gave me a second chance,” he said. “They opened up the door for me. The fans welcomed me with open arms. I want to make sure I give back to them. I want to do community service. I want to give back to the community. I’m going to do many things in the city. I’m going to go to certain places and try to find me a field. I want people to know who I am. I want to bring more people to the stadium. I want to be how Barry Larkin was."
    Hard not to like his attitude

  15. #44
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Bip Roberts View Post
    Hard not to like his attitude
    Yep, we can all agree on that. I don't know what happened between here and Cleveland but he seems like a great guy to have representing your franchise.

  16. #45
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    Re: Per Hal, Phillips and Reds agree on long term deal

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Yep, we can all agree on that. I don't know what happened between here and Cleveland but he seems like a great guy to have representing your franchise.
    In his words they tried to turn him into a player he couldnt become and dubbed him to be uncoachable. I think thats kinda true about all players though.


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