Question for everybody: If Phillips hits .280/.330/.450, trading 80 of those HR for 2B, do you still consider him a star?
I like the guy and considering his defense and thrilled to have him, I just don't like this trend of signing guys to long term deals right after a career best year. I think we saw the upper end of what Phillips can do and while I think he merits a deal, I'm wary of expectations.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Really not much of a risk with the length given. He's not going to go anywhere soon and he actually has had two years with similar numbers.Originally Posted by RedsManRick
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Phillips is at the point where he could start developing old-player skills and learning to lay off low-and-away sliders. I don't think he's reached his ceiling yet. Jimmy Rollins is probably a good comparison for him.
I'm also a huge fan of signing players through their arb years.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
David Ross says
And "Thanks" to Krivsky.
Good news.
And the elephant that is Adam Dunn hovers more massively by the second.
There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
You're not talking about 2006 and 2007 are you?
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+
2006 - .276/.324/.427/.751/88
2007 - .288/.331/.485/.816/105
He took a rather significant jump in 2007 driven mostly by a bump in power. Here's to hoping he can keep it up.
Hard to compare the contracts. Ross gets 2 years of about $5M total or so (don't remember). He would have gotten that in arbitration anyway.David Ross says
And "Thanks" to Krivsky.
I agree, he is at the point where he could start developing his skills. The whole idea of arbitration is that we don't have to bet $30M+ on whether or not he does. Maybe I'm overly risk averse, but I want to see signs that those skills are ready to develop before I pay them.
The risk of not signing him is that he does continue to improve, and that and costs you more money over the long haul than locking him up early would have.
The risk of signing him is that he doesn't develop further, or he regresses, and you're on the hook for a level of production you never get.
Teams rarely get themselves in trouble for paying fair value for production. They get in trouble for paying too much for poor production. For a guy with one above average season and a few real holes in his game (big platoon split, low OBP), I'm quite hesitant to project out the next 3, 4, or more years and commit financially to his ongoing improvement, when he can control him without the fiscal guarantee. We really give up a lot of flexibility for the sake of cost certainty and a shot at a bargain.
However, it really comes down to the dollars. If you get a fairly substantial discount and the years aren't too many, then I think it's still a good risk to take. I'm hoping for something like:
'08: $4.5M
'09: $6.5M
'10: $9.0M
'11: $11.0M - Team Option
I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Just thinking that Robbie Cano might not be a bad contract comp. He just signed a 4 year deal this offseason, as a super-two guy.
08:$3M
09:$6M
10:$9M
11:$10M
12:$14M club option ($2M buyout)
13:$15M club option ($2M buyout)
Phillips is at 3 full years of service time, but I'm pretty sure that super-two guys and 3rd year guys are treated exactly the same in terms of comps. Robbie Cano is 25, where as Phillips is 27. With the buyout in 2012 included, Cano got 4/30. I think a Phillips contract would be quite similar.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
The Enquirer finally has it.
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...T04/302150042/
... and the best photo they have is a swing and a miss from Phillips. Who is in charge of this kind of stuff. Do they have the Lifestyle editor picking out the photos or is that the only one they have?
I used to be in that camp.
Now that I've been in charge of supervising people for a while, though, I'm switching around to the other side of the argument.
Incentives come in many different sizes and shapes. Take away the incentives to perform, and you often see things like content, happy with the status quo, good enough, and a little too comfortable creeping into the equation.
Once the carrots are gone from the end of the stick, the only other options the jockey has are to yell more and/or use the whip more.
Good catch. Moronic.
Fair points, but a smaller market team, in order to keep key players in their prime, has to be able to identify which players deserve carrots and which ones need sticks.
For instance, no one should ever give Kyle Lohse a long-term deal. His pulse wouldn't even register if he isn't pitching for next year's contract.
Yet Phillips, Harang, Arroyo and Dunn all strike me as highly-motivated players. They push themselves. I don't worry about any of those guys losing their edge because they've no longer got the next contract to motivate them. Though, in baseball, even with a LTC there's usually another contract over the horizon (even for Jr.). Keep playing well and you can go from being set for life to having your great grandchildren set for life.
Phillips in particular strikes me as a guy who wants the responsibility of team leadership and who'll treat a LTC like a gauntlet rather than a reward.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Wheres those opposed to this deal at?
I love how everyone loves this deal.. because when it was brought up before their were those who were miffed at the idea of signing Phillips long term as he still had arbitration years left.
Frankly it was nuts not to lock this kid up. He is the happiest player the Reds have and he plays with every emotion. By the numbers he is going to be an All-Star if he continues doing the things he is doing and he is going to win Gold Gloves. He is truly a joy to watch and he is at all the Reds functions whether it be RedsFest or the Caravan or whatever. He is a great player on and off the field and I'm proud of the organization locking him up long term.
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