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Thread: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Pecota predicts the '08 Reds to finish in third at 79-83. They're projected to be 10 back of the Cubs and 8 back of the Brew crew. Pecota thinks the Mets are the cream of the NL.

    Pecota's projection for the NL central isn't too far out of line with a recent Diamond Mind projection that was published on the Replacement Level Yankees weblog.

    These two projections suggest the Reds still have quite a bit of work to do (i.e. they still need to find 10 additional wins-100 runs-somewhere).

    Comments, thoughts, arguments?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    I hope you don't mind I comment on something outside of the NL Central-did you see the AL West!? The A's second, Rangers third, and Mariners FOURTH! Way to go A's, and as for the Mariners, I guess Bedard won't put them over the hump. Alwell, these are just projections. We all know how that silly projection for the White Sox (72-90) went last year ...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Are you trying to give jojo a coronary, baseclogger?

    The M's are his team.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I hope you don't mind I comment on something outside of the NL Central-did you see the AL West!? The A's second, Rangers third, and Mariners FOURTH! Way to go A's, and as for the Mariners, I guess Bedard won't put them over the hump. Alwell, these are just projections. We all know how that silly projection for the White Sox (72-90) went last year ...
    A lot of people might be surprised by the As this season. A lot of people might be surprised by the Ms too (pitching, pitching, pitching.....what?).

    A lot of people might also by surprised by the Rays as well. Not me though. Just bought a Tampa jersey.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    A lot of people might be surprised by the As this season. A lot of people might be surprised by the Ms too (pitching, pitching, pitching.....what?).

    A lot of people might also by surprised by the Rays as well. Not me though. Just bought a Tampa jersey.
    I wouldn't mind buying a James Shields jersey. I love the way he pitches. Oh yeah, and he carried my fantasy baseball team last year
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    Are you trying to give jojo a coronary, baseclogger?

    The M's are his team.
    I have a hard time seeing where the runs will come from too....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    What did PECOTA project for the Reds last season?

    And are there percentiles for like what our ceiling is as far as wins and what our floor is?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I wouldn't mind buying a James Shields jersey. I love the way he pitches. Oh yeah, and he carried my fantasy baseball team last year
    I love the underdog so this should be a fun season.

    The Ms need a miracle, the Reds just need lots of things to go right and my guilty pleasure in the AL east just needs to not be eliminated before labor day for a moral victory.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I have a hard time seeing where the runs will come from too....
    GIVE US KING FELIX!!!!!!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    I think that's a pretty fair projection, overall.

    I'm not sure though I see the Brew Crew winning 87 games, though I do think they'll finish ahead of the Reds. Am I alone here?

    And Jojo, since you're a big stat guy, if the Reds somehow landed Blanton, how many wins would he be worth to the team? I'm assuming not enough...but just for the sake of curiosity.

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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    I know this is a .500 team at best, so 79 wins is a fair estimate.

    IMO, they are only a 75 win team.



    Still too many pitching questions marks, and the offense isn't as good as advertised.

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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    What did PECOTA project for the Reds last season?
    Pecota projected the '07 Reds to be 71-91.

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    And are there percentiles for like what our ceiling is as far as wins and what our floor is?
    The diamond mind projection comes with a +/- 7 win guarantee. Nate Silver doesn't report a margin I'll assume because BP's projections are based upon Pecota weighted means. When the Pecota cards come out you can get an appreciation for the spread in individual player projections.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    The Brewers always seem to do better in the preseason polls than they finish up with.

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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Pecota projected the '07 Reds to be 71-91.

    The diamond mind projection comes with a +/- 7 win guarantee. Nate Silver doesn't report a margin I'll assume because BP's projections are based upon Pecota weighted means. When the Pecota cards come out you can get an appreciation for the spread in individual player projections.
    thanks

    Looks like Wayne has done a pretty good job turning this thing around.
    Assuming that confidence interval is close to how PECOTA feels about the Reds, that gives us no hope at the NL Central. I would think the Reds would have one of the larger intervals because of all of the young, volatile pitching...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    The Brewers always seem to do better in the preseason polls than they finish up with.
    this is hardly a preseason poll...

    what's that... Michigan #5!?
    Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 02-16-2008 at 03:16 PM.
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."


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