Pecota Projects the NL Central....

[jojo]

Pecota predicts the '08 Reds to finish in third at 79-83. They're projected to be 10 back of the Cubs and 8 back of the Brew crew. Pecota thinks the Mets are the cream of the NL.

Pecota's projection for the NL central isn't too far out of line with a recent Diamond Mind projection that was published on the Replacement Level Yankees weblog.

These two projections suggest the Reds still have quite a bit of work to do (i.e. they still need to find 10 additional wins-100 runs-somewhere).

Comments, thoughts, arguments?

[*BaseClogger*]

I hope you don't mind I comment on something outside of the NL Central-did you see the AL West!? The A's second, Rangers third, and Mariners FOURTH! Way to go A's, and as for the Mariners, I guess Bedard won't put them over the hump. Alwell, these are just projections. We all know how that silly projection for the White Sox (72-90) went last year ...

[WMR]

Are you trying to give jojo a coronary, baseclogger?

The M's are his team.

[jojo]

I hope you don't mind I comment on something outside of the NL Central-did you see the AL West!? The A's second, Rangers third, and Mariners FOURTH! Way to go A's, and as for the Mariners, I guess Bedard won't put them over the hump. Alwell, these are just projections. We all know how that silly projection for the White Sox (72-90) went last year ...

A lot of people might be surprised by the As this season. A lot of people might be surprised by the Ms too (pitching, pitching, pitching.....what?).

A lot of people might also by surprised by the Rays as well. Not me though. Just bought a Tampa jersey.

[*BaseClogger*]

A lot of people might be surprised by the As this season. A lot of people might be surprised by the Ms too (pitching, pitching, pitching.....what?).

A lot of people might also by surprised by the Rays as well. Not me though. Just bought a Tampa jersey.

I wouldn't mind buying a James Shields jersey. I love the way he pitches. Oh yeah, and he carried my fantasy baseball team last year

[jojo]

Are you trying to give jojo a coronary, baseclogger?

The M's are his team.

I have a hard time seeing where the runs will come from too....

[*BaseClogger*]

What did PECOTA project for the Reds last season?

And are there percentiles for like what our ceiling is as far as wins and what our floor is?

[jojo]

I wouldn't mind buying a James Shields jersey. I love the way he pitches. Oh yeah, and he carried my fantasy baseball team last year

I love the underdog so this should be a fun season.

The Ms need a miracle, the Reds just need lots of things to go right and my guilty pleasure in the AL east just needs to not be eliminated before labor day for a moral victory.

[WMR]

I have a hard time seeing where the runs will come from too....

GIVE US KING FELIX!!!!!!!

[fearofpopvol1]

I think that's a pretty fair projection, overall.

I'm not sure though I see the Brew Crew winning 87 games, though I do think they'll finish ahead of the Reds. Am I alone here?

And Jojo, since you're a big stat guy, if the Reds somehow landed Blanton, how many wins would he be worth to the team? I'm assuming not enough...but just for the sake of curiosity.

[Highlifeman21]

I know this is a .500 team at best, so 79 wins is a fair estimate.

IMO, they are only a 75 win team.



Still too many pitching questions marks, and the offense isn't as good as advertised.

[jojo]

What did PECOTA project for the Reds last season?

Pecota projected the '07 Reds to be 71-91.

And are there percentiles for like what our ceiling is as far as wins and what our floor is?

The diamond mind projection comes with a +/- 7 win guarantee. Nate Silver doesn't report a margin I'll assume because BP's projections are based upon Pecota weighted means. When the Pecota cards come out you can get an appreciation for the spread in individual player projections.

[BCubb2003]

The Brewers always seem to do better in the preseason polls than they finish up with.

[*BaseClogger*]

Pecota projected the '07 Reds to be 71-91.

The diamond mind projection comes with a +/- 7 win guarantee. Nate Silver doesn't report a margin I'll assume because BP's projections are based upon Pecota weighted means. When the Pecota cards come out you can get an appreciation for the spread in individual player projections.

thanks

Looks like Wayne has done a pretty good job turning this thing around.
Assuming that confidence interval is close to how PECOTA feels about the Reds, that gives us no hope at the NL Central. I would think the Reds would have one of the larger intervals because of all of the young, volatile pitching...

[*BaseClogger*]

The Brewers always seem to do better in the preseason polls than they finish up with.

this is hardly a preseason poll...

what's that... Michigan #5!?