With new Coach Richy Rich Fraudriguez, the Wolverines will be ranked #1...with a bullett.Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*
what's that... Michigan #5!?
With new Coach Richy Rich Fraudriguez, the Wolverines will be ranked #1...with a bullett.what's that... Michigan #5!?
I've never scene such vitriol for a coach as I have from you WVU fans.With new Coach Richy Rich Fraudriguez, the Wolverines will be ranked #1...with a bullett.
Charming it is.
School's out. What did you expect?
I was serious. He's one helluva coach. He'll win plenty.
It's his integrity that gets to me, but winning is the only thing.
Well in the scenario where Hopper and Freel get that many at-bats, as Jojo said, there would have to be serious injury issues in the OF.
After that, if Freel and Hopper get injured, there only going to be worse players getting at-bats. Those guys getting injured wouldn't help unless we had an array of younger, better alterntives in house. Which we don't.
About the Ms - for some reason PECOTA seems to struggle with Japanese players. I've had Ichiro & Jojima on my fantasy teams for years, and I use PECOTA for my drafts every year, and PECOTA always way undershoots both players production. Not sure why that is.
Seems like a few teams are given a little too much credit as well.
Oakland has a lot of rosy pitching predictions I wouldn't bet money on.
And 72 wins for the Giants is a stretch. That team is going to be Awful with a Capital A. Have you seen that lineup? Wow...just wow.
Houston will struggle to get 74 as well. They've got Oswalt and four stiffs as a rotation.
I really like Wandy Rodriguez
Yep, that's pretty much the difference between PECOTA's take and my own take; PECOTA's take is more on the low end for me. Right now I have the Reds pinned down for around 82-83 wins, but that's just guessing how the roster will shape up for most of the season. I should also add that a lot of that "guessing" on the roster includes "hoping" that certain bad players just won't be on it.
I do think the Reds' youth makes this a much more volatile bunch than we've seen in past seasons. In past seasons, I was pretty comfortable with a +/- error margin of only a few games each way, but I can see scenarios in which the Reds win as few as 77 games and as many as possibly 86 or 87 games.
IMO, the Reds do actually have enough talent in the organization to compete for the NL Central title if 87ish wins can win the division. The problem is we're likely to see poor roster management that hands playing time to bad players and cuts down the win total by a game or three.
The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
FWIW, I sent Nate Silver an email asking about the playing time projections -- I doubt I'll hear back from him (I'm 0-3 so far) though. Will Carroll on the other hand is 2-2. By the way, Will posted on a guest article on C Trent's blog -- a nice little Reds themed PECOTA primer.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Good luck hearing back from Silver. I sent him an two last year - one of my big pet peeves is that BPs entire stat area has eight bajillion stats available for viewing except OPS - and it's not like OPS is trademarked or someone else's IP. I also let him know when some rate stats didn't seem to be correct in one of his columns and he didn't respond to either.
Which is opposite of the rest of the BP staff who usually get right back to you.
And Will Carroll's good people - he used to be a Redszone poster after all.
Note to self- BaseClogger likes to have James Shields on his fantasy teams. I'll keep this info in mind BC!!! LOL!!!I wouldn't mind buying a James Shields jersey. I love the way he pitches. Oh yeah, and he carried my fantasy baseball team last year
As far as Pecota and the Reds finishing 3rd, I think that sounds right. Coming up with the 100 runs shouldn't be too much of a challenge IF Bruce and Votto perform as expected and the team can stay relatively healthy. The 10 additional wins (and even more) will come from Arroyo having a better year; Matt Belisle maturing another year; the bullpen not blowing 4 potential wins each of the last two years that would have made Harang a 20 games winner in '06 and '07 with - Cordero,Weathers, Burton +the others ;plus two of the following three win 10 games each in 2008-Bailey, Cueto and/or Volquez. Who would have thought Tom Browning would have won 20 games as a rookie? So getting 20 wins total from those three hopefully won't be a reach.
You know if everything fell right...... nah, not gonna do it. LOL!!!
http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php
Have you seen the latest update? Pecota projects the Rays to win 89 games with the best RA in the AL.
"Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons
I hadn't noticed their latest tweak. Baseball is more interesting with a third party seriously contending to knock one of the big dogs out of the playoffs in AL east IMHO.
I hope it happens.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Sure, of course, from my perspective, it would kind of suck, because I know which AL east "big dog" CAN be knocked off, and it's not going to be the one in NY. Also, the Jays did do it in '06, just not well enough to put themselves in the playoff picture instead.
"Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons
bump
not a particularly impressive set of projections -- but that's baseball
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