10 years later: Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects of 1998

[savafan]

I think this list speaks volumes about the rating of prospects. 10 years later, it's a very underwhelming list of somebodies, wannabes, and never weres.

1. Ben Grieve, of, Athletics
2. Paul Konerko, 1b/3b, Dodgers
3. Adrian Beltre, 3b, Dodgers
4. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3b, Pirates
6. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays
7. Kris Benson, rhp, Pirates
8. Travis Lee, 1b, Diamondbacks
9. Carl Pavano, rhp, Expos
10. Miguel Tejada, ss, Athletics
11. Todd Helton, 1b, Rockies
12. Mark Kotsay, of, Marlins
13. Chad Hermansen, 2b, Pirates
14. Brad Fullmer, 1b, Expos
15. Juan Encarnacion, of, Tigers
16. Matt Clement, rhp, Padres
17. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
18. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
19. Richard Hidalgo, of, Astros
20. Sean Casey, 1b, Indians
21. Darnell McDonald, of, Orioles
22. Brian Rose, rhp, Red Sox
23. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
24. Matt Anderson, rhp, Tigers
25. Eric Milton, lhp, Twins
26. Russell Branyan, 3b, Indians
27. Bruce Chen, lhp, Braves
28. Scott Elarton, rhp, Astros
29. Grant Roberts, rhp, Mets
30. Eric Chavez, 3b, Athletics
31. Cesar King, c, Rangers
32. Dermal Brown, of, Royals
33. Eli Marrero, c, Cardinals
34. Mike Caruso, ss, White Sox
35. Ryan Minor, 3b, Orioles
36. Troy Glaus, 3b, Angels
37. Rolando Arrojo, rhp, Devil Rays
38. Roy Halladay, rhp, Blue Jays
39. Braden Looper, rhp, Cardinals
40. Ruben Rivera, of, Padres
41. Francisco Cordero, rhp, Tigers
42. A. J. Hinch, c, Athletics
43. Carlos Lee, 3b, White Sox
44. Luis Rivera, rhp, Braves
45. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks
46. Ricky Ledee, of, Yankees
47. Derrek Lee, 1b, Marlins
48. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Marlins
49. Ben Davis, c, Padres
50. Willie Martinez, rhp, Indians
51. Michael Coleman, of, Red Sox
52. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
53. Ben Petrick, c, Rockies
54. Jason Grilli, rhp, Giants
55. Luis Rivas, ss, Twins
56. Magglio Ordonez, of, White Sox
57. Julio Ramirez, of, Marlins
58. Ryan Brannan, rhp, Phillies
59. Mike Judd, rhp, Dodgers
60. Ed Yarnall, lhp, Mets
61. Enrique Wilson, 2b, Indians
62. Damian Jackson, ss, Reds
63. Corey Lee, lhp, Rangers
64. Lance Berkman, of, Astros
65. Abraham Nunez, ss, Pirates
66. Joe Fontenot, rhp, Marlins
67. Shawn Chacon, rhp, Rockies
68. Robbie Bell, rhp, Braves
69. Brent Butler, ss, Cardinals
70. Preston Wilson, of, Mets
71. Mike Lowell, 3b, Yankees
72. Rafael Medina, rhp, Marlins
73. Jarrod Washburn, lhp, Angels
74. Ramon Hernandez, c, Athletics
75. Ramon Oritz, rhp, Angels
76. Wade Miller, rhp, Astros
77. Karim Garcia, of, Diamondbacks
78. Sidney Ponson, rhp, Orioles
79. Robinson Checo, rhp, Red Sox
80. Lorenzo Barcelo, rhp, White Sox
81. Derrick Gibson, of, Rockies
82. Gil Meche, rhp, Mariners
83. Javier Vazquez, rhp, Expos
84. David Ortiz, 1b, Twins
85. Nelson Lara, rhp, Marlins
86. Juan Melo, ss, Padres
87. Todd Dunwoody, of, Marlins
88. Chris Reitsma, rhp, Red Sox
89. Valerio de los Santos, lhp, Brewers
90. Jeff Wallace, lhp, Pirates
91. Dennis Reyes, lhp, Dodgers
92. Orlando Cabrera, 2b, Expos
93. George Lombard, of, Braves
94. Lariel Gonzalez, rhp, Rockies
95. Geoff Jenkins, of, Brewers
96. Geoff Goetz, lhp, Mets
97. Daryle Ward, 1b, Astros
98. Jackson Melian, of, Yankees
99. Kevin Witt, 1b, Blue Jays
100. Chris Enochs, rhp, Athletics

[LincolnparkRed]

# 38 Didn't turn out too bad

[Screwball]

# 38 Didn't turn out too bad

Same with #64 and 84.

[RedsManRick]

Looks to me like being in the top 20 is a pretty good sign that you'll be a decent major leaguer. After that, it's a total crapshoot. That said, I find it interesting that the best players are fairly well distributed throughout that list, with some of the very best towards the bottom.

2. Paul Konerko, 1b/3b, Dodgers
3. Adrian Beltre, 3b, Dodgers
4. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3b, Pirates
7. Kris Benson, rhp, Pirates
9. Carl Pavano, rhp, Expos

10. Miguel Tejada, ss, Athletics
11. Todd Helton, 1b, Rockies
15. Juan Encarnacion, of, Tigers
16. Matt Clement, rhp, Padres
18. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals

20. Sean Casey, 1b, Indians
25. Eric Milton, lhp, Twins.

30. Eric Chavez, 3b, Athletics
33. Eli Marrero, c, Cardinals
36. Troy Glaus, 3b, Angels
38. Roy Halladay, rhp, Blue Jays
39. Braden Looper, rhp, Cardinals

41. Francisco Cordero, rhp, Tigers
43. Carlos Lee, 3b, White Sox
47. Derrek Lee, 1b, Marlins
48. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Marlins

52. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
56. Magglio Ordonez, of, White Sox

64. Lance Berkman, of, Astros
67. Shawn Chacon, rhp, Rockies

70. Preston Wilson, of, Mets
71. Mike Lowell, 3b, Yankees
73. Jarrod Washburn, lhp, Angels
74. Ramon Hernandez, c, Athletics
75. Ramon Oritz, rhp, Angels
76. Wade Miller, rhp, Astros
78. Sidney Ponson, rhp, Orioles

82. Gil Meche, rhp, Mariners
83. Javier Vazquez, rhp, Expos
84. David Ortiz, 1b, Twins

91. Dennis Reyes, lhp, Dodgers
92. Orlando Cabrera, 2b, Expos
95. Geoff Jenkins, of, Brewers

[remdog]

It's a good reality check for those that think that Bailey, Cueto, Votto and Bruce are all going to be stars at the major league level. It's a nice dream but the odds of it happening are very, very long.

Rem

[Johnny Footstool]

Rate 'em:

A = Perennial All-Star (Helton, Halladay, Berkman)
B = Quality Major Leaguer - had a few good years (Casey, Chavez, Clement, Preston Wilson, Beltre)
C = Journeyman (Branyan, Kotsay, Chen, Dennis Reyes)
D = Only a whiff of the majors (Grieve, Ryan Minor, Dermal Brown, Ben Petrick)
F = Never made it to the majors

[fearofpopvol1]

I like the fact that at the time the list was printed, the Reds had 1 in the entire top 100. Damian Jackson. I don't even remember him. Was he any good?

[Screwball]

Rate 'em:

A = Perennial All-Star (Helton, Halladay, Berkman)
B = Quality Major Leaguer - had a few good years (Casey, Chavez, Clement, Preston Wilson, Beltre)
C = Journeyman (Branyan, Kotsay, Chen, Dennis Reyes)
D = Only a whiff of the majors (Grieve, Ryan Minor, Dermal Brown, Ben Petrick)
F = Never made it to the majors

Not to nitpick, but I'd probably rate Grieve closer to a B than a D. He played for 9 seasons, won Rookie of the Year in '98, and had 4 full seasons with an OPS+ of 111 or better (123, 118, 116, and 111) with a career OPS+ of 113.

[Chip R]

I count 12 guys that JimBo acquired while he was here.

[savafan]

I like the fact that at the time the list was printed, the Reds had 1 in the entire top 100. Damian Jackson. I don't even remember him. Was he any good?

July 31, 1997: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Jim Crowell, Danny Graves, and Scott Winchester to the Cincinnati Reds for Jeff Branson and John Smiley.

February 2, 1999: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds with Josh Harris (minors) and Reggie Sanders to the San Diego Padres for Mark Sweeney and Greg Vaughn.

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG *OPS+  TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP 
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
 1996 22 CLE AL   5   10    2    3   2  0   0    1   0  0   1   4  .300  .364  .500  117    5   0   0   0   0   0
 1997 23 TOT     20   36    8    7   2  1   1    2   2  1   4   8  .194  .293  .389   75   14   1   0   1   1   0
         CLE AL   8    9    2    1   0  0   0    0   1  0   0   1  .111  .200  .111  -16    1   0   0   0   1   0
         CIN NL  12   27    6    6   2  1   1    2   1  1   4   7  .222  .323  .481  106   13   1   0   1   0   0
 1998 24 CIN NL  13   38    4   12   5  0   0    7   2  0   6   4  .316  .400  .447  121   17   0   1   0   0   1
 1999 25 SDP NL 133  388   56   87  20  2   9   39  34 10  53 105  .224  .320  .356   77  138   0   3   3   3   2
 2000 26 SDP NL 138  470   68  120  27  6   6   37  28  6  62 108  .255  .345  .377   89  177   4   2   2   3   7
 2001 27 SDP NL 122  440   67  106  21  6   4   38  23  6  44 128  .241  .316  .343   78  151   2   3   2   6   6
 2002 28 DET AL  81  245   31   63  20  1   1   25  12  3  21  36  .257  .320  .359   87   88   2   3   0   3   3
 2003 29 BOS AL 109  161   34   42   7  0   1   13  16  8   8  28  .261  .294  .323   60   52   2   1   0   0   4
 2004 30 TOT     21   30    2    3   2  0   1    3   0  0   4  12  .100  .206  .267   21    8   0   0   2   0   0
         CHC NL   7   15    1    1   0  0   1    1   0  0   3   6  .067  .222  .267   25    4   0   0   2   0   0
         KCR AL  14   15    1    2   2  0   0    2   0  0   1   6  .133  .188  .267   16    4   0   0   0   0   0
 2005 31 SDP NL 118  275   44   70   9  0   5   23  15  2  30  45  .255  .335  .342   85   94   3   1   1   4   4
 2006 32 WSN NL  67  116   16   23   6  1   4   10   1  3  12  39  .198  .295  .371   74   43   3   0   0   4   1
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
 11 Seasons     827 2209  332  536 121 17  32  198 133 39 245 517  .243  .323  .356   81  787  17  14  11  24  28

[GADawg]

that was interesting....funny some of those guys don't seem to fall together chronologically in my mind for whatever reason.

Whatever happened to Richard Hidalgo and Ed Yarnell?

[Highlifeman21]

I count 12 guys that JimBo acquired while he was here.

So does that mean between them they had 60 tools?

[Reds Freak]

I like the fact that at the time the list was printed, the Reds had 1 in the entire top 100. Damian Jackson. I don't even remember him. Was he any good?

He never did anything with the Reds but he was included in the Greg Vaughn trade. He's bounced around a lot but did play quite a bit with Boston a few years back. Take a wild guess who he played for last in 2006!

Oops sava beat me to it...

[edabbs44]

I think lists like this are unfair to some prospects. While they do show that prospects are difficult to predict, it is unfair to compare a consensus top 10 prospect who has played well in AA and AAA to a guy like Matt White or Ruben Mateo, who were ranked based on projection even though they hadn't broken A ball yet.

I'll take my chances with our four. Blanton and the rest of them can stay where they are. Just make sure that the team around Votto, Bruce, Homer and Cueto is ready in a few years. Because they will be.

[M2]

I count 12 guys that JimBo acquired while he was here.

He had a 1998 fetish. He acquired three first rounders from the 1998 draft too (in addition to the guy he picked, Austin Kearns). A fifth 1998 first rounder, Bubba Crosby, also played for the Reds. In all I count 17 guys for the '98 top 100 who've been through the Reds organization.