Pretty crazy. Nothing like an 1100% raise. Work I've seen suggests that players typically get 40% of FA value in their first arb year, 60% in the 2nd, and 80% in the 3rd. That would value Howard at $25M in FA. Though I can't help but wonder if he's getting favorable treatment for getting screwed out of a year or two by Jim Thome's presence on the Phillies.
For a 28 year old with negative defensive value, good for Howard to get his money now. He's going to be a DH by the end of the decade, in my opinion.