Wow.Originally Posted by TRF
Then we are going to have to agree to disagree. I just can't fathom how anyone could think that only 1% of this deal hinges on Duran's ability as a player.
Signing an individual player doesn't build goodwill. Building an academy, maintaining a constant presence in the Dominican, and fostering relationships with coaches and communities is what builds goodwill. I don't think Jose '09 cares one whit about what the Reds paid Juan '08.
I think it all boils down to the fact that the FO has to trust the eyes and the ears that they have on site who have actually seen the kid play. If they have seen him play and say he is worth it, then you have to listen to what they are telling you. What's the point of having a scouting department and a presence in Latin America if you don't trust them? Evidently the new guy from Texas, Volquez, has actually seen Duran in person and has said that he is the real deal.
$2 million is a lot of cheese - no question. Especially on an unproven kid. But teams do that all the time. We wouldn't blink twice about dropping that kind of money on a high school aged top ten first round draft choice in June. Evidently, this unproven kid had caught the attention of several teams - not just the Reds. The Reds seem to have been the only one to have checked the "fine print" of the baseball rules (Must have been an O'Brien holdover!).
Had the Reds wound up in a bidding war with some of the other clubs over Duran, he probably would have cost a lot more. I think the fact that this signing took place without other immediate suitors, the tendency of previous Reds regiemes may have been to attempt to underpay and screw the kid out of fair market value. That didn't happen here, and I think that says more about the positive changes in the current FO.
I'm not denying that it's a huge risk. It is impossible to project where this kid will be six or eight years from now. It's a risk. But so is every amateur draft pick in June's draft. It's all one big crapshoot. That's why they have scouts. Hopefully, they weed out the obvious fizzle-outs and can spot more than a few that have the talent and tenacity to make it all the way to the big leagues.
Let's not let the past mistakes of a few scouts - some who are no longer even with the Reds - coerce us into making a snap judgement on Duran. The Reds' Latin American scouts have done fairly well the last couple years, and they should have earned a little respect. Let's observe how far Duran progresses over the next 2-3 years and see how this plays out.
In two years - 2010 - Duran will be the same age as most high school draft picks. Then the question will be: Does Duran show ability equal to a top ten high school draft pick in 2010? Unless he just bombs out right away, I think you have to wait two years minimum before you can make any kind of judgment call on good or how bad this deal is.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
The more and more I read about this kid the more I get excited. Everyone who has seen him play seems to be in awe of his talent and how great he can potentially be. I applaud this organization - the guys in charge have this organization going in the right direction IMO.
More On Juan Duran
Posted Mar. 6, 2008 12:39 pm by Ben Badler
Filed under: Daily Dish, International
Several members of the Reds front office have credited assistant general manager Bob Miller as the key person who realized that Juan Duran, a 16-year-old outfielder who the Reds signed for $2 million, was even eligible to sign before July 2.
Miller worked in the office of the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues (NAPBL, now known as Minor League Baseball) back when the rule that allowed the Reds to sign Duran was instituted in the 1980s.
"I went down there to see him and they handed me a roster," Miller said. "I asked him in Spanish what his birthday was, he told me, and we signed him very quietly. We didn’t want him shopping it around. We met with his family and his buscone that night before any word got out."
Duran is still in the Dominican Republic, but could arrive in the United States before the end of spring training.
"He’s a big kid, and as big as he is, he’s better developed than a lot of kids," Miller said. "He said he weighs 204, and he’s 6-5, 6-6 with big-time power."
Baseball America correspondent John Fay also checked in with new Reds acquisition Edinson Volquez, who has seen Duran play.
"I saw him hit two two home runs in two at-bats," Volquez said. "I saw him throw from the outfield. Unbelievable. I’ve never seen someone like that. He’s a little skinny right now. But he’s going to be really good."
The $2 million bonus the Reds gave to Duran is a franchise record for a bonus given to an international player, and is tied for the third-highest bonus in team history.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=769
I agree and the proactiveness is what really strikes me here.
The worst thing in the world for the Reds would have been for them to offer a big chunk of money, but not big enough that Juan could have said, "no thanks, I'll wait until July"
They had to offer him enough to not even test the market.
I wonder how the Reds top prospects will look going into '09. If the big 4 graduate the Reds for sure will drop from the 3rd spot in BA's list but they will still have a very solid farm system. That would leave (in no particular order) Stubbs, Mesoraco, Frazier, Francisco, maybe Roenicke, Lotzkar, Duran, and the No. 7 pick. Im sure a few of those will take a step back but there are still players like Wood, Soto, Waring, Dorn and a 2nd or 3rd round pick from the '08 draft that very easily could skyrocket through the system with a their potential.
I think this Duran signing is enormous for the Reds farm system.
Stubbs, Duran, and Frazier as possible top hitters to go with Lotzkar, Roenicke and maybe a top pitcher from this draft would still be a solid group hitters and pitchers. Then add possible long shots like Daryl Thompson or Chiu that could break out.
Ill take a Farm system of Stubbs, Mesoraco, Duran, Frazier, Francisco, Roenicke, Lotzkar, Soto, Wood, Waring, and Dorn plus the '08 draft any day of the week. With young guys like Bruce, Bailey, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Phillips, Encarnacion to go with veterns like Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero I believe the entire Reds franchise is going in the right direction.
Reds don't have a 2nd round pick in 2008, but other than that, great post.
$2 million worth of credibility
Dominican teen signing big step
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SARASOTA, Fla. - When Bob Castellini signed a $2 million check with Juan Duran's name on it last week, he sent one of the strongest signals yet that the Reds are ready to do what it takes to return to competitiveness.
Duran is a 16-year-old hot-shot outfielder from the Dominican Republic. There's no guarantee that he'll play an inning in Great American Ball Park. But Castellini was willing to take the big risk to become a factor in Latin America.
"Just watch a game on TV and look at all the players from the Caribbean," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said. "You've got to be a factor there."
The Duran signing shows the Reds are trying to open up the Latin connection again.
"I think it's a great step in that direction," said Walt Jocketty, a special adviser to Castellini. "It's one of the things Bob Castellini wants to do. This signing sends a pretty clear message that we're going to be aggressive in the market."
Castellini gets ripped occasionally for not throwing money at the Reds' problems. But this signing shows he has the foresight and checkbook to try to turn things around. It's a check neither Carl Lindner nor Marge Schott would write.
That's why you have only one Latin player in camp whom the Reds signed and developed with any shot of making the club. That's Johnny Cueto, he of the 97 mph fastball and drop-off-the-table changeup. Cueto might have the best stuff in camp. He was a bargain acquisition in 2004 - he signed for $3,500.
The Reds have trolled the bottom since they returned to scouting Latin America.
Signing Duran shows they are willing to pay the going rate for top players. That rate has climbed steadily in the last couple of years. A lot of clubs would like to see a worldwide draft to level the playing field.
Until that happens, teams have to try to compete. Top players in the Caribbean are controlled by a "buscone," a sort of agent/adviser.
"They're more than agents," assistant general manager Bob Miller said. "They sign up 13-, 14-year-old kids. They train them, house them, have their own fields."
The buscone, of course, wants a return on his investment.
"Unless you make a significant signing, the buscones won't even bring around the top kids," Buckley said. "This shows we're back in the game."
The Reds got a chance to sign Duran because Miller was able to interpret a rule in such a way to give the Reds a jump.
Most clubs thought Duran was not eligible to sign until July 2. It's complicated, but the Reds got around that by placing him on the Billings rookie-league roster. He won't play in Billings this year. He'll probably play in the Gulf Coast League.
"Bob Miller did a great job in understanding the rule," Jocketty said.
The rule since has been re-interpreted, Miller said, but the Reds' signing has been approved.
Castellini was not personally involved in the signing.
"They have a budget," Castellini said of his scouts. "They decide how to spend it."
The Duran signing is a risk. He's 6 feet 6, 190 pounds. His power rates 80 on the scouting scale of 20-80. He has good speed and an exceptional arm.
"He's very strong for a kid from the Dominican," Buckley said. "He'll get bigger. Most of the kids down there have never been in a weight room.
"But scouting in the Caribbean is more difficult. You can't go see Juan Duran play with his high school team or traveling team."
Buckley says Duran compares favorably with a No. 1 pick in the draft. It would be nice if he turns out to be another Jay Bruce.
But the bigger thing is the statement the signing makes. If the Reds can become a factor again in Latin America, the signing will be well worth the investment.
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...OL09/803090388
That's a great article, with great analysis. I had no clue about the connection thing. I knew we hadn't been a factor in Latin America, but I didn't think it would effect us if we went to sign somebody from down there. The more I think about this move, the more I love it.
-LTlabnerIf you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
Cueto for $3500? Sounds like the deal of the century so far.
Miguel cabrerra was pretty cheap as well... IIRC. In the neighborhood of 20K. Coulda been a red but we were to cheap.
"I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."
-Hunter S. Thompson
Fay came across like a crying, whining little girl.
WAAAHHHHHHHHH
If that is true, then Alejandro Pena should have had zero bearing on a subsequent signing of Cabrera.
Shouldn't have but did. Thank Marge /lindner and bowden.
"I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."
-Hunter S. Thompson
If they liked him that much and ownership signed off on that amount for Pena, I really can't see $20k being that much of an issue.
Unless, of course, the scouts were told that if they got signoff on Pena that they were done for the year in intl scouting.
It's easy to point fingers at ownership after the fact.
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