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Thread: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

  1. #151
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Again, I like the move. Maybe I should be fired from the ORG? :

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  3. #152
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    But one must consider the weight of the "except." You are predicting that Dickerson is a Patterson clone, but he could easily be a worse major league bat than Patterson because he has struggled in the minors with his bat, whereas Patterson had some minor league and spotty major league success. I don't understand the infatuation with a prospect in such scenarios with the flameout rates of so-called comparable performance expectations.
    Exactly.

  4. #153
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    But one must consider the weight of the "except." You are predicting that Dickerson is a Patterson clone, but he could easily be a worse major league bat than Patterson because he has struggled in the minors with his bat, whereas Patterson had some minor league and spotty major league success. I don't understand the infatuation with a prospect in such scenarios with the flameout rates of so-called comparable performance expectations.
    My problem isn't so much that Patterson is blocking a juggernaut like Dickerson (please note the sarcasm) it's more that he blocks Bruce. But if you are going to block Bruce why do it with such a known entity with so little upside? His career OBP is below .300. By all accounts, he can go get it in the OF, but by all accounts, so can Dickerson. So, what does he bring to the Reds? depth? sorry I don't see it.

    And what success did patterson ever have? 83 games in 2003. that's it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #154
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    My problem isn't so much that Patterson is blocking a juggernaut like Dickerson (please note the sarcasm) it's more that he blocks Bruce. But if you are going to block Bruce why do it with such a known entity with so little upside? His career OBP is below .300. By all accounts, he can go get it in the OF, but by all accounts, so can Dickerson. So, what does he bring to the Reds? depth? sorry I don't see it.

    And what success did patterson ever have? 83 games in 2003. that's it.
    The second half of 2007. Most of 2006. I guess we'll just have to see.

    Again, not saying he's the second coming. But he does have the upside to be a big upgrade over Hoppreelkerson. As far as comparing him to Dickerson specifically, I'd take the guy who can hit .270 in the majors over the guy who can't in AA. And as so many have pointed out, Jr.'s blocking Bruce, not whoever's playing CF.
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  6. #155
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Patterson may block Bruce in 2008(so may Hopper or Freel). After Jr is gone he will likely move to RF in 2009 but it certainly seems that Bruce is the best option in CF in 2008. I really have no idea what Dusty/WK might do with the roster at this point. Guys like Hopper, Patterson and Freel at replacement level or slightly above.
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  7. #156
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    What does PECOTA forecast for Patterson this year?

  8. #157
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Guys like Hopper, Patterson and Freel at replacement level or slightly above.
    Supposedly, Patterson is a significantly better defender in CF than either Hopper or Freel. Defense in CF matters.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  9. #158
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Patterson may block Bruce in 2008.
    Jr's blocking Bruce

  10. #159
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    The second half of 2007. Most of 2006. I guess we'll just have to see.

    Again, not saying he's the second coming. But he does have the upside to be a big upgrade over Hoppreelkerson. As far as comparing him to Dickerson specifically, I'd take the guy who can hit .270 in the majors over the guy who can't in AA. And as so many have pointed out, Jr.'s blocking Bruce, not whoever's playing CF.
    2006 was a success? color me stunned that anyone would think that a .757 OPS is a success. He did steal a bunch of bases whenever ho got on base, which wasn't that often. In fact, compare his 2006 to Felipe Lopez' 2006. similar SB totals, similar CS, similar OPS. break it down though and who is more valuable? a guy that can get on base, or one that can't?

    How about 2005 when he hit .215. Dude that's only .215 more than I hit, and I didn't even step foot on a mlb field.

    He's the definition of empty fill in the BA. He's OB challenged and is a power hitter that doesn't hit for power. You could say that he'll get a bump in O from the GABP, but he played in Wrigley and couldn't hit there. So, he's being brought in for defense. I'm fine with a defensive upgrade in CF, but Dickerson already is that. So is Bruce frankly.
    Last edited by TRF; 03-04-2008 at 11:35 AM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #160
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    What does PECOTA forecast for Patterson this year?
    90th Percentile: 482 PA, .295/.336/.458, 34/42 SB, 24.1 VORP
    Weighted Mean: 458 PA, .268/.307.402, 29/37 SB, 5.6 VORP
    10th Percentile: 343 PA, .226/.264/.319, 18/24 SB, -13.3 VORP

    Not a bad guy to have in your organization, but like Hopper, Freel, or Dickerson, not a guy worthy of blocking Jay Bruce. A platoon of him and one of the righties isn't a bad way to start the year, with Bruce coming up as soon as Junior hits the DL.

    Barring a miracle on the pitching staff, I seriously doubt we'll be in contention this year, Bruce or not. Another 100-200 PA in AAA won't hurt Bruce any and it will put off the start of his arb clock.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-04-2008 at 11:41 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #161
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Well, I think I'd prefer Patterson in CF over Farney or Hopper. At least he can play credible defense.
    The Reds have big defensive issues. We're talking massive. Not small....

    Patterson is a defensive upgrade over both Freel and Hopper. Unfortunately, he's an offensive downgrade from Freel, and I have a feeling once we see teams adjust to Norris "1 trick pony" Hopper and take away his bunting and his speed, that Patterson and Hopper will be equal offensively.

    Combine the CF conundrum with the SS conundrum, and we could possibly be looking at another stick vs. D battle. Janish (no stick all D) vs. Keppinger (no D all stick) vs. Rosales (worst D of the 3, ? on the stick). If the Reds choose to address the defensive woes, we could be looking at Janish @ SS and Patterson in CF. That means we're going to be looking for an unreasonable and impossible position of expected offensive production out of the other 6.

  13. #162
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Supposedly, Patterson is a significantly better defender in CF than either Hopper or Freel. Defense in CF matters.
    PECOTA thinks that Patterson is slightly better defender and a slightly better offensive player than either.

    Defense is important but who to play at any position is always a series of trade-offs.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  14. #163
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    2006 was a success? color me stunned that anyone would think that a .757 OPS is a success. He did steal a bunch of bases whenever ho got on base, which wasn't that often. In fact, compare his 2006 to Felipe Lopez' 2006. similar SB totals, similar CS, similar OPS. break it down though and who is more valuable? a guy that can get on base, or one that can't?

    How about 2005 when he hit .215. Dude that's only .215 more than I hit, and I didn't even step foot on a mlb field.

    He's the definition of empty fill in the BA. He's OB challenged and is a power hitter that doesn't hit for power. You could say that he'll get a bump in O from the GABP, but he played in Wrigley and couldn't hit there. So, he's being brought in for defense. I'm fine with a defensive upgrade in CF, but Dickerson already is that. So is Bruce frankly.

    I highly doubt Dickerson could put up a .780 OPS and steal 40 bases in the big leagues this year, which is what CP has done for the past two seasons in a much worse hitters park than GAB. And like I said before, I would look for him to improve on those numbers. We'll just have to see.

    Patterson's defense is an enormous upgrade to Freel or Hopper, which as lollipopcurve just said, is important in CF.

    Bruce, for better or worse, is a Right Fielder in this organization. Just like Phillips at 2B, people are just going to have to accept that.
    Go BLUE!!!

  15. #164
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Assuming Bruce starts the year in Louisville, I have no issue with Patterson in CF and batting 7th or 8th. Platoon him with either Freel or Hopper.

  16. #165
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Patterson and Hairston to minor league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    Jr's blocking Bruce
    yes and if Bruce is not playing in CF then whoever is playing that position is blocking him as well(no one has stated that he can't handle CF defensively). PECOTA thinks Bruce would be an upgrade over Jr in RF and Hopper/Freel/Patterson in CF.

    When you look at the Reds best choices for an OF taking offense and defense into account the optimal alignment is rather simple, Dunn in LF, Bruce in CF and Jr in RF.
    Last edited by flyer85; 03-04-2008 at 11:55 AM.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


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